National Security:
Long-Range Emerging Threats Facing the United States As Identified by Federal Agencies
GAO-19-204SP: Published: Dec 13, 2018. Publicly Released: Dec 13, 2018.
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Brian M. Mazanec
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Threats to U.S. national security continue to evolve with technological, economic, and social changes.
Federal agencies identified 26 long-term threats within 4 categories:
1) Adversaries' Political and Military Advancements—e.g., China's increasing ability to match the U.S. military's strength.
2) Dual-Use Technologies—e.g., self-driving cars might be developed for private use, but militaries can use them too.
3) Weapons—advances in weapons technology, e.g., cyberweapons.
4) Events and Demographic Changes—e.g., infectious disease outbreaks.
GAO's Four Broad Categories for Long-Range Emerging Threats Identified by Federal Agencies
This is an illustration of GAO's categories for long-range emerging threats identified by federal agencies.
Additional Materials:
- Highlights Page:
- Full Report:
- Accessible Version:
- Related WatchBlog Post:
Contact:
(202) 512-9971
KirschbaumJ@gao.gov
Brian M. Mazanec
(202) 512-5130
mailto:MazanecB@gao.gov
Office of Public Affairs
(202) 512-4800
youngc1@gao.gov
What GAO Found
DOD, State, DHS, and ODNI independently identified various threats to the United States or its national security interests. In analyzing more than 210 individual threats identified by organizations across DOD, State, DHS, and ODNI, as well as its review of national security strategies and related documents, and interviews with key agency officials, GAO developed four broad categories for 26 longrange emerging threats that officials identified: Adversaries' Political and Military Advancements, Dual-Use Technologies, Weapons, and Events and Demographic Changes.
Emerging Threats As Identified by DOD, State, DHS, and ODNI
Why GAO Did This Study
The United States faces a complex array of threats to our national security, including our political, economic, military, and social systems. These threats will continue to evolve as new and resurgent adversaries develop politically and militarily, as weapons and technology advance, and as environmental and demographic changes occur. A House committee report accompanying a bill for the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018 included a provision for GAO to identify emerging threats of high national security consequence. This report focuses on long-range emerging threats--those that may occur in approximately 5 or more years, or those that may occur during an unknown timeframe--as identified by various respondents at the Department of Defense (DOD), Department of State (State), Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI).
To identify long-range emerging threats, GAO administered a questionnaire to 45 government organizations that assess emerging threats across DOD, State, DHS, and ODNI, and had a 78-percent response rate. GAO conducted a content analysis of the responses to identify specific threats and develop broad threat categories. To supplement the data from the questionnaire, GAO reviewed national security strategies and agency documents provided by DOD, State, DHS, and ODNI, and interviewed key agency officials. This report is a public version of a classified report that GAO issued on September 28, 2018. Information that DOD deemed classified and sensitive has been omitted.
Jan 21, 2021
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Chemical Security:
Overlapping Programs Could Better Collaborate to Share Information and Identify Potential Security GapsGAO-21-12: Published: Jan 21, 2021. Publicly Released: Jan 21, 2021.
Jan 19, 2021
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DHS Annual Assessment:
Most Acquisition Programs Are Meeting Goals but Data Provided to Congress Lacks Context Needed For Effective OversightGAO-21-175: Published: Jan 19, 2021. Publicly Released: Jan 19, 2021.
Dec 16, 2020
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Coast Guard:
Actions Needed to Improve National Vessel Documentation Center OperationsGAO-21-100: Published: Dec 16, 2020. Publicly Released: Dec 16, 2020.
Nov 23, 2020
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Southwest Border:
Information on Federal Agencies' Process for Acquiring Private Land for BarriersGAO-21-114: Published: Nov 17, 2020. Publicly Released: Nov 23, 2020.
Nov 12, 2020
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Coast Guard Acquisitions:
Opportunities Exist to Reduce Risk for the Offshore Patrol Cutter ProgramGAO-21-9: Published: Oct 28, 2020. Publicly Released: Nov 12, 2020.
Oct 29, 2020
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TSA Acquisitions:
TSA Needs to Establish Metrics and Evaluate Third Party Testing Outcomes for Screening TechnologiesGAO-21-50: Published: Oct 29, 2020. Publicly Released: Oct 29, 2020.
Oct 20, 2020
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Homeland Security Acquisitions:
DHS Has Opportunities to Improve Its Component Acquisition OversightGAO-21-77: Published: Oct 20, 2020. Publicly Released: Oct 20, 2020.
Sep 30, 2020
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Disaster Assistance:
Additional Actions Needed to Strengthen FEMA's Individuals and Households ProgramGAO-20-503: Published: Sep 30, 2020. Publicly Released: Sep 30, 2020. -
Supplemental Material for GAO-20-503:
FEMA Individuals and Households Program Applicant Data 2016 – 2018GAO-20-675SP: Published: Sep 30, 2020. Publicly Released: Sep 30, 2020. -
Supplemental Material for GAO-20-503:
Select Disaster Profiles for FEMA's Individuals and Households Program 2016-2018GAO-20-674SP: Published: Sep 30, 2020. Publicly Released: Sep 30, 2020.
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