Credit Reform: U.S. Needs Better Methods for Estimating Cost of Foreign Loans and Guarantees
NSIAD/GGD-95-31
Published: Dec 19, 1994. Publicly Released: Dec 19, 1994.
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Highlights
Pursuant to a legislative requirement and a congressional request, GAO reviewed the Executive Branch's methodology for calculating country risk ratings and cost estimates for foreign loans and loan guarantees, focusing on the: (1) default rates for beneficiary countries; and (2) executive branch's authority to reschedule international debt owed to the U.S. government.
Recommendations
Matter for Congressional Consideration
| Matter | Status | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Because of the greater difficulty in making risk estimates for international credit programs, Congress may wish to consider how the principles included in the Credit Reform Act ought to be applied to direct international lending and lending guaranteed by the U.S. government. | Congress did not take up the issue during its last session. |
Recommendations for Executive Action
| Agency Affected | Recommendation | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Office of Management and Budget | The Director, OMB, should revise the Executive Branch's method of estimating the cost of country risk so that it econometrically utilizes available information from the secondary market on how prices are affected by country risk and other debt characteristics. |
OMB officials indicate that they do not intend to respond to the recommendations in the report beyond their comment letter of September 8, 1994.
|
| Office of Management and Budget | The Director, OMB, should ensure that the Interagency Country Risk Assessment System's rating method is revised so that it makes greater use of empirically tested criteria and weights. |
OMB officials indicate that they do not intend to respond to the recommendations in the report beyond their comment letter of September 8, 1994.
|
| Office of Management and Budget | The Director, OMB, should ensure that agencies make initial estimates of subsidy costs that include estimates of potential rescheduling at below-market rates. |
OMB officials indicate that they do not intend to respond to the recommendations in the report beyond their comment letter of September 8, 1994.
|
| Office of Management and Budget | The Director, OMB, should ensure that agencies make annual re-estimates of subsidy costs. |
OMB officials indicate that they do not intend to respond to the recommendations in the report beyond their comment letter of September 8, 1994.
|
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Topics
Debt collectionEconomic analysisEvaluation methodsForeign economic development creditForeign loansGovernment guaranteed loansInternational economic relationsLoan defaultsProjectionsRisk management