Defense Analysis: Additional Actions Could Enhance DOD's Wargaming Efforts
Fast Facts
"Wargames" are simulations of conflict that DOD uses to prepare for actual warfare. Organizations within DOD and external providers—such as federally-funded research centers and contractors—provide wargames. But DOD hasn't assessed the risks of relying on external providers.
We identified steps DOD takes to ensure quality wargames. However, DOD stores wargame information in systems that don't share data with others, which hinders collaboration. Also, none of the five military services have established standard education or qualifications for their wargamers.
Our 10 recommendations would improve wargaming across the department.
Marine Corps Wargames, Quantico, VA
Highlights
What GAO Found
Wargames—representations of conflict in which the game's players make decisions and respond to the consequences of those decisions—are used widely across the Department of Defense (DOD) to provide insights on challenges and to inform decisions. DOD and other wargame providers plan, conduct, and analyze wargames (see figure), and DOD uses the results in conjunction with other analytic methods like military exercises and modeling. For example, in May 2022, GAO observed a Navy contested logistics wargame that included over 200 participants from over 40 organizations across DOD as well as international partners. The Navy planned to use the results to inform logistics planning in support of a distributed naval force.
General Department of Defense (DOD) Wargaming Process 
A number of internal DOD organizations operate as wargame providers, and DOD also uses external wargame providers—federally funded research and development centers and contractors. The mix of wargame providers used across DOD varies and comes with advantages and disadvantages including varying capacity, timeliness, information access, expertise, and independence. However, DOD has not assessed its use of wargame providers, including the sufficiency of its internal wargaming capabilities or the risks associated with relying on external wargame providers. As such, DOD's wargaming resources may be misaligned.
GAO identified 13 common quality principles DOD organizations use to guide their wargaming. DOD has collaborative wargame forums, information systems, and some education related to wargames. However, GAO found that there are barriers to accessing wargame data, information on upcoming wargames is not shared, and the services have not developed standard education and qualifications for wargamers. Addressing these issues would enhance the effectiveness of DOD's wargaming efforts.
Why GAO Did This Study
Wargames are an analytic method that can provide valuable insights to complex problems and inform decisions about warfighting concepts, capabilities, and plans. DOD credits wargames with making key contributions to military planning for pivotal operations in the Pacific during World War II. In 2015, DOD began an initiative to reinvigorate wargaming in line with the strategic shift to prepare for near-peer power competition. GAO was asked to review DOD's use of analytic wargames. This report examines: (1) the scope of DOD's wargaming activities; (2) DOD's use of internal and external wargame providers; and (3) the extent to which DOD ensures wargame quality.
GAO analyzed wargame data for fiscal years 2017 through 2021; relevant DOD guidance and documentation; and leading practices for wargame quality. GAO also observed wargames and interviewed wargaming officials from DOD and external wargame providers.
Recommendations
GAO is making 10 recommendations to DOD, including to assess the use of internal and external wargame providers; develop effective approaches for managing wargame data and sharing information about upcoming wargames; and evaluate the costs and benefits of developing standard wargaming education and qualifications. DOD concurred with our recommendations.
Recommendations for Executive Action
| Agency Affected | Recommendation | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Department of Defense | The Secretary of Defense should ensure that the appropriate officials conduct an assessment of the department's use of internal and external wargaming providers, including the sufficiency of its internal wargaming capabilities, to identify any risks or gaps. (Recommendation 1) |
DOD concurred with our recommendation and stated that the National Defense University will conduct an independent assessment of the use, sufficiency, risks, and gaps of wargame providers. As of November 2024, DOD has not provided an update on the status of this assessment. We will continue to monitor DOD's actions to implement this recommendation.
|
| Department of Defense | The Secretary of Defense should ensure, following a completed assessment of the department's use of internal and external wargame providers, that the appropriate officials take actions to address or mitigate any identified risks or gaps. (Recommendation 2) |
DOD concurred with our recommendation. DOD added that following the completion of the National Defense University's assessment per recommendation 1, the Analysis Working Group will develop appropriate responses and/or mitigation measures to any issues identified. The Analysis Working Group will then begin implementing the mitigations in 2024. As of November 2024, DOD has not provided updates on the assessments or actions taken to address any identified issues. We will continue to monitor DOD's actions to implement this recommendation.
|
| Department of Defense | The Secretary of Defense should ensure the Analysis Working Group develops and implements a department-wide approach for effectively sharing wargame data that, at a minimum, establishes requirements or standards for reporting wargame data and addresses the fragmentation of data across multiple systems. (Recommendation 3) |
DOD concurred with our recommendation and funded a study with the Institute for Defense Analyses to develop a knowledge management strategy to meet the Analysis Working Group's knowledge management objectives. The study is expected to result in recommendations for near-term knowledge management activities (analytic master calendar and visibility of interim analytic results) and a long-term strategy for how DOD can improve knowledge management in the future, including recommendations to increase the awareness and transparency of strategic analysis activities such as wargames. As of November 2024, DOD has not provided an update on the status of this study. We will continue to monitor DOD's actions to implement this recommendation.
|
| Department of Defense | The Secretary of Defense should identify a lead organization to create and maintain a common operational picture or master calendar for wargames. (Recommendation 4) |
DOD concurred with our recommendation and stated that after receiving the results of the knowledge management study referenced in recommendation 3, the Analysis Working Group will recommend an organization to lead the creation and maintenance of a common operational picture or master calendar for wargames. As of November 2024, DOD has not provided an update on the study or any actions taken on its results. We will continue to monitor DOD's actions to implement this recommendation.
|
| Department of Defense | The Secretary of Defense should issue guidance requiring DOD organizations to share information about their planned wargames with the lead organization designated to maintain a common operational picture or master calendar for wargames. (Recommendation 5) |
DOD concurred with our recommendation. DOD stated that after receiving the results of the knowledge management study referenced in recommendation 3 and designating a lead for managing a master calendar of wargames discussed in recommendation 4, the Analysis Working Group will draft guidance that requires organizations to share information about their planned wargames. As of November 2024, DOD has not provided an update on the study or any actions taken in response to it. We will continue to monitor DOD's actions to implement this recommendation.
|
| Department of the Army | The Secretary of the Army should evaluate the costs and benefits of developing standard wargaming education and qualifications for wargaming personnel, including red cell players, and implement any findings from the evaluation. (Recommendation 6) |
DOD concurred with our recommendation. The Army stated that it intends to create a wargaming Additional Skill Identifier and attach this qualification to select positions, in addition to offering more frequent wargaming courses, a wargaming facilitator course, and a red-cell training course. The Army added that full implementation of these actions is contingent upon additional funding. As of November 2024, the Army has not provided an update on the status of these efforts. We will continue to monitor the Army's actions to implement this recommendation.
|
| Department of the Navy | The Secretary of the Navy should evaluate the costs and benefits of developing standard wargaming education and qualifications for wargaming personnel, including red cell players, and implement any findings from the evaluation. (Recommendation 7) |
DOD concurred with our recommendation. The Navy stated that its wargaming instruction will be reviewed on annual basis. As a part of the annual review, the Naval War College will work with the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations and the Naval Postgraduate School in finding the best approach to establish standard education and qualifications for career/uniformed wargaming personnel. The Navy added that these findings will be codified in subsequent annual iterations of its instruction. As of November 2024, the Navy has not provided an update to these efforts. We will continue to monitor the Navy's actions to implement this recommendation.
|
| Department of the Navy | The Secretary of the Navy should ensure the Commandant of the Marine Corps evaluates the costs and benefits of developing standard wargaming education and qualifications for wargaming personnel, including red cell players, and implements any findings from the evaluation. (Recommendation 8) |
DOD concurred with our recommendation. The Marine Corps stated that the new Marine Corps Wargaming and Analysis Center will standardize wargaming education and qualifications for the service's wargaming personnel, to include red cell players. This is due to expanding the number of personnel, including an organic intelligence section. This central hub of service-level wargaming activity will foster standardization of qualifications, as a dedicated core of professionals with subject matter expertise will be responsible for the service's wargaming. As of November 2024, the Marine Corps has not provided an update of these efforts. We will continue to monitor the Marine Corps' actions to implement this recommendation.
|
| Department of the Air Force | The Secretary of the Air Force should evaluate the costs and benefits of developing standard wargaming education and qualifications for wargaming personnel, including red cell players, and implement any findings from the evaluation. (Recommendation 9) |
DOD concurred with our recommendation. The Air Force stated that Air Force Headquarters will evaluate the costs and benefits of developing standard wargaming and education and qualifications for wargaming personnel, and implement findings from the evaluation. As of November 2024, the Air Force has not provided an update on its efforts. We will continue to monitor the Air Force's actions to implement this recommendation.
|
| Department of the Air Force | The Secretary of the Air Force should ensure the Chief of Space Operations evaluates the costs and benefits of developing standard wargaming education and qualifications for wargaming personnel, including red cell players, and implements any findings from the evaluation. (Recommendation 10) |
DOD concurred with our recommendation. Space Force stated that its Headquarters will evaluate the costs and benefits of developing standard wargaming education and qualifications for appropriate personnel. Space Force identified multiple wargame training courses for evaluation to identify the most effective courses of action, but added that it must conduct an evaluation of training courses, feasibility assessment, course effectiveness, availability, cost of training, and temporary duty requirements prior to providing a formal recommendation for Chief of Space Operations approval. As of November 2024, Space Force has not provided an update on its efforts. We will continue to monitor Space Force's actions to implement this recommendation.
|