Outlook for Achieving Fiscal Year 1983 Offshore Revenue Estimate: Possible but Not Likely
EMD-82-83
Published: Jun 08, 1982. Publicly Released: Jun 14, 1982.
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Highlights
GAO was asked to review the Administration's estimate that Outer Continental Shelf revenues would total $18 billion for fiscal year (FY) 1983. Questions focused on: (1) the assumptions, data, and methodology used to develop the estimate; (2) the relationship of the estimate to prior years' receipts; (3) the accuracy of estimates for the past 10 years; (4) the role of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in developing the estimate; and (5) the difference between the Administration's estimate and the lesser estimate developed by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
Recommendations
Recommendations for Executive Action
| Agency Affected | Recommendation | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Department of the Interior | The Secretary of the Interior should evaluate future leasing experience against the methodology and assumptions used in the current forecasting model. Such analyses should lead to validations or necessary adjustments to the model needed to increase the reliability and confidence in future revenue forecasts. |
Interior officials do evaluate prior leasing experience to estimate future OCS revenues. These officials evaluated prior leasing experience in forecasting OCS revenues for fiscal year 1984. However, Interior officials stated that this was common pratice or procedure and was not the result of the recommendation.
|
| Office of Management and Budget | The Director of OMB should provide, concurrent with future offshore revenue estimates, a full discussion of the rationale used in developing the estimate. This discussion would keep Congress and others better informed, and should include complete descriptions of the various factors that could impact on the accuracy of the estimate, type and quality of the data used to develop the estimate, and likelihood of achieving that level of revenue. |
OMB states that information on the development of OCS revenue estimates is available upon request and does not believe that routine publication of this information would provide sufficient public benefit to justify the publication costs.
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Budget receiptsEconomic analysisLand leasesOffshore oil drillingOil leasesProjectionsStatistical methodsRoyalty paymentsRevenue estimateLitigation