Commercial Space Launch Insurance:

FAA Needs to Fully Address Mandated Requirements

GAO-18-57: Published: Jan 16, 2018. Publicly Released: Jan 16, 2018.

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Alicia Puente Cackley
(202) 512-8678
cackleya@gao.gov

 

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What GAO Found

The Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) report evaluating its maximum probable loss (MPL) methodology did not fully address the evaluation and consultation requirements specified by the U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act (CSLCA).

Balance of Risk. CSLCA required FAA to include ensuring that the federal government is not exposed to greater indemnification costs and that launch companies are not required to purchase more insurance coverage than necessary as a result of FAA's MPL methodology. FAA said that it ensured this balance by improving its methodology, but it did not reevaluate its probability thresholds after revising its methodology. These thresholds are used to divide the risk of loss between launch companies and the government.

Impact on Costs. The act required FAA to consider the costs to both the industry and the federal government of implementing an updated methodology. FAA's report discussed the impact on indirect costs, such as data collection, but did not discuss direct costs: insurance premiums for launch companies and indemnification liability for the federal government.

Consultation. The act also required FAA to consult with the commercial space sector and insurance providers in evaluating its MPL methodology in accordance with the preceding requirements. While the agency consulted with some stakeholders, these consultations were limited in scope.

FAA officials said they have not been able to take the actions needed to fully satisfy the mandated elements because of issues such as resource limitations and the lack of available data. However, by not resolving these issues, FAA lacks assurance that launch companies are not purchasing more insurance than needed or that the federal government is not being exposed to greater indemnification costs than expected.

FAA has addressed two of three previously identified weaknesses in its MPL methodology but has not yet dealt with the remaining weakness. Specifically, the agency has revised its methodology for estimating the number of potential casualties for a launch and changed the factor it uses to derive estimated property damage from estimated casualties. However, FAA has not updated the amount used for the cost of an individual casualty. GAO recommended in a March 2017 report (GAO-17-366) that FAA update this amount. Not doing so could understate the amount of insurance launch companies are required to purchase, exposing the federal government to excess risk.

GAO also determined that while FAA has two tools and methods it can use in making its MPL estimates, it does not have guidance on determining which are most appropriate for a given launch scenario. For example, one tool is more comprehensive but also labor intensive to use, while the other is inappropriate for certain launch scenarios and could result in misleading MPL amounts. Officials said they have begun to create such guidance but do not have an estimated completion date. Without such guidance, FAA cannot ensure that the most appropriate MPL methodology is used for each launch.

Why GAO Did This Study

The federal government shares liability risks with the commercial space launch industry for accidents that result in damages to third parties or federal property. This arrangement requires space launch companies to have a specific amount of insurance to cover these damages. The government is potentially liable for damages above that amount, up to a cap GAO estimated to be $3.1 billion in 2017, subject to appropriations in advance.

CSLCA, enacted in 2015, directed the Department of Transportation, of which FAA is a part, to evaluate its MPL methodology and, if necessary, develop a plan to update that methodology. The act also included a provision requiring GAO to assess FAA's evaluation and any actions needed to update the methodology.

This report discusses the extent to which (1) FAA's evaluation report addresses the requirements in CSLCA and (2) FAA has addressed previously identified weaknesses in the MPL methodology. GAO reviewed documents and interviewed FAA on its loss methodology evaluation and actions to address weaknesses.

What GAO Recommends

FAA should fully address mandated requirements in evaluating its MPL—probability thresholds, direct costs, and stakeholder consultations— and establish an estimated completion date for developing guidance on tools and methods to use for specific launch scenarios. The Department of Transportation concurred with the recommendations, and provided technical comments.

For more information, contact Alicia Puente Cackley at (202) 512-8678 or cackleya@gao.gov.

Recommendations for Executive Action

  1. Status: Open

    Comments: DOT officials said that they concur with Recommendation 1, and that FAA will reexamine the current probability thresholds to ensure a balance of risk between the federal government and launch companies. They said FAA plans to engage with industry using the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee, or some other broad-based industry forum by September 30, 2018.

    Recommendation: The FAA Administrator should fulfill the CSLCA mandate to include ensuring a balance of risk between the federal government and launch companies as part of FAA's MPL methodology evaluation by reexamining the current probability thresholds. (Recommendation 1)

    Agency Affected: Department of Transportation: Federal Aviation Administration

  2. Status: Open

    Comments: DOT officials told us that they concur with Recommendation 2. They said that as part of the industry engagement discussed under the response for Recommendation 1, FAA will engage and seek industry input on the direct cost impact on launch companies of implementing the FAA's revised MPL methodology, and plan to complete an internal evaluation of the direct costs on the federal government by December 31, 2018.

    Recommendation: The FAA Administrator should fulfill the CSLCA mandate to analyze the cost impact of implementing its revised MPL methodology by evaluating the impact on the direct costs of launch companies and the federal government. (Recommendation 2)

    Agency Affected: Department of Transportation: Federal Aviation Administration

  3. Status: Open

    Comments: DOT officials said they concur with Recommendation 3, and will use the industry engagement discussed under the response for Recommendation 1 to accomplish this recommendation. They said FAA plans to complete the evaluation by December 31, 2018.

    Recommendation: The FAA Administrator should fulfill the CSLCA mandate to evaluate its MPL methodology in consultation with the commercial space sector and insurance providers by consulting with those entities on the cost impact of its revised MPL methodology, including an updated cost-of-casualty amount, on the launch industry and the federal government. (Recommendation 3)

    Agency Affected: Department of Transportation: Federal Aviation Administration

  4. Status: Open

    Comments: DOT officials told us that they concur with Recommendation 4, and estimated they will develop the recommended plan by July 31, 2018. They said FAA will establish implementation dates for the methodologies and tools once the plan is complete and after consulting with industry.

    Recommendation: The FAA Administrator should establish an estimated completion date for developing and implementing a plan to establish guidance on the most appropriate MPL methodologies and tools to use for each launch. (Recommendation 4)

    Agency Affected: Department of Transportation: Federal Aviation Administration

 

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