America's Energy Futures

The basic energy choices available to the United States depend on energy conservation. Total U.S. energy consumption more than doubled between 1950 and 1973. The Energy Policy Project (EPP) has concluded that the central energy problem in the next 25 years will not be the lack of energy resources per se, but the large potential for rapid growth in energy consumption. People want a reliable supply of energy at the lowest total cost to society that is standardized regionally and economically and as safe and as free as possible from international problems. These desires can be achieved by the market or by government intervention. In several years there will be no new major source of energy, no major rebuilding, and no major new transportation systems. Three energy scenarios can be considered: the Historical Growth scenario by which total energy consumption is assumed to grow at 3.4 percent per year and requiring technological and expenditure increases that may be impossible to achieve; the Technical Fix scenario by which U.S. energy consumption would increase 1.8 percent yearly; and Zero Growth by which consumption would stabilize at about 1.3 times present rates. Technical Fix provides both more time and more flexibility than Historical Growth and requires less capital. The United States should move toward Zero Growth, paralleling Technical Fix until the mid-1980's to allow for lead time problems.