Food Stamp Program:
Statistical Validity of Agriculture's Payment Error-Rate Estimates
RCED-87-4: Published: Oct 30, 1986. Publicly Released: Oct 30, 1986.
Additional Materials:
- Full Report:
Contact:
(202) 512-5138
contact@gao.gov
Office of Public Affairs
(202) 512-4800
youngc1@gao.gov
In response to a congressional request, GAO reviewed the quality control (QC) system that the Food and Nutrition Service (FNS) used to set fiscal year (FY) 1984 error rates in Food Stamp Program benefit payments and to assess sanctions against states for their errors.
GAO noted that FNS annually estimates each state's food stamp payment error rate in a two-step process, using statistically selected FNS and state case samples. FNS: (1) computes a regressed error rate based on a review of its subsample of the state's sample; (2) adjusts the regressed error rate upward if the state did not complete the number of sample case reviews prescribed in its approved QC review plan; and (3) determines the state's sanction from the resulting number, which is the official error rate. A sanction involves reducing the federally funded share of a state's administrative costs by a predetermined percentage tied to a target error rate. GAO found that, overall, FNS statistical policies for estimating the regressed and official error rates generally conformed with accepted statistical theory. GAO believes that, because small changes in the official error rates could affect sanction amounts, FNS should use the soundest practical statistical methods in developing the payment error-rate estimates.
Recommendations for Executive Action
Status: Closed - Not Implemented
Comments: With the passage of the Hunger Prevention Act, FNS will be pursuing the requirements of the law and is not considering the recommendation.
Recommendation: The Administrator, FNS, should amend FNS policy and guidance to require that an acceptable expected minimum-stratum sample size be established when approving a state's sampling plan.
Agency Affected: Department of Agriculture: Office of the Secretary: Food, Nutrition and Consumer Services: Food and Nutrition Service
Status: Closed - Implemented
Comments: FNS included this calculation capability in its programming at the Washington Computer Center. FNS will use this capability to generate the sampling error of each state's payment error rate annually.
Recommendation: The Administrator, FNS, should amend FNS policy and guidance to require the routine calculation of the sampling error of payment error-rate estimates.
Agency Affected: Department of Agriculture: Office of the Secretary: Food, Nutrition and Consumer Services: Food and Nutrition Service
Status: Closed - Not Implemented
Comments: With passage of the Hunger Prevention Act, FNS no longer believes this recommendation to be valid, and intends to implement the requirements of the law.
Recommendation: In conjunction with actions taken in response to studies that the Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) are conducting on food stamp error rates and sanctions, the Administrator, FNS, should amend FNS policy and guidance to eliminate the assumption that cases for which reviews have not been completed have the same error rate as completed cases.
Agency Affected: Department of Agriculture: Office of the Secretary: Food, Nutrition and Consumer Services: Food and Nutrition Service
Status: Closed - Not Implemented
Comments: FNS believes that the standard deviation of the state-reported error rate is a more accurate basis for the calculation. Although FNS agreed that either method may be used, it believes that there is no basis for FNS to change its method, and therefore, do not intend to implement this recommendation.
Recommendation: In conjunction with actions taken in response to studies that USDA and NAS are conducting on food stamp error rates and sanctions, the Administrator, FNS, should amend FNS policy and guidance to require that the standard deviation of the regressed payment error rate, instead of the standard deviation from the state samples, be used in calculating the adjusted, or official, error rate.
Agency Affected: Department of Agriculture: Office of the Secretary: Food, Nutrition and Consumer Services: Food and Nutrition Service
Explore the full database of GAO's Open Recommendations
»
Jan 15, 2021
-
Farmworkers:
Additional Information Needed to Better Protect Workers from Pesticide ExposureGAO-21-63: Published: Jan 15, 2021. Publicly Released: Jan 15, 2021.
Nov 20, 2020
-
Food Safety:
CDC Could Further Strengthen Its Efforts to Identify and Respond to Foodborne IllnessesGAO-21-23: Published: Oct 21, 2020. Publicly Released: Nov 20, 2020.
Nov 16, 2020
-
Farm Programs:
USDA Has Improved Its Completion of Eligibility Compliance Reviews, but Additional Oversight Is NeededGAO-21-95: Published: Oct 30, 2020. Publicly Released: Nov 16, 2020.
Sep 16, 2020
-
Agriculture Spending:
Opportunities Exist for USDA to Identify Successes and Challenges of the Farmers to Families Food Box Program to Inform Future EffortsGAO-20-711R: Published: Sep 16, 2020. Publicly Released: Sep 16, 2020.
Sep 14, 2020
-
USDA Market Facilitation Program:
Information on Payments for 2019GAO-20-700R: Published: Aug 21, 2020. Publicly Released: Sep 14, 2020.
Aug 10, 2020
-
National Bio and Agro-defense Facility:
DHS and USDA Are Working to Transfer Ownership and Prepare for Operations, but Critical Steps RemainGAO-20-331: Published: Jul 10, 2020. Publicly Released: Aug 10, 2020.
May 7, 2020
-
Food Safety:
FDA and USDA Could Strengthen Existing Efforts to Prepare for Oversight of Cell-Cultured MeatGAO-20-325: Published: Apr 7, 2020. Publicly Released: May 7, 2020.
Apr 13, 2020
-
Priority Open Recommendations:
U.S. Department of AgricultureGAO-20-288PR: Published: Apr 6, 2020. Publicly Released: Apr 13, 2020.
Dec 23, 2019
-
Nutrition Assistance Programs:
Agencies Could Do More to Help Address the Nutritional Needs of Older AdultsGAO-20-18: Published: Nov 21, 2019. Publicly Released: Dec 23, 2019.
Dec 6, 2019
-
Imported Seafood Safety:
Actions Needed to Improve FDA Oversight of Import Alert Removal DecisionsGAO-20-62: Published: Nov 6, 2019. Publicly Released: Dec 6, 2019.
Looking for more? Browse all our products here