Retirement Forecasting:

Technical Descriptions of Cost, Decision, and Income Models

PEMD-87-6B: Published: Dec 31, 1986. Publicly Released: Dec 31, 1986.

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GAO provided individual descriptions and reviews of 71 federal retirement models that forecast: (1) the costs of federal retirement programs; (2) the retirement behavior of civilian workers; and (3) the levels and distribution of retirement income.

GAO noted that the model descriptions included: (1) model name, sponsor's name, and sponsor's address; (2) the primary objective of the model; (3) prior, current, or planned use of the model; (4) outcomes predicted by the model; (5) methods of calculation or simulation; (6) data sources; (7) predictors of outcomes or specific predictor values; (8) availability of documentation; (9) frequency of updating or model maintenance; and (10) available information on model validity.

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