Navy Supply: Procurement Leadtime Forecasting Needs Improvement
NSIAD-90-78
Published: May 18, 1990. Publicly Released: May 18, 1990.
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Highlights
Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO reviewed the Navy's process for determining procurement lead-time requirements.
Recommendations
Recommendations for Executive Action
| Agency Affected | Recommendation | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Department of the Navy | The Secretary of the Navy should direct the Commander, Naval Supply Systems Command (NAVSUP), to implement procedures that more accurately determine administrative lead-time (ALT) requirements. Specifically, the Commander should base ALT requirements on representative actual experience for individual items, rather than on standard lead times for groups of items. |
Closed – Implemented
ASO has implemented procedures to more accurately determine ALT requirements. ASO has established standard ceilings that are the maximum permitted ALT. When actual observed ALT is less than the standard, the actual ALT is used. When the actual ALT is greater than the standard, it is not used to update the file forecast.
|
| Department of the Navy | The Secretary of the Navy should direct the Commander, NAVSUP, to implement procedures that more accurately determine ALT requirements. Specifically, the Commander should ensure that additives to ALT requirements are reasonable and fully justified. |
Closed – Not Implemented
The Department of Defense (DOD) agreed that additives to requirements should be reasonable and fully justified, but contends that appropriate safeguards are already in place.
|
| Department of the Navy | The Secretary of the Navy should direct the Commander, NAVSUP, to implement procedures that more accurately determine ALT requirements. Specifically, the Commander should review historical data on administrative requirements for completeness and accuracy. |
Closed – Implemented
ASO is implementing procedures to more accurately determine ALT requirements. Historical data is included in the maintenance of ALT files.
|
| Department of the Navy | The Secretary of the Navy should direct the Commander, NAVSUP, to implement procedures to ensure that more accurate production lead-time forecasting data are available and used in making requirement determinations. Specifically, the Commander should routinely obtain contractor estimates of production lead time and compare the estimates with actual contractor performance. |
Closed – Not Implemented
DOD did not agree that contractor estimates should be routinely obtained. DOD stated that, although contractor estimates were valuable, they were just one of several sources of data used in validating production leadtime forecasts.
|
| Department of the Navy | The Secretary of the Navy should direct the Commander, NAVSUP, to implement procedures to ensure that more accurate production lead-time forecasting data are available and used in making requirements determinations. Specifically, the Commander should improve the completeness and accuracy of production lead-time data in the historical files and establish the internal controls needed to ensure the accuracy of those files, including the reconciliation of shipment and receipt data in the contract status file. |
Closed – Implemented
ASO has reviewed 6 months leadtime data and decided to keep the established parameters on an interim basis. DOD wants, over the long term, to standardize automatic data processing systems throughout the military services. The Navy's requirements determination system will be incorporated in the Air Force's Logistics Standard Information System.
|
| Department of the Navy | The Secretary of the Navy should direct the Commander, NAVSUP, to implement procedures to ensure that more accurate production lead-time forecasting data are available and used in making requirements determinations. Specifically, the Commander should target data accuracy problems as an issue for review in Federal Managers' Financial Integrity Act (FMFIA) assessments. |
Closed – Implemented
Data accuracy problems were targeted as an issue for review in fiscal year 1991 under FMFIA assessments. NAVSUP placed primary emphasis on the requirement to conduct a management control review for the functional area of data accuracy at both inventory control points. Results of this review were reported in the annual management control certification statement.
|
| Department of the Navy | The Secretary of the Navy should direct the Commander, NAVSUP, to implement procedures to ensure that more accurate production lead-time forecasting data are available and used in making requirements determinations. Specifically, the Commander should review experienced lead times and contractor estimates that are outside of established parameters to determine if they are representative of current conditions. |
Closed – Not Implemented
DOD believes that accurate lead-time forecasts are more economically obtained from the careful selection and periodic analytical review of lead-time filter parameter values rather than through the manual reviews and processing of individual update transactions.
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Aircraft componentsData collectionInventory control systemsMilitary inventoriesNaval procurementNaval suppliesProcurement evaluationProcurement recordsProjectionsReporting requirements