This is the accessible text file for CG Presentation number GAO-11- 900CG entitled 'Anticipating and Meeting Accountability Challenges in a Dynamic Environment' which was released on August 11, 2011. This text file was formatted by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) to be accessible to users with visual impairments, as part of a longer term project to improve GAO products' accessibility. Every attempt has been made to maintain the structural and data integrity of the original printed product. Accessibility features, such as text descriptions of tables, consecutively numbered footnotes placed at the end of the file, and the text of agency comment letters, are provided but may not exactly duplicate the presentation or format of the printed version. The portable document format (PDF) file is an exact electronic replica of the printed version. We welcome your feedback. Please E-mail your comments regarding the contents or accessibility features of this document to Webmaster@gao.gov. This is a work of the U.S. government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. It may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without further permission from GAO. Because this work may contain copyrighted images or other material, permission from the copyright holder may be necessary if you wish to reproduce this material separately. Anticipating and Meeting Accountability Challenges in a Dynamic Environment: American Accounting Association Annual Meeting: Denver, Colorado: August 8, 2011: Gene L. Dodaro: Comptroller General: U.S. Government Accountability Office: GA0-11-900CG: Overview: * GAO's Mission and Strategic Plan: * Trends Affecting Government and the U.S. * GAO's Related Work: GAO's Mission: GAO's role is to support the Congress in carrying out its constitutional responsibilities and to help improve the performance and ensure the accountability of government for the benefit of the American people. Key Approaches: GAO carries out its mission in four fundamental ways: Oversight: preventing and detecting fraud, waste, abuse, and mismanagement. Insight: making government more efficient and effective. Foresight: identifying emerging issues. Adjudication: resolving bid protests and providing legal opinions GAO's Planning & Performance Documents: [hyperlink, http://www.gao.govisp.html] * Strategic Plan. * Performance Plan. * Performance & Accountability Report. Strategic Planning Framework: Goal: Provide Timely, Quality Service to the Congress and the Federal Government to Address Current and Emerging Challenges to the Well- being and Financial Security of the American People related to: Objectives: * Health care needs; * Lifelong learning; * Benefits and protections for workers, families, and children; * Financial security; * Effective system of justice; * Viable communities; * Stable financial system and consumer protection; * Stewardship of natural resources and the environment; * Infrastructure. Goal: Provide Timely, Quality Service to the Congress and the Federal Government to Respond to Changing Security Threats and the Challenges of Global Interdependence involving: Objectives: * Homeland security; * Military capabilities and readiness; * Advancement of U.S. Interests; * Global market forces. Goal: Help Transform the Federal Government to Address National Challenges by assessing: Objectives: * Government's fiscal position and options for closing gap; * Fraud, waste, and abuse; * Major management challenges and program risks. Goal: Maximize the Value of GAO by Enabling Quality, Timely Service to the Congress and Being a Leading Practices Federal Agency in the areas of: Objectives: * Efficiency, effectiveness, and quality; * Diverse and inclusive work environment; * Professional networks and collaboration; * Institutional stewardship and resource management. Trend 1: Threats Confronting U.S. National Security Interests: * Regional instability (Middle East, Central Asia, Africa). * Longstanding threats (extremism, terrorism, proliferation of weapons, cybersecurity). * Emerging threats (energy security, climate change, global recession). * Need for new capabilities alongside increasingly constrained resources. Related GAO work: * Reviewing U.S. security and reconstruction efforts related to Afghanistan, Iraq and other regions in conflict, including reviewing the effect of drawing down military resources in Iraq, and countering terrorism and nuclear supplier networks in Pakistan. * Assessing U.S. efforts to combat terrorism abroad. * Reviewing the government's efforts to identify and act on credible threats to homeland and border security, as well as those involving biological, chemical, and nuclear dimensions. * Analyzing the funding and costs of military operations and programs given the fiscal pressures facing the nation. * Evaluate efforts to ensure the reliability, security, and affordability of energy supply infrastructure and assess the implications of climate change for the federal government. Trend 2: Fiscal Sustainability and Debt Challenges: Figure: Federal Budget Surpluses and Deficits under Different Fiscal Policy Simulations: [Refer to PDF for image: line graph] Percentage of GDP: Year: 2000; Baseline extended: 2.405%; Alternative: 2.405%. Year: 2001; Baseline extended: 1.254%; Alternative: 1.254%. Year: 2002; Baseline extended: -1.497%; Alternative: -1.497%. Year: 2003; Baseline extended: -3.439%; Alternative: -3.439%. Year: 2004; Baseline extended: -3.532%; Alternative: -3.532%. Year: 2005; Baseline extended: -2.558%; Alternative: -2.558%. Year: 2006; Baseline extended: -1.877%; Alternative: -1.877%. Year: 2007; Baseline extended: -1.157%; Alternative: -1.157%. Year: 2008; Baseline extended: -3.186%; Alternative: -3.186%. Year: 2009; Baseline extended: -10.021%; Alternative: -10.021%. Year: 2010; Baseline extended: -8.917%; Alternative: -8.917%. Year: 2011; Baseline extended: -9.843%; Alternative: -9.843%. Year: 2012; Baseline extended: -7.008%; Alternative: -7.14%. Year: 2013; Baseline extended: -4.294%; Alternative: -6.41%. Year: 2014; Baseline extended: -3.091%; Alternative: -6.421%. Year: 2015; Baseline extended: -3.027%; Alternative: -6.806%. Year: 2016; Baseline extended: -3.441%; Alternative: -7.523%. Year: 2017; Baseline extended: -3.078%; Alternative: -7.492%. Year: 2018; Baseline extended: -2.915%; Alternative: -7.666%. Year: 2019; Baseline extended: -3.182%; Alternative: -8.232%. Year: 2020; Baseline extended: -3.237%; Alternative: -8.635%. Year: 2021; Baseline extended: -3.206%; Alternative: -8.954%. Year: 2022; Baseline extended: -3.537%; Alternative: -9.63%. Year: 2023; Baseline extended: -3.702%; Alternative: -10.357%. Year: 2024; Baseline extended: -3.977%; Alternative: -11.115%. Year: 2025; Baseline extended: -4.375%; Alternative: -11.911%. Year: 2026; Baseline extended: -4.553%; Alternative: -12.513%. Year: 2027; Baseline extended: -4.837%; Alternative: -13.125%. Year: 2028; Baseline extended: -5.231%; Alternative: -13.851%. Year: 2029; Baseline extended: -5.527%; Alternative: -14.491%. Year: 2030; Baseline extended: -5.816%; Alternative: -15.131%. Year: 2031; Baseline extended: -6.103%; Alternative: -15.775%. Year: 2032; Baseline extended: -6.504%; Alternative: -16.422%. Year: 2033; Baseline extended: -6.677%; Alternative: -17.075%. Year: 2034; Baseline extended: -6.958%; Alternative: -17.735%. Year: 2035; Baseline extended: -7.234%; Alternative: -18.396%. Year: 2036; Baseline extended: -7.509%; Alternative: -19.063 Year: 2037; Baseline extended: -7.9%; Alternative: -19.849%. Year: 2038; Baseline extended: -8.159%. Year: 2039; Baseline extended: -8.413%. Year: 2040; Baseline extended: -8.661%. Year: 2041; Baseline extended: -8.908%. Year: 2042; Baseline extended: -9.153%. Year: 2043; Baseline extended: -9.398%. Year: 2044; Baseline extended: -9.645%. Year: 2045; Baseline extended: -9.897%. Year: 2046; Baseline extended: -10.286%. Year: 2047; Baseline extended: -10.547%. Year: 2048; Baseline extended: -10.806%. Year: 2049; Baseline extended: -11.064%. Year: 2050; Baseline extended: -11.192%. Year: 2051; Baseline extended: -11.597%. Year: 2052; Baseline extended: -11.876%. Year: 2053; Baseline extended: -12.159%. Year: 2054; Baseline extended: -12.45%. Year: 2055; Baseline extended: -12.752%. Year: 2056; Baseline extended: -13.061%. Year: 2057; Baseline extended: -13.229%. Year: 2058; Baseline extended: -13.679%. Year: 2059; Baseline extended: -13.993%. Year: 2060; Baseline extended: -14.166%. Source: GAO. Note: Data are from GAO's January 2011 simulations based on the Trustees' assumptions for Social Security and the Trustees' and the CMS Actuary's assumptions for Medicare. [End of figure] Figure: Debt Held by the Public Under Two Fiscal Policy Simulations: [Refer to PDF for image: multiple line graph] Percent of GDP: Historical high: 109 percent in 1946. Fiscal year: 2000; Baseline extended: 34.7%; Alternative: 34.7%. Fiscal year: 2001; Baseline extended: 32.5%; Alternative: 32.5%. Fiscal year: 2002; Baseline extended: 33.6%; Alternative: 33.6%. Fiscal year: 2003; Baseline extended: 35.6%; Alternative: 35.6%. Fiscal year: 2004; Baseline extended: 36.8%; Alternative: 36.8%. Fiscal year: 2005; Baseline extended: 36.9%; Alternative: 36.9%. Fiscal year: 2006; Baseline extended: 36.5%; Alternative: 36.5%. Fiscal year: 2007; Baseline extended: 36.2%; Alternative: 36.2%. Fiscal year: 2008; Baseline extended: 40.2%; Alternative: 40.2%. Fiscal year: 2009; Baseline extended: 53.52%; Alternative: 53.52%. Fiscal year: 2010; Baseline extended: 62.14%; Alternative: 62.14%. Fiscal year: 2011; Baseline extended: 69.38%; Alternative: 69.38%. Fiscal year: 2012; Baseline extended: 73.90%; Alternative: 74.04%. Fiscal year: 2013; Baseline extended: 75.52%; Alternative: 77.77%. Fiscal year: 2014; Baseline extended: 75.30%; Alternative: 80.77%. Fiscal year: 2015; Baseline extended: 74.88%; Alternative: 83.84%. Fiscal year: 2016; Baseline extended: 75.01%; Alternative: 87.61%. Fiscal year: 2017; Baseline extended: 75.20%; Alternative: 91.65%. Fiscal year: 2018; Baseline extended: 75.31%; Alternative: 95.81%. Fiscal year: 2019; Baseline extended: 75.75%; Alternative: 100.43%. Fiscal year: 2020; Baseline extended: 76.22%; Alternative: 105.26%. Fiscal year: 2021; Baseline extended: 76.66%; Alternative: 110.24%. Fiscal year: 2022; Baseline extended: 77.45%; Alternative: 115.73%. Fiscal year: 2023; Baseline extended: 78.1%; Alternative: 121.48%. Fiscal year: 2024; Baseline extended: 79.19%; Alternative: 127.72%. Fiscal year: 2025; Baseline extended: 80.59%; Alternative: 134.58%. Fiscal year: 2026; Baseline extended: 82.15%; Alternative: 141.82%. Fiscal year: 2027; Baseline extended: 83.91%; Alternative: 149.33%. Fiscal year: 2028; Baseline extended: 86.00%; Alternative: 157.28%. Fiscal year: 2029; Baseline extended: 88.39%; Alternative: 165.64%. Fiscal year: 2030; Baseline extended: 90.96%; Alternative: 174.36%. Fiscal year: 2031; Baseline extended: 93.70%; Alternative: 183.32%. Fiscal year: 2032; Baseline extended: 96.74%; Alternative: 192.57%. Fiscal year: 2033; Baseline extended: 99.84%. Fiscal year: 2034; Baseline extended: 103.11%. Fiscal year: 2035; Baseline extended: 106.5%. Fiscal year: 2036; Baseline extended: 110.12%. Fiscal year: 2037; Baseline extended: 113.95%. Fiscal year: 2038; Baseline extended: 117.85%. Fiscal year: 2039; Baseline extended: 121.90%. Fiscal year: 2040; Baseline extended: 126.05%. Fiscal year: 2041; Baseline extended: 130.30%. Fiscal year: 2042; Baseline extended: 134.63%. Fiscal year: 2043; Baseline extended: 139.05%. Fiscal year: 2044; Baseline extended: 143.54%. Fiscal year: 2045; Baseline extended: 148.12%. Fiscal year: 2046; Baseline extended: 152.91%. Fiscal year: 2047; Baseline extended: 157.78%. Fiscal year: 2048; Baseline extended: 162.72%. Fiscal year: 2049; Baseline extended: 167.73%. Fiscal year: 2050; Baseline extended: 172.76%. Fiscal year: 2051; Baseline extended: 178.04%. Fiscal year: 2052; Baseline extended: 183.39%. Fiscal year: 2053; Baseline extended: 188.83%. Fiscal year: 2054; Baseline extended: 194.36%. Fiscal year: 2055; Baseline extended: 199.97%. Source: GAO. Note: Data are from GAO's January 2011 simulations based on the Social Security Trustees' assumptions for Social Security and the Medicare Trustees' and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Office of the Actuary's assumptions for Medicare. [End of figure] Table: Challenges Affecting the Federal Budget in the Near Term: 2008: Oldest members of the baby-boom generation became eligible for early Social Security retirement benefits. 2008: Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) outlays exceeded cash income. 2010: Social Security runs first cash deficit in more than 25 years. 2011: Oldest members of the baby-boom generation become eligible for Medicare. 2021: Debt held by the public under GAO's Alternative simulation exceeds the historical high reached in the aftermath of World War II. Source: GAO. See The Federal Government's Long-Term Fiscal Outlook: January 2011 Update, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-11-451SP] (Mar. 17, 2011). [End of table] Figure: Potential Fiscal Outcomes: Revenues and Composition of Spending under Baseline Extended Simulation: [Refer to PDF for image: combined stacked vertical bar and line graph] Percentage of GDP: Fiscal year: 2010; Net interest: 1.4%; Social Security: 4.8%; Medicare & Medicaid[A]: 5%; All other spending: 12.6%; Revenue: 14.9%. Fiscal year: 2020; Net interest: 3.3%; Social Security: 5.2%; Medicare & Medicaid[A]: 6.3%; All other spending: 9.1%; Revenue: 20.7%. Fiscal year: 2030; Net interest: 4.2%; Social Security: 6%; Medicare & Medicaid[A]: 7.6%; All other spending: 8.9%; Revenue: 20.8%. Fiscal year: 2040; Net interest: 5.7%; Social Security: 6.2%; Medicare & Medicaid[A]: 8.7%; All other spending: 8.9%; Revenue: 20.8%. Note: Data are from GAO's January 2011 simulations based on the Trustees' assumptions for Social Security and Medicare. [A] This also includes spending for insurance exchange subsidies and CHIP. Source: GAO. [End of figure] Figure: Potential Fiscal Outcomes: Revenues and Composition of Spending under Alternative Simulation: [Refer to PDF for image: combined stacked vertical bar and line graph] Percentage of GDP: Fiscal year: 2010; Net interest: 1.4%; Social Security: 4.8%; Medicare & Medicaid[A]: 5%; All other spending: 12.6%; Revenue: 14.9%. Fiscal year: 2020; Net interest: 4.4%; Social Security: 5.2%; Medicare & Medicaid[A]: 6.7%; All other spending: 10.7%; Revenue: 18.3%. Fiscal year: 2030; Net interest: 7.8%; Social Security: 6%; Medicare & Medicaid[A]: 8.6%; All other spending: 10.8%; Revenue: 18%. Fiscal year: 2040; Net interest: 12.5%; Social Security: 6.2%; Medicare & Medicaid[A]: 10.4%; All other spending: 10.8%; Revenue: 18%. Source: GAO. Note: Data are from GAO's January 2011 simulations based on the Trustees' assumptions for Social Security and the CMS Actuary's assumptions for Medicare. [A] This also includes spending for insurance exchange subsidies and CHIP. [End of figure] Figure: State and Local Operating Balance Measure, as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product: [Refer to PDF for image: multiple line graph] Positive Balance: Surplus. Negative Balance: Deficit. Year: 2005; Balance: 0.1%. Year: 2006; Balance: 0.3%. Year: 2007; Balance: 0.1%. Year: 2008; Balance: -0.4%. Year: 2009; Balance: 0%. Year: 2010; Balance: 0%. Year: 2011; Balance: -0.4%. Year: 2012; Balance: -0.7%. Year: 2013; Balance: -0.9%. Year: 2014; Balance: -1%. Year: 2015; Balance: -1.1%. Year: 2016; Balance: -1.2%. Year: 2017; Balance: -1.3%. Year: 2018; Balance: -1.4%. Year: 2019; Balance: -1.5%. Year: 2020; Balance: -1.6%. Year: 2021; Balance: -1.7%. Year: 2022; Balance: -1.8%. Year: 2023; Balance: -1.7%. Year: 2024; Balance: -1.8%. Year: 2025; Balance: -1.9%. Year: 2026; Balance: -1.9%. Year: 2027; Balance: -1.9%. Year: 2028; Balance: -2%. Year: 2029; Balance: -2.1%. Year: 2030; Balance: -2.1%. Year: 2031; Balance: -2.2%. Year: 2032; Balance: -2.2%. Year: 2033; Balance: -2.2%. Year: 2034; Balance: -2.3%. Year: 2035; Balance: -2.3%. Year: 2036; Balance: -2.4%. Year: 2037; Balance: -2.5%. Year: 2038; Balance: -2.5%. Year: 2039; Balance: -2.6%. Year: 2040; Balance: -2.6%. Year: 2041; Balance: -2.7%. Year: 2042; Balance: -2.7%. Year: 2043; Balance: -2.7%. Year: 2044; Balance: -2.8%. Year: 2045; Balance: -2.8%. Year: 2046; Balance: -2.9%. Year: 2047; Balance: -3%. Year: 2048; Balance: -3%. Year: 2049; Balance: -3%. Year: 2050; Balance: -3%. Year: 2051; Balance: -3.1%. Year: 2052; Balance: -3.2%. Year: 2053; Balance: -3.2%. Year: 2054; Balance: -3.2%. Year: 2055; Balance: -3.3%. Year: 2056; Balance: -3.3%. Year: 2057; Balance: -3.3%. Year: 2058; Balance: -3.4%. Year: 2059; Balance: -3.4%. Year: 2060; Balance: -3.4%. Source: GAO simulations, updated April 2011. Note: Historical data are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis's National Income and Product Accounts from 1980 to 2009. Data in 2010 are GAO estimates aligned with published data where available. GAO simulations are from 2011 to 2060, using many Congressional Budget Office projections and assumptions, particularly for the next 10 years. Simulations are based on current policy. [End of figure] Related GAO work: * Conducting work to assess duplication and overlap among federal programs and agencies. * Identifying elements to help address the nation's financial challenges including Social Security, tax reform, retirement, and disability programs; opportunities to reduce spending; and reducing the gap between taxes owed and taxes collected. * Performing financial statement audits (IRS, Schedule of Federal Debt, FDIC, FHA, Consolidated Financial Statements, SEC). * Performing long-term fiscal simulations and analyses of federal deficits, federal debt levels, and the state and local sector. * Identifying and recommending solutions to reduce the risk of waste, fraud, and abuse and improper payments. Results of the FY 2010 Financial Audits: * 20 of 24 CFO Act Agencies received unqualified audit opinions on their accrual-based financial statements. (Only 6 did in 1996.) * Three major impediments continue to prevent GAO from rendering an opinion on the U.S. government's accrual-based consolidated financial statements: - Financial management problems at the Department of Defense (DOD). - Inability to adequately account for and reconcile intragovernmental activity and balances between federal entities. - Ineffective process for preparing the consolidated financial statements. U.S. Government's Consolidated Financial Statements - Getting to a Clean Opinion: Department of Defense (DOD): * Several entities have received a clean opinion: - U.S. Army Corp of Engineers, Defense Finance and Accounting Service, Defense Commissary Agency, Defense Contract Audit Agency, Military Retirement Fund. * U.S. Marine Corps working toward an auditable Statement of Budgetary Resources as a first step. Lessons learned may pave the way for other military services. * DOD focus on improving business systems, ensuring reliability of budget information, and existence and completeness of all mission- critical assets. * Financial Improvement and Audit Readiness plan defines path for DOD's plans to achieve auditability by 2017. Intragovernmental activity & balances between federal entities: Key actions taken/planned by Treasury: * Developed and issued Intragovernmental Business Rules. * Established various focus groups, consisting of Treasury and federal entity personnel. * Developed and implemented intragovernmental confirmation and reporting and analysis systems. * Developing financial statements for the General Fund of the U.S. Government to help address unreconciled differences existing between the General Fund and federal entity trading partners related to appropriation and other intragovernmental transactions. Consolidated financial statements (CFS) preparation process: Key actions taken/planned by Treasury: * Developed, documented, and implemented numerous standard operating procedures. * Hired contractors to assist in addressing certain control deficiencies. * Continuing to execute and implement corrective action plans to address previously identified control deficiencies. * Considering obtaining personnel from certain other entities, with additional financial reporting expertise, to assist Treasury during the year-end CFS preparation process. Trend 3: Economic Recovery and Restored Growth * Different scenarios for economic recovery. * Replacement of lost jobs. * Role of consumers * Housing and commercial real estate. * The timing of fiscal & monetary support. * Managing concerns about inflation. Figure: Private Investment Has Fallen Sharply, but is Starting to Recover: [Refer to PDF for image: line graph] Billions of constant 2005 dollars: Periods of recession indicated on the graph: 1953; 1957; 1960; 1973-74; 1980; 1982; 1990; 2001; 2008-2010. Year: 1950; Private investment: $215.6. Year: 1951; Private investment: $264.8. Year: 1952; Private investment: $234.5. Year: 1953; Private investment: $247.5. Year: 1954; Private investment: $221.6. Year: 1955; Private investment: $268.7. Year: 1956; Private investment: $286.0. Year: 1957; Private investment: $271.7. Year: 1958; Private investment: $235.7. Year: 1959; Private investment: $271.6. Year: 1960; Private investment: $331.7. Year: 1961; Private investment: $266.4. Year: 1962; Private investment: $334.3. Year: 1963; Private investment: $343.7. Year: 1964; Private investment: $379.5. Year: 1965; Private investment: $429.1. Year: 1966; Private investment: $484.2. Year: 1967; Private investment: $460.0. Year: 1968; Private investment: $472.9. Year: 1969; Private investment: $512.7. Year: 1970; Private investment: $476.9. Year: 1971; Private investment: $478.4. Year: 1972; Private investment: $534.0. Year: 1973; Private investment: $595.5. Year: 1974; Private investment: $675.8. Year: 1975; Private investment: $628.1. Year: 1976; Private investment: $476.1. Year: 1977; Private investment: $610.5. Year: 1978; Private investment: $696.1. Year: 1979; Private investment: $777.5. Year: 1980; Private investment: $781.1. Year: 1981; Private investment: $795.1. Year: 1982; Private investment: $692.5. Year: 1983; Private investment: $645.1. Year: 1984; Private investment: $921.8. Year: 1985; Private investment: $927.4. Year: 1986; Private investment: $967.4. Year: 1987; Private investment: $945.8. Year: 1988; Private investment: $964.4. Year: 1989; Private investment: $1046.0. Year: 1990; Private investment: $1021.1. Year: 1991; Private investment: $896.2 Year: 1992; Private investment: $927.8. Year: 1993; Private investment: $1055.0. Year: 1994; Private investment: $1166.9. Year: 1995; Private investment: $1282.1. Year: 1996; Private investment: $1287.1. Year: 1997; Private investment: $1451.3. Year: 1998; Private investment: $1672.7. Year: 1999; Private investment: $1810.0 Year: 2000; Private investment: $1887.8. Year: 2001; Private investment: $1882.7. Year: 2002; Private investment: $1789.3. Year: 2003; Private investment: $1813.1. Year: 2004; Private investment: $1970.0. Year: 2005; Private investment: $2170.3. Year: 2006; Private investment: $2131.5. Year: 2007; Private investment: $2264.7. Year: 2008; Private investment: $2132.6. Year: 2009; Private investment: $2026.5. Year: 2010; Private investment: $1601.7. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. [End of figure] Related GAO work: * Assessing the effectiveness of financial and regulatory reform efforts and plans to ensure the stability of the overall banking, housing, and financial markets. * Monitoring and evaluating various federal assistance programs designed stabilize U.S. financial markets and boost the economy, including investments in infrastructure and job expansion. * Continuing to perform our responsibilities under the Recovery Act. * Providing analysis on the functioning of the mortgage market and the ultimate disposition of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. * Monitoring services to assist job seekers and supports for low- income families. Trend 4: The Changing Dynamics of Global Interdependence International Reserves in Developing & Emerging Economies Have Increased More Than Twelvefold: [Refer to PDF for image: multiple line graph] Dollars in trillions: Year: 1990; Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.36; Advanced Economies: $0.63; World: $0.99. Year: 1991; Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.27; Advanced Economies: $0.78; World: $1.05. Year: 1992; Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.28; Advanced Economies: $0.77; World: $1.05. Year: 1993; Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.34; Advanced Economies: $0.81; World: $1.15. Year: 1994; Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.40; Advanced Economies: $0.91; World: $1.31. Year: 1995; Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.50; Advanced Economies: $1.03; World: $1.53. Year: 1996; Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.59; Advanced Economies: $1.11; World: $1.70. Year: 1997; Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.65; Advanced Economies: $1.11; World: $1.76. Year: 1998; Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.66; Advanced Economies: $1.15; World: $1.81. Year: 1999; Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.70; Advanced Economies: $1.23; World: $1.93. Year: 2000; Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.76; Advanced Economies: $1.31; World: $2.07. Year: 2001; Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.85; Advanced Economies: $1.35; World: $2.19. Year: 2002; Emerging and Developing Economies: $1.02; Advanced Economies: $1.55; World: $2.57. Year: 2003; Emerging and Developing Economies: $1.32; Advanced Economies: $1.88; World: $3.21. Year: 2004; Emerging and Developing Economies: $1.75; Advanced Economies: $2.18; World: $3.92. Year: 2005; Emerging and Developing Economies: $2.16; Advanced Economies: $2.13; World: $4.29. Year: 2006; Emerging and Developing Economies: $2.85; Advanced Economies: $2.30; World: $5.14. Year: 2007; Emerging and Developing Economies: $4.04; Advanced Economies: $2.47; World: $6.52. Year: 2008; Emerging and Developing Economies: $4.50; Advanced Economies: $2.54; World: $7.03. Source: GAO analysis of International Monetary Fund data. [End of figure] Related GAO work: * Understanding the effects of a global supplier base on U.S. national security interests and evaluating the effectiveness of programs to protect critical technologies. * Evaluating efforts to ensure a safe food supply. * Evaluating the effectiveness of federal programs to prevent, prepare for, and respond to public health emergencies. * Evaluating the effectiveness of international food security and food aid delivery. * Assessing U.S. export promotion programs and other trade-related jobs creation efforts. * Analyzing energy market regulation, competition, and information. Trend 5: Advances in Science and Technology: * Nanotechnology. * Biomedical technology. * Information technology: - Quantum computing; - Cloud computing; - Virtualization technologies; - Health IT. Figure: China Has Caught Up to the United States in Terms of the Number of Scientific Researchers Full-time equivalents: [Refer to PDF for image: multiple line graph] Full-time equivalents (in thousands): Year: 1995; Russia: 8; Taiwan: No data; Singapore: 610; China: 522; South Korea: 100; Japan: 673; European Union: 964; United States: 1036. Year: 1996; Russia: 9; Taiwan: 46; Singapore: 562; China: 548; South Korea: 99; Japan: 617; European Union: 960; United States: 1098. Year: 1997; Russia: 10; Taiwan: 48; Singapore: 533; China: 589; South Korea: 103; Japan: 625; European Union: 956; United States: 1160. Year: 1998; Russia: 11; Taiwan: 54; Singapore: 493; China: 486; South Korea: 93; Japan: 653; European Union: 994; United States: 1210. Year: 1999; Russia: 13; Taiwan: 55; Singapore: 497; China: 531; South Korea: 100; Japan: 659; European Union: 1036; United States: 1261. Year: 2000; Russia: 17; Taiwan: 56; Singapore: 506; China: 695; South Korea: 108; Japan: 648; European Union: 1079; United States: 1289. Year: 2001; Russia: 17; Taiwan: 60; Singapore: 506; China: 743; South Korea: 136; Japan: 676; European Union: 1116; United States: 1320. Year: 2002; Russia: 18; Taiwan: 70; Singapore: 492; China: 811; South Korea: 142; Japan: 647; European Union: 1174; United States: 1343. Year: 2003; Russia: 20; Taiwan: 75; Singapore: 488; China: 862; South Korea: 151; Japan: 675; European Union: 1206; United States: 1431. Year: 2004; Russia: 21; Taiwan: 81; Singapore: 478; China: 926; South Korea: 156; Japan: 677; European Union: 1239; United States: 1394. Year: 2005; Russia: 24; Taiwan: 89; Singapore: 465; China: 1119; South Korea: 180; Japan: 705; European Union: 1292; United States: 1388. Year: 2006; Russia: 25; Taiwan: 95; Singapore: 464; China: 1224; South Korea: 200; Japan: 710; European Union: 1342; United States: 1426. Year: 2007; Russia: 27; Taiwan: 104; Singapore: 469; China: 1423; South Korea: 222; Japan: 710; European Union: 1360; United States: 1442. Source: National Science Board. Note: 2007 data for United States are estimated based on annual growth rate between 1995 and 2006. [End of figure] Related GAO work: * Performing specialized studies and technology assessments of a wide range of science and technology issues, such as climate change, biotechnology, border security, the challenges of developing sophisticated space and defense systems, and renewable and sustainable energy. * Reviewing the effectiveness of computer and network security at federal agencies to better ensure the protection of government and personal information. * Assessing the government's planning, implementation, and use of IT. * Assessing the management and results of the federal investment in science and technology and the effectiveness of efforts to protect intellectual property. * Reviewing federal efforts to turn around low-performing schools and serve special populations. Trend 6: Increasing Impact of Networks and Virtualization: * Less-expensive technology that is increasingly more powerful. * Greater prevalence of wireless networks. * More powerful portable devices. * Increased collaboration and sharing at home, in school, and at work. * Consumers are becoming content creators. * Location and time independence (telework, virtual meetings). Related GAO work: * Assessing federal efforts to promote affordable access to telephone and broadband Internet services, including cloud computing. * Reviewing the management of government telecommunications and interconnected systems and federal agencies' effectiveness in providing secure, reliable, and fast Internet and Web connections. * Assessing DOD and DHS's efforts to enhance the resiliency of critical national assets, networks, and systems. * Analyzing and supporting efforts to improve the federal workforce infrastructure. Trend 7: Shifting Roles in Government and Governance: * Evolving roles for the public, private, and NGO sectors. * Contracting. * State and local government. * Non-profit and non-governmental organizations. Related GAO work: * Focusing on major areas that are at high-risk, including the U.S. Postal Service's financial condition, and on implementation of Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) Modernization Act of 2010. * Assessing the government's strategy for managing its reliance on contractors to ensure that agencies determine the right mix of as well as proper roles and responsibilities for government and contractor employees. * Identifying ways to improve the acquisition of goods and services by federal agencies. * Identifying opportunities to improve the coordination, collaboration, and governance of networks of governmental and nongovernmental organizations to address complex national issues. Trend 8: Demographic and Societal Changes Confronting Young and Old: Figure: Fewer Workers Will Be Supporting Each Retiree: [Refer to PDF for image: line graph] Year: 1960; Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Historical: 5.1. Year: 1970; Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Historical: 3.7. Year: 1980; Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Historical: 3.2. Year: 1990; Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Historical: 3.4. Year: 2000; Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Historical: 3.4 Year: 2010; Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 3.0. Year: 2020; Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.4. Year: 2030; Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.2. Year: 2040; Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.1. Year: 2050; Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.1. Year: 2060; Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.1. Year: 2070; Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.0. Year: 2080; Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.0. Year: 2085; Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 1.9. Source: Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees. [End of figure] Related GAO work: * Supporting health care financing and reform efforts through analyses of Medicare, Medicaid, and other health programs. * Assessing policy and administrative challenges to the federal government in providing for Americans' financial security in retirement, as well as options and strategies to help individuals ensure retirement security for themselves and their families. * Assessing financial and administrative challenges to providing employer-sponsored pensions and retaining older Americans in the workforce, and their implications for retirement security. * Evaluating the federal government's efforts to assist communities with combating crime and to safely and effectively manage a growing federal prison population. 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