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Meeting the Fiscal and Performance Challenges Facing Government:
NSAA Annual Conference:
June 15, 2011:
Williamsburg, VA:
Gene L. Dodaro:
Comptroller General of the United States:
GAO-11-754CG:
Overview:
* The Recovery Act:
- GAO's mandate & approach;
- Status of recommendations.
* Fiscal Challenges at all Levels of Government:
- Federal long-term simulations;
- State & Local: near-term and long-term.
* Initiatives to Improve Government:
- GPRA Modernization Act: Goals and GAO Role;
- GAO Mandate on Overlap and Duplication.
The Recovery Act:
The Recovery Act requires GAO to conduct bimonthly reviews and prepare
reports on the use of Recovery Act funds by selected States and
localities and to comment on quarterly recipients' estimates of jobs
created or retained.
Strategy:
* Longitudinal study of 16 states and the District of Columbia for FY
2009 and 2010 reports.
* Programmatic focus for FY 2011 and forward.
Programs Covered to Date:
April 2009 through September 2010 — Wide range of programs covered:
Medicaid, education, Head Start, highways and transit, housing
construction and tax credit assistance, emergency food and shelter,
justice assistance and community policing, workforce investment, and
environmental and energy projects.
December 2010 — Head Start Grantees Expand Services, but More
Consistent Communication Could Improve Accountability and Decisions
about Spending (GA0-11-166).
April 2011 — Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grant
Recipients Face Challenges Meeting Legislative and Program Goals and
Requirements (GA0-11-379).
Programs to be Covered in the Future:
Recovery Act: Preliminary Observations on the Use of Funds for Clean
and Drinking Water Projects: GAO-11-642T, May 4, 2011.
Late June 2011 — Reports on transportation infrastructure and on water
projects.
September 2011 — Education (Title I, IDEA, State Fiscal Stabilization Fund).
December 2011 — Weatherization Assistance.
February 2012 — Housing (Public Housing Capital Fund, Tax Credit
Assistance Program, Section 1602 Program)
Figure: Projected Versus Actual Federal Outlays to States and Localities
Under the Recovery Act:
[Refer to PDF for image: vertical bar graph]
$217.5 Billion in Actual Federal Outlays, as of June 3, 2011.
Fiscal year: 2009;
Estimated: $48.9 billion;
Actual Federal Outlay as of June 3, 2011: $52.9 billion.
Fiscal year: 2010;
Estimated: $107.7 billion;
Actual Federal Outlay as of June 3, 2011: $111.7 billion.
Fiscal year: 2011;
Estimated: $63.4 billion;
Actual Federal Outlay as of June 3, 2011: $52.9 billion.
Fiscal year: 2012;
Estimated: $23.3 billion.
Fiscal year: 2013;
Estimated: $14.4 billion.
Fiscal year: 2014;
Estimated: $9.1 billion.
Fiscal year: 2015;
Estimated: $5.7 billion.
Fiscal year: 2016;
Estimated: $2.5 billion.
Source: GAO analysis of data from CBO, Recovery.gov and Federal Funds
Information for States.
[End of figure]
Status of GAO Recommendations:
68 recommendations to 9 different agencies in bimonthly reports--over
half have been guidance implemented.
Some key recommendations still outstanding:
* Energy: develop & clarify weatherization program guidance;
* Labor: clarify guidance for state and local efforts to provide youth
with employment and training in green jobs;
* HUD: develop a risk-based plan for overseeing the Tax Credit
Assistance Program.
Ten of GAO's recommendations to OMB were aimed at making the Single
Audit a more effective oversight tool.
Single Audit: Lessons Learned from Recovery Act:
Single Audit enhancements needed for effective oversight of Recovery
Act funds (recommendations to OMB):
* Annual Single Audit guidance needs to be issued in a timely manner
to facilitate audit planning.
* Need to focus on high risk activities, programs, and grantees while
potentially streamlining, simplifying or reducing focus on areas of
low-risk.
* More timely Single Audit reporting is needed, especially in the area
of internal controls.
* Federal awarding agencies need to provide management decisions on
corrective action plans in a timely manner.
* Federal agencies need to make better use of Single Audit results in
oversight of programs.
[End of section]
Fiscal Challenges at All Levels Of Government:
Federal, State and Local Fiscal Condition and Longer-Term Outlook:
Figure: Federal Budget Surpluses and Deficits Under Different Fiscal
Policy Simulations:
[Refer to PDF for image: multiple line graph]
Percentage of GDP:
Year: 2000;
Baseline extended: 2.405;
Alternative: 2.405%.
Year: 2001;
Baseline extended: 1.254%;
Alternative: 1.254%.
Year: 2002;
Baseline extended: -1.497%;
Alternative: -1.497%.
Year: 2003;
Baseline extended: -3.439%;
Alternative: -3.439%.
Year: 2004;
Baseline extended: -3.532%;
Alternative: -3.532%.
Year: 2005;
Baseline extended: -2.558%;
Alternative: -2.558%.
Year: 2006;
Baseline extended: -1.877%;
Alternative: -1.877%.
Year: 2007;
Baseline extended: -1.157%;
Alternative: -1.157%.
Year: 2008;
Baseline extended: -3.186%;
Alternative: -3.186%.
Year: 2009;
Baseline extended: -10.021%;
Alternative: -10.021%.
Year: 2010;
Baseline extended: -8.917%;
Alternative: -8.917%.
Year: 2011;
Baseline extended: -9.843%;
Alternative: -9.843%.
Year: 2012;
Baseline extended: -7.008%;
Alternative: -7.14%.
Year: 2013;
Baseline extended: -4.294%;
Alternative: -6.41%.
Year: 2014;
Baseline extended: -3.091%;
Alternative: -6.421%.
Year: 2015;
Baseline extended: -3.027%;
Alternative: -6.806%.
Year: 2016;
Baseline extended: -3.441%;
Alternative: -7.523%.
Year: 2017;
Baseline extended: -3.078%;
Alternative: -7.492%.
Year: 2018;
Baseline extended: -2.915%;
Alternative: -7.666%.
Year: 2019;
Baseline extended: -3.182%;
Alternative: -8.232%.
Year: 2020;
Baseline extended: -3.237%;
Alternative: -8.635%.
Year: 2021;
Baseline extended: -3.206%;
Alternative: -8.954%.
Year: 2022;
Baseline extended: -3.537%;
Alternative: -9.63%.
Year: 2023;
Baseline extended: -3.702%;
Alternative: -10.357%.
Year: 2024;
Baseline extended: -3.977%;
Alternative: -11.115%.
Year: 2025;
Baseline extended: -4.375%;
Alternative: -11.911%.
Year: 2026;
Baseline extended: -4.553%;
Alternative: -12.513%.
Year: 2027;
Baseline extended: -4.837%;
Alternative: -13.125%.
Year: 2028;
Baseline extended: -5.231%;
Alternative: -13.851%.
Year: 2029;
Baseline extended: -5.527%;
Alternative: -14.491%.
Year: 2030;
Baseline extended: -5.816%;
Alternative: -15.131%.
Year: 2031;
Baseline extended: -6.103%;
Alternative: -15.775%.
Year: 2032;
Baseline extended: -6.504%;
Alternative: -16.422%.
Year: 2033;
Baseline extended: -6.677%;
Alternative: -17.075%.
Year: 2034;
Baseline extended: -6.958%;
Alternative: -17.735%.
Year: 2035;
Baseline extended: -7.234%;
Alternative: -18.396%.
Year: 2036;
Baseline extended: -7.509%;
Alternative: -19.063
Year: 2037;
Baseline extended: -7.9%;
Alternative: -19.849%.
Year: 2038;
Baseline extended: -8.159%.
Year: 2039;
Baseline extended: -8.413%.
Year: 2040;
Baseline extended: -8.661%.
Year: 2041;
Baseline extended: -8.908%.
Year: 2042;
Baseline extended: -9.153%.
Year: 2043;
Baseline extended: -9.398%.
Year: 2044;
Baseline extended: -9.645%.
Year: 2045;
Baseline extended: -9.897%.
Year: 2046;
Baseline extended: -10.286%.
Year: 2047;
Baseline extended: -10.547%.
Year: 2048;
Baseline extended: -10.806%.
Year: 2049;
Baseline extended: -11.064%.
Year: 2050;
Baseline extended: -11.192%.
Year: 2051;
Baseline extended: -11.597%.
Year: 2052;
Baseline extended: -11.876%.
Year: 2053;
Baseline extended: -12.159%.
Year: 2054;
Baseline extended: -12.45%.
Year: 2055;
Baseline extended: -12.752%.
Year: 2056;
Baseline extended: -13.061%.
Year: 2057;
Baseline extended: -13.229%.
Year: 2058;
Baseline extended: -13.679%.
Year: 2059;
Baseline extended: -13.993%.
Year: 2060;
Baseline extended: -14.166%.
Source: GAO.
Note: Data are from GAO's January 2011 simulations based on the
Trustees' assumptions for Social Security and the Trustees' and the
CMS Actuary's assumptions for Medicare.
[End of figure]
Figure: Debt Held by the Public under Two Fiscal Policy Simulations:
[Refer to PDF for image: multiple line graph]
Percent of GDP:
Historical high: 109 percent in 1946.
Fiscal year: 2000;
Baseline extended: 34.7%;
Alternative: 34.7%.
Fiscal year: 2001;
Baseline extended: 32.5%;
Alternative: 32.5%.
Fiscal year: 2002;
Baseline extended: 33.6%;
Alternative: 33.6%.
Fiscal year: 2003;
Baseline extended: 35.6%;
Alternative: 35.6%.
Fiscal year: 2004;
Baseline extended: 36.8%;
Alternative: 36.8%.
Fiscal year: 2005;
Baseline extended: 36.9%;
Alternative: 36.9%.
Fiscal year: 2006;
Baseline extended: 36.5%;
Alternative: 36.5%.
Fiscal year: 2007;
Baseline extended: 36.2%;
Alternative: 36.2%.
Fiscal year: 2008;
Baseline extended: 40.2%;
Alternative: 40.2%.
Fiscal year: 2009;
Baseline extended: 53.52%;
Alternative: 53.52%.
Fiscal year: 2010;
Baseline extended: 62.14%;
Alternative: 62.14%.
Fiscal year: 2011;
Baseline extended: 69.38%;
Alternative: 69.38%.
Fiscal year: 2012;
Baseline extended: 73.90%;
Alternative: 74.04%.
Fiscal year: 2013;
Baseline extended: 75.52%;
Alternative: 77.77%.
Fiscal year: 2014;
Baseline extended: 75.30%;
Alternative: 80.77%.
Fiscal year: 2015;
Baseline extended: 74.88%;
Alternative: 83.84%.
Fiscal year: 2016;
Baseline extended: 75.01%;
Alternative: 87.61%.
Fiscal year: 2017;
Baseline extended: 75.20%;
Alternative: 91.65%.
Fiscal year: 2018;
Baseline extended: 75.31%;
Alternative: 95.81%.
Fiscal year: 2019;
Baseline extended: 75.75%;
Alternative: 100.43%.
Fiscal year: 2020;
Baseline extended: 76.22%;
Alternative: 105.26%.
Fiscal year: 2021;
Baseline extended: 76.66%;
Alternative: 110.24%.
Fiscal year: 2022;
Baseline extended: 77.45%;
Alternative: 115.73%.
Fiscal year: 2023;
Baseline extended: 78.1%;
Alternative: 121.48%.
Fiscal year: 2024;
Baseline extended: 79.19%;
Alternative: 127.72%.
Fiscal year: 2025;
Baseline extended: 80.59%;
Alternative: 134.58%.
Fiscal year: 2026;
Baseline extended: 82.15%;
Alternative: 141.82%.
Fiscal year: 2027;
Baseline extended: 83.91%;
Alternative: 149.33%.
Fiscal year: 2028;
Baseline extended: 86.00%;
Alternative: 157.28%.
Fiscal year: 2029;
Baseline extended: 88.39%;
Alternative: 165.64%.
Fiscal year: 2030;
Baseline extended: 90.96%;
Alternative: 174.36%.
Fiscal year: 2031;
Baseline extended: 93.70%;
Alternative: 183.32%.
Fiscal year: 2032;
Baseline extended: 96.74%;
Alternative: 192.57%.
Fiscal year: 2033;
Baseline extended: 99.84%.
Fiscal year: 2034;
Baseline extended: 103.11%.
Fiscal year: 2035;
Baseline extended: 106.5%.
Fiscal year: 2036;
Baseline extended: 110.12%.
Fiscal year: 2037;
Baseline extended: 113.95%.
Fiscal year: 2038;
Baseline extended: 117.85%.
Fiscal year: 2039;
Baseline extended: 121.90%.
Fiscal year: 2040;
Baseline extended: 126.05%.
Fiscal year: 2041;
Baseline extended: 130.30%.
Fiscal year: 2042;
Baseline extended: 134.63%.
Fiscal year: 2043;
Baseline extended: 139.05%.
Fiscal year: 2044;
Baseline extended: 143.54%.
Fiscal year: 2045;
Baseline extended: 148.12%.
Fiscal year: 2046;
Baseline extended: 152.91%.
Fiscal year: 2047;
Baseline extended: 157.78%.
Fiscal year: 2048;
Baseline extended: 162.72%.
Fiscal year: 2049;
Baseline extended: 167.73%.
Fiscal year: 2050;
Baseline extended: 172.76%.
Fiscal year: 2051;
Baseline extended: 178.04%.
Fiscal year: 2052;
Baseline extended: 183.39%.
Fiscal year: 2053;
Baseline extended: 188.83%.
Fiscal year: 2054;
Baseline extended: 194.36%.
Fiscal year: 2055;
Baseline extended: 199.97%.
Source: GAO.
Note: Data are from GAO's January 2011 simulations based on the Social
Security Trustees' assumptions for Social Security and the Medicare
Trustees' and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Office of
the Actuary's assumptions for Medicare.
[End of figure]
Figure: Potential Fiscal Outcomes: Revenues and Composition of Spending
Under Baseline Extended Simulation:
[Refer to PDF for image: combined stacked vertical bar and line graph]
Percentage of GDP:
Fiscal year: 2010;
Net interest: 1.4%;
Social Security: 4.8%;
Medicare & Medicaid[A]: 5%;
All other spending: 12.6%;
Revenue: 14.9%.
Fiscal year: 2020;
Net interest: 3.3%;
Social Security: 5.2%;
Medicare & Medicaid[A]: 6.3%;
All other spending: 9.1%;
Revenue: 20.7%.
Fiscal year: 2030;
Net interest: 4.2%;
Social Security: 6%;
Medicare & Medicaid[A]: 7.6%;
All other spending: 8.9%;
Revenue: 20.8%.
Fiscal year: 2040;
Net interest: 5.7%;
Social Security: 6.2%;
Medicare & Medicaid[A]: 8.7%;
All other spending: 8.9%;
Revenue: 20.8%.
Note: Data are from GAO's January 2011 simulations based on the
Trustees' assumptions for Social Security and Medicare.
[A] This also includes spending for insurance exchange subsidies and
CHIP.
Source: GAO.
[End of figure]
Figure: Potential Fiscal Outcomes: Revenues and Composition of Spending
Under Alternative Simulation:
[Refer to PDF for image: combined stacked vertical bar and line graph]
Percentage of GDP:
Fiscal year: 2010;
Net interest: 1.4%;
Social Security: 4.8%;
Medicare & Medicaid[A]: 5%;
All other spending: 12.6%;
Revenue: 14.9%.
Fiscal year: 2020;
Net interest: 4.4%;
Social Security: 5.2%;
Medicare & Medicaid[A]: 6.7%;
All other spending: 10.7%;
Revenue: 18.3%.
Fiscal year: 2030;
Net interest: 7.8%;
Social Security: 6%;
Medicare & Medicaid[A]: 8.6%;
All other spending: 10.8%;
Revenue: 18%.
Fiscal year: 2040;
Net interest: 12.5%;
Social Security: 6.2%;
Medicare & Medicaid[A]: 10.4%;
All other spending: 10.8%;
Revenue: 18%.
Source: GAO.
Note: Data are from GAO's January 2011 simulations based on the
Trustees' assumptions for Social Security and the CMS Actuary's
assumptions for Medicare.
[A] This also includes spending for insurance exchange subsidies and
CHIP.
[End of figure]
Figure: State and Local Operating Balance Measure, as a Percentage of
Gross Domestic Product:
Positive Balance: Surplus.
Negative Balance: Deficit.
Year: 2005;
Balance: 0.1%.
Year: 2006;
Balance: 0.3%.
Year: 2007;
Balance: 0.1%.
Year: 2008;
Balance: -0.4%.
Year: 2009;
Balance: 0%.
Year: 2010;
Balance: 0%.
Year: 2011;
Balance: -0.4%.
Year: 2012;
Balance: -0.7%.
Year: 2013;
Balance: -0.9%.
Year: 2014;
Balance: -1%.
Year: 2015;
Balance: -1.1%.
Year: 2016;
Balance: -1.2%.
Year: 2017;
Balance: -1.3%.
Year: 2018;
Balance: -1.4%.
Year: 2019;
Balance: -1.5%.
Year: 2020;
Balance: -1.6%.
Year: 2021;
Balance: -1.7%.
Year: 2022;
Balance: -1.8%.
Year: 2023;
Balance: -1.7%.
Year: 2024;
Balance: -1.8%.
Year: 2025;
Balance: -1.9%.
Year: 2026;
Balance: -1.9%.
Year: 2027;
Balance: -1.9%.
Year: 2028;
Balance: -2%.
Year: 2029;
Balance: -2.1%.
Year: 2030;
Balance: -2.1%.
Year: 2031;
Balance: -2.2%.
Year: 2032;
Balance: -2.2%.
Year: 2033;
Balance: -2.2%.
Year: 2034;
Balance: -2.3%.
Year: 2035;
Balance: -2.3%.
Year: 2036;
Balance: -2.4%.
Year: 2037;
Balance: -2.5%.
Year: 2038;
Balance: -2.5%.
Year: 2039;
Balance: -2.6%.
Year: 2040;
Balance: -2.6%.
Year: 2041;
Balance: -2.7%.
Year: 2042;
Balance: -2.7%.
Year: 2043;
Balance: -2.7%.
Year: 2044;
Balance: -2.8%.
Year: 2045;
Balance: -2.8%.
Year: 2046;
Balance: -2.9%.
Year: 2047;
Balance: -3%.
Year: 2048;
Balance: -3%.
Year: 2049;
Balance: -3%.
Year: 2050;
Balance: -3%.
Year: 2051;
Balance: -3.1%.
Year: 2052;
Balance: -3.2%.
Year: 2053;
Balance: -3.2%.
Year: 2054;
Balance: -3.2%.
Year: 2055;
Balance: -3.3%.
Year: 2056;
Balance: -3.3%.
Year: 2057;
Balance: -3.3%.
Year: 2058;
Balance: -3.4%.
Year: 2059;
Balance: -3.4%.
Year: 2060;
Balance: -3.4%.
Source: GAO simulations, updated April 2011.
Note: Historical data are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis's
National Income and Product Accounts from 1980 to 2009. Data in 2010
are GAO estimates aligned with published data where available. GAO
simulations are from 2011 to 2060, using many Congressional Budget
Office projections and assumptions, particularly for the next 10
years. Simulations are based on current policy.
[End of figure]
Figure: State and Local Governments Face Increasing Fiscal Challenges:
[Refer to PDF for image; multiple line graph]
Percent of GDP:
Year: 1980;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: 0.09%.
Year: 1981;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: 0.079%.
Year: 1982;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: 0.089%.
Year: 1983;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: 0.509%.
Year: 1984;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: 0.559%.
Year: 1985;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: 0.550%.
Year: 1986;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: 0.553%.
Year: 1987;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: 0.076%.
Year: 1988;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: 0.141%.
Year: 1989;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: 0.184%.
Year: 1990;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.162%.
Year: 1991;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.298%.
Year: 1992;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.197%.
Year: 1993;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.132%.
Year: 1994;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.169%.
Year: 1995;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.099%.
Year: 1996;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: 0.063%.
Year: 1997;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: 0.224%.
Year: 1998;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: 0.369%.
Year: 1999;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: 0.152%.
Year: 2000;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: 0.149%.
Year: 2001;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.275%.
Year: 2002;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.688%.
Year: 2003;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.494%.
Year: 2004;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.266%.
Year: 2005;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: 0.092%.
Year: 2006;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: 0.297%.
Year: 2007;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: 0.089%.
[Highlighted portion of graph:
Year: 2008;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -0.386%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.386%.
Year: 2009;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -0.353%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.197%.
Year: 2010;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -0.790%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.268%.
Year: 2011;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -0.848%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.821%.
Year: 2012;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -0.788%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.832%.
Year: 2013;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -0.671%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.704%.
[End highlighted portion of graph]
Year: 2014;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -0.566%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.678%.
Year: 2015;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -0.586%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.721%.
Year: 2016;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -0.644%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.774%.
Year: 2017;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -0.716%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.834%.
Year: 2018;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -0.763%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.907%.
Year: 2019;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -0.853%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.941%.
Year: 2020;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -0.900%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -0.982%.
Year: 2021;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -0.953%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -1.041%.
Year: 2022;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -1.017%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -1.078%.
Year: 2023;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -1.087%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -1.132%.
Year: 2024;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -1.162%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -1.181%.
Year: 2025;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -1.241%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -1.243%.
Year: 2026;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -1.324%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -1.314%.
Year: 2027;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -1.412%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -1.389%.
Year: 2028;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -1.502%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -1.468%.
Year: 2029;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -1.594%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -1.543%.
Year: 2030;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -1.690%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -1.631%.
Year: 2031;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -1.789%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -1.725%.
Year: 2032;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -1.888%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -1.824%.
Year: 2033;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -1.987%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -1.931%.
Year: 2034;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -2.086%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -2.028%.
Year: 2035;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -2.185%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -2.131%.
Year: 2036;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -2.286%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -2.235%.
Year: 2037;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -2.388%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -2.347%.
Year: 2038;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -2.491%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -2.452%.
Year: 2039;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -2.593%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -2.564%.
Year: 2040;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -2.696%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -2.680%.
Year: 2041;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -2.798%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -2.793%.
Year: 2042;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -2.901%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -2.898%.
Year: 2043;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -3.002%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -3.015%.
Year: 2044;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -3.106%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -3.137%.
Year: 2045;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -3.210%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -3.257%.
Year: 2046;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -3.318%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -3.371%.
Year: 2047;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -3.424%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -3.497%.
Year: 2048;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -3.537%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -3.622%.
Year: 2049;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -3.649%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -3.757%.
Year: 2050;
Operating Surplus/Deficit January 2009 Adjusted: -3.760%;
Operating Surplus/Deficit March 2010: -3.883%.
Source: GAO Simulations, updated March 2010.
Notes: Historical data are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
National Income and Product Accounts from 1980 to 2008. Data in 2009
are GAO estimates aligned with published data where available. GAO
simulations are from 2010 to 2059, using many Congressional Budget
Office (CBO) projections and assumptions, particularly for the next 10
years. Simulations are based on current policy.
[End of figure]
[End of section]
Efforts To Improve Government:
GPRA Modernization Act Overlap & Duplication:
GPRA Modernization Act Goals:
* Adopting a more coordinated and crosscutting approach to achieving
common goals.
* Addressing weaknesses in major management functions.
* Ensuring performance information is both useful and used in decision
making.
* Instilling sustained leadership commitment and accountability for
achieving results.
* Engaging Congress in identifying management and performance issues
to address.
Coordinated and Crosscutting Approaches to Achieve Common Goals:
The act requires OMB, in coordination with agencies, to:
* Develop long-term, outcome-oriented goals for a limited number of
crosscutting policy areas.
* Provide information annually on how these crosscutting goals will be
achieved.
Effective implementation of these requirements could help inform
reexamination or restructuring efforts.
GAO's recent report on duplication, overlap, and fragmentation
highlight areas where such an approach is needed. For example:
* Teacher quality programs;
* Military health system;
* Employment and training programs;
* Surface transportation;
* Economic development programs.
Addressing Weaknesses in Major Management Functions:
Agencies need more effective management capabilities to better
implement programs and policies.
OMB required to develop goals to improve management functions across
the government:
* Financial management;
* Human capital;
* Information technology;
* Procurement and acquisition;
* Real property.
GAO recently identified cost-savings or revenue enhancement
opportunities that touch on needed improvements to management
functions, including:
* Medicaid and Medicare improper payments;
* Tax expenditures;
* Data centers;
* Real property;
* Noncompetitive contracts;
* Undisbursed grant balances.
Ensuring Performance Information is Useful and Used:
For performance information to be both useful and used, it must meet
various users' needs for completeness, accuracy, validity, timeliness,
and ease of use. Requirements that may help:
* Agencies to disclose more information on the accuracy and validity
of their performance data, such as data sources.
* Quarterly, rather than annual, reporting for priority goals.
* Information to be posted on a governmentwide website.
To ensure that federal officials have the knowledge and skills
necessary to use the information they are gathering, the act requires
OPM to:
* Identify key skills and competencies needed to carry out performance
management activities.
* Incorporate those skills and competencies into relevant position
classifications and agency training.
The Need for Reliable Cost Information:
Need is greater than ever for timely & accurate information about
costs of specific programs and services for use in performance metrics.
Reliable cost information can help:
* Provide accurate comparisons on costs/benefits;
* Inform budgets and proposals for reorganization/consolidation;
* Identify potential cost control, efficiencies, and waste;
* Benchmark programs and activities;
* Set appropriate fees to recover the costs of services;
* Measure program and managers' performance.
Sustained Leadership Commitment and Accountability for Results:
The act creates several new leadership structures and responsibilities
aimed at sustaining attention on improvement efforts:
* Chief Operating Officer and Performance Improvement Officer at each
agency.
* Governmentwide Performance Improvement Council to assist in carrying
out the governmentwide performance and reporting requirements of the
act.
* Quarterly reviews for the governmentwide and agency priority goals
that involve top leadership.
Sustained Leadership Commitment and Accountability for Results:
The act also creates individual and organization accountability
provisions that have the potential to keep attention focused on
achieving results:
* Lead official for each governmentwide goal--charged with
coordinating efforts across agencies.
* Agency goal leaders for achieving each of the agency's
achieving performance goals.
* OMB to report on unmet agency goals each year;
- If unmet for 3 years, OMB can propose termination or restructuring
or other actions.
Engaging Congress:
Significantly enhances requirements for agencies to consult with
Congress when establishing or adjusting governmentwide and agency
goals.
* OMB and agencies to consult about proposed goals with relevant
committees-—majority and minority-—at least once every 2 years.
* OMB and agencies required to describe how they incorporated
congressional input into their goals.
Congress can play decisive role in fostering results-oriented cultures
by using information on goals and results in its deliberations.
* Congressional use of agency goals and performance information in its
decision making will send an unmistakable message to agencies that
Congress considers agency performance a priority.
* Congressional oversight also essential to ensure further improvement
in the performance of federal programs and operations.
GAO's Role in Evaluating Implementation of the GPRA Modernization Act:
* Report on implementation of the act's planning and reporting
requirements at both the governmentwide and agency levels by June
2013.
* Evaluate how performance management is being used by federal
agencies to improve their results (by September 2015 and September
2017).
* Evaluate implementation of the federal government priority goals and
performance plans, and related reporting requirements (by September
2015, September 2017, and then every 4 years).
Other Recurring GAO Reports Also Help Evaluate High Risk and Other
Major Government Challenges:
* Annual audit of the consolidated financial statements of the U.S.
government and the condition of federal financial management systems.
* High Risk List: reports to each new Congress on government
operations that GAO identifies as high risk due to their greater
vulnerabilities to fraud, waste, abuse, and mismanagement, or the need
for broad-based transformation to address economy, efficiency, or
effectiveness challenges.
* Ongoing statutory requirement to report each year on federal
programs, agencies, offices, and initiatives which have duplicative
goals or activities--either within or across departments.
GAO Mandate on Overlap and Duplication:
This mandate will contribute both to:
* improving government performance and;
* reducing costs and increasing revenues (amount depends on actions
taken).
First annual report (issued in March 2011):
* identified 81 areas for the Administration and Congress to consider
action to reduce the cost of government operations or enhance revenue;
* spanned a range of federal government missions (e.g. agriculture,
defense, economic development, energy, general government, health,
homeland security, international affairs, and social services).
Breakdown of Areas for Consideration:
81 Areas are made up of:
* 34 where:
- agencies, offices, or initiatives have similar or overlapping
objectives;
- or provide similar services to the same populations;
- or where government missions are fragmented across multiple agencies
or programs.
* 47 other opportunities to consider where action could either:
- reduce the cost of government operations or;
- enhance revenue collections.
Moving Forward:
Moving forward:
* currently identifying issue areas to be covered in the 2012 report;
* developing a methodology to ensure that all the major functions and
activities of the federal government will have been addressed with the
issuance of the 2013 report.
GAO will also be monitoring progress made in addressing issues raised
in issued reports.
Concluding Observations:
* Significant fiscal pressures facing government at all levels.
* Critical need for better performance measures and analysis on ways
to improve government in order to help with tough choices ahead.
* Accountability professionals face challenge of providing insight and
ways to make government more efficient and effective.
[End of section]
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Web site: [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/]
Contact:
Chuck Young, Managing Director, Public Affairs, youngc1@gao.gov;
(202) 512-4800,
U.S. Government Accountability Office:
441 G Street NW, Room 7149:
Washington, D.C. 20548:
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[End of presentation]