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Testimony:



Before the Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces, Committee on 

Armed Services, House of Representatives:



United States General Accounting Office:



GAO:



For Release on Delivery Expected at 2:00 p.m. EST:



Wednesday, April 2, 2003:



TACTICAL AIRCRAFT:



Status of the F/A-22 Program:



Statement of Allen Li, Director 

Acquisition and Sourcing Management:



GAO-03-603T:



GAO Highlights:



Highlights of GAO-03-603T, a testimony before the Subcommittee on 

Tactical Air and Land Forces, House Committee on Armed Services 



Why GAO Did This Study:



The Air Force is developing the F/A-22 aircraft to replace its fleet of 

F-15 air superiority aircraft.  The F/A-22 is designed to be superior 

to the F-15 by being capable of flying at higher speeds for longer 

distances, less detectable, and able to provide the pilot with 

substantially improved awareness of the surrounding situation.  



The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 1998 requires us 

to annually assess the F/A-22 development program and determine whether 

the program is meeting key performance, schedule, and cost goals.  We 

have issued six of these annual reports to Congress.   We have also 

reported on F/A-22 production program costs over the last 3 years.  

Most recently, we reported on F/A-22 production and development in 

February and March 2003 respectively. 



This testimony summarizes our work on the F/A-22 program, covering 

performance, cost, and scheduling issues.



What GAO Found:



In the past several years, we have reported on a range of problems 

affecting the development of F/A-22.  Specifically:



* F/A-22 estimated performance in the areas of supercruise, 

acceleration, maneuverability, radar observability, combat radius, and 

range in searching targets have so far been met or exceeded. However, 

problems have surfaced related to overheating during high-speed flight-

testing, reliability, avionics that perform radar, communication, 

navigation, identification and electronic warfare functions as well as 

excess movement of the vertical tails.   Modifications are being made 

to some test aircraft to address some of these problems.  For now, 

however, testing in some areas is restricted.



* Each year since 1998, we have reported that assembly of the test 

aircraft was requiring more time than planned and that this was causing 

the test aircraft to be delivered late to the test center for flight-

testing.  We have also reported annually since 2000 that flight-test 

program efficiency—the amount of flight-testing accomplished—has been 

less than planned.



* Cost increases have plagued the F/A-22 program since development 

began in 1991.  Since 1997, the Air Force’s estimated cost to develop 

the F/A-22 has increased by $3.2 billion bringing the total estimate to 

$21.9 billion.  In addition, over the last 6 years, DOD has identified 

about $18 billion in estimated production cost growth bringing the 

total estimate to $42.2 billion---which exceeds the congressionally 

mandated production cost limit of $36.8 billion.  Further, 

modernization costs have increased dramatically in recent years.  

Actions to offset estimated cost growth have had mixed success.    



These problems have dramatically affected the F/A-22 program.  Cost 

increases, in part, have forced the Air Force to substantially decrease 

the number of aircraft to be purchased—from 648 to 276.  Delays in 

testing also have significant consequences. Continuing to acquire 

aircraft before adequate testing is a high-risk strategy that could 

serve to further increase production costs.   



Moreover, F/A-22 problems have limited DOD’s ability to upgrade its 

aging tactical aircraft fleet.  If the F/A-22 program had met its 

original goals, the Air Force could have been replacing older aircraft 

with F/A-22 aircraft over 7 years ago.  Now, however, it will not begin 

replacing aircraft until late 2005 at the earliest.  The rate of 

replenishment will be substantially lower, due to the decrease in the 

number of new aircraft to be purchased.  As a result, DOD will have to 

continue to use tactical aircraft that contribute to increased 
operating

and support costs and it will have to wait longer than anticipated to 

have access to the advanced capabilities to be offered by the F/A-22.



What GAO Recommends:



GAO is not making recommendations in this testimony.   However, 

recommendations in several prior GAO reports have stressed the need for 

the Air Force to not increase annual production rates until greater 

knowledge is achieved through the completion of testing



www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-03-603T.



To view the full testimony, click on the link above.

For more information, contact Allen Li at (202) 512-4841 or 

Lia@gao.gov.



[End of section]



Chairman Weldon, Ranking Member Abercrombie, and Members of the 

Subcommittee:



I am pleased to be here today to discuss our work on the F/A-22 

development and production programs. Today’s hearing occurs at a 

critical time--with the Department of Defense (DOD) conducting 

operations overseas while seeking to respond to changes in security 

threats and still meeting the challenge of transforming the military. 

DOD is spending an average of $150 billion annually on acquisition to 

support its current missions and to invest in future capabilities. The 

magnitude of this investment, combined with fiscal pressures across the 

government and the public’s growing expectations for demonstrable 

results, clearly requires DOD to be as efficient and effective as 

possible in obtaining new weapons systems.



The F/A-22 Raptor, designed to be superior to any known or projected 

adversary aircraft, is a key component in DOD’s modernization strategy 

as it is designed to replace the F-15 fighter. As you know, the Air 

Force started developing the F/A-22 in 1991. While it plans to complete 

development in July 2004, important operational test and evaluation 

activities have yet to be completed. Low-rate production was approved 

in August 2001, and the Air Force plans to procure a minimum of 276 

aircraft for $42.2 billion.



As requested, I will discuss our past and recent findings related to 

the F/A-22 program. Specifically, I will highlight the Air Force’s 

progress in (1) addressing performance issues and the status of actions 

to address them, (2) resolving delays in flight-testing and (3) dealing 

with cost growth. I will also identify risks in the Air Force’s 

acquisition plan. Problems in these areas have dramatically affected 

the program. For example, cost increases have been a factor in the Air 

Force substantially decreasing the number of aircraft to be purchased-

-from 648 to 276. Performance problems, which are now being addressed, 

have limited the Air Force’s ability to test the aircraft. Delays in 

testing have significant consequences. Continuing to acquire aircraft 

before adequate testing is a high-risk strategy that could serve to 

further increase production costs.



Together, these problems have rippling effects on DOD’s ability to 

upgrade its aging tactical aircraft fleet. If the F/A-22 program had 

met its original goals, the Air Force could have been replacing older 

aircraft with F/A-22 aircraft over 7 years ago. Now, however, it will 

not begin replacing aircraft until late 2005 at the earliest. Moreover, 

the rate of replenishment will be substantially lower, due to the 

decrease in the number of new aircraft to be purchased. As a result, 

DOD will have to continue to use tactical aircraft that contribute to 

increased operating and support costs and it will have to wait longer 

than anticipated to have access to the advanced capabilities offered by 

the F/A-22.



Background:



The Air Force is developing the F/A-22[Footnote 1] aircraft to replace 

its fleet of F-15 air superiority aircraft. The F/A-22 is designed to 

be superior to the F-15 by being capable of flying at higher speeds for 

longer distances, less detectable, and able to provide the pilot with 

substantially improved awareness of the surrounding situation.



The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 1998[Footnote 2] 

requires us to annually assess the F/A-22 development program and 

determine whether the program is meeting key performance, schedule, and 

cost goals. We have issued six of these annual reports to Congress. We 

have also reported on F/A-22 production program costs over the last 3 

years. Most recently, we reported on F/A-22 production and development 

in February and March 2003, respectively.[Footnote 3]



Following a history of increasing cost estimates to complete the 

development phase of the F/A-22 program, the National Defense 

Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 1998 established a cost limitation 

for both the development and production programs.[Footnote 4] 

Subsequently, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 

2002 eliminated the cost limitation for the development program but 

left the cost limit for production in place.[Footnote 5] The production 

program is now limited to $36.8 billion.[Footnote 6] The current cost 

estimate of the development program is $21.9 billion.



Performance Issues:



In the past several years, we have reported on a range of performance 

issues that have arisen during the development of the F/A-22. F/A-22 

estimated performance in the areas of supercruise, acceleration, 

maneuverability, radar observability, combat radius, and radar range in 

searching targets have so far been met or exceeded. However, problems 

have surfaced related to some overheating concerns during high-speed 

flight-testing, reliability, avionics that perform radar, 

communication, navigation, identification and electronic warfare 

functions as well as excess movement of the vertical tails. 

Modifications are being made to some test aircraft to address some of 

these problems. For now, however, testing in some areas is restricted.



In 2001, we reported on continuing increases in aircraft weight and 

that more frequent maintenance than planned on the aircraft was being 

required. We also reported on structural inadequacies in the aft (rear) 

fuselage and on problems with the separation of some materials within 

the horizontal tail section and cracking of the clear section of the 

canopy. In 2002, we again reported that the F/A-22’s performance could 

be affected by increased aircraft weight and maintenance needs as well 

as a potential problem with “buffeting”, or excessive movement, of the 

aircraft’s vertical tails. We also continued to report on problems with 

the separation of materials within the horizontal tail section and 

cracking of the clear section of the canopy.



We reported last month that the F/A-22 developmental program did not 

meet key performance goals established for fiscal year 2002 and 

continues to confront numerous technical challenges, specifically:



* Avionics instability: Software instability has hampered efforts to 

integrate advanced avionics capabilities into the F/A-22 system. 

Avionics control and integrated airborne electronics and sensors are 

designed to provide an increased awareness of the situation around the 

pilot. The Air Force told us avionics have failed or shut down during 

numerous tests of F/A-22 aircraft due to software problems. The 

shutdowns have occurred when the pilot attempts to use the radar, 

communication, navigation, identification, and electronic warfare 

systems concurrently. Although the plane can still be flown after the 

avionics have failed, the pilot is unable to successfully demonstrate 

the performance of the avionics. Therefore, the Air Force has had to 

extend the test program schedule.



The Air Force has recognized that the avionics problems pose a high 

technical risk to the F/A-22 program, and in June 2002 the Air Force 

convened a special team to address the problem. According to the team, 

the unpredictable nature of the shutdowns was not surprising 

considering the complexity of the avionics system. The team recommended 

that the software be stabilized in the laboratory before releasing it 

to flight-testing. The team further recommended conducting a stress 

test on the software system architecture to reduce problems and ensure 

it is operating properly. The Air Force implemented these 

recommendations. Further, the Air Force extended the avionics schedule 

to accommodate avionics stability testing and it now plans to complete 

avionics testing in the first quarter of 2005. However, Air Force 

officials stated they do not yet understand the problems associated 

with the instability of the avionics software well enough to predict 

when they will be able to resolve this problem.



* Vertical fin buffeting: Under some circumstances, the F/A-22 

experiences violent movement, or buffeting, of the vertical fins in the 

tail section of the aircraft. Buffeting occurs as air, moving first 

over the body and the wings of the aircraft, places unequal pressures 

on the vertical fins and rudders. The buffeting problem has restricted 

the testing of aerial maneuvers of the aircraft. In addition, unless 

the violent movement is resolved or the fins strengthened, the fins 

will break over time because the pressures experienced exceed the 

strength limits of the fins. This could have an impact on the expected 

structural life of the aircraft. Lockheed Martin has developed several 

modifications to strengthen the vertical fins.



* Overheating concerns: Overheating in the rear portions of the 

aircraft has significantly restricted the duration of high-speed 

flight-testing. As the F/A-22 flies, heat builds up inside several 

areas in the rear of the aircraft. Continued exposure to high 

temperatures would weaken these areas. For example, a portion of the 

airframe that sits between the engines’ exhausts experiences the 

highest temperatures. This intense heat could weaken or damage the 

airframe. To prevent this heat buildup during flight-testing, the 

aircraft is restricted to flying just over 500 miles per hour, about 

the same speed as a modern jet liner, and significantly below the 

supercruise[Footnote 7] requirement. Currently, the F/A-22 flies with 

temperature sensors in those areas of the aircraft and slows down 

whenever the temperature approaches a certain level. The Air Force may 

incorporate a modification that adds copper sheets to the rear of the 

aircraft to alleviate the problem. The Air Force began these 

modifications in January 2003 and plans to complete them by July 2003.



* Horizontal tail material separations: F/A-22 aircraft have 

experienced separations of materials in the horizontal tail and the 

shaft, which allow the tail to pivot. Because the separations reduce 

tail strength, the Air Force restricted flight-testing of some aircraft 

until it had determined that this problem would not affect flight 

safety during testing. The Air Force and the contractor initially 

believed that improvements to the aircraft’s manufacturing process 

would solve this problem. However, the Air Force has determined that it 

could only solve this problem by redesigning the aircraft’s tail. The 

Air Force plans to conduct flight-testing of the redesigned tail 

between February 2004 and April 2004.



* Airlift support requirements: The Air Force estimates it will not 

meet the F/A-22 airlift support requirement--a key performance 

parameter.[Footnote 8] The airlift support requirement is that 8 C-141 

aircraft or their equivalents would be sufficient to deploy a squadron 

of 24 F/A-22s for 30 days without resupply. Today, the Air Force 

estimates that 8.8 C-141 equivalents will be necessary.



* Impact of maintenance needs on performance: The F/A-22’s performance 

may also be affected by maintenance needs that exceed established 

objectives. The Air Force estimates that the F/A-22 should, at this 

point in its development, be able to complete 1.67 flying hours between 

maintenance actions and 1.95 flying hours by the end of development. 

However, aircraft are requiring five times the maintenance actions 

expected at this point in development. As of November 2002, the 

development test aircraft have been completing only .29 flying hours 

between maintenance actions. Therefore, the development test aircraft 

are spending more time than planned on the ground undergoing 

maintenance.



Flight Test Schedule Delays:



Testing is instrumental to gauging the progress being made when an idea 

or a concept is translated into an actual product that people use. DOD 

divides testing into two categories: developmental and operational. The 

goal of developmental tests is to determine whether the weapon system 

meets the technical specifications of the contract. The goal of 

operational testing is to evaluate the effectiveness and suitability of 

the weapon system in realistic combat conditions. Operational testing 

is managed by different military test organizations that represent the 

customers, such as the combat units that will use the weapons. The 

results of operational tests are provided to Congress as well as the 

Secretary of Defense and senior service officials.



Our reviews over the years have underscored the importance of not 

delaying tests too late in development--when it is more difficult, 

costly, and time consuming to fix any problems discovered. Yet, we have 

been reporting on delays of flight tests for the F/A-22 and that these 

delays have contributed to scheduling and cost problems affecting the 

program.



F/A-22 flight-testing began in late 1997. Each year since 1998, we have 

reported that assembly of the test aircraft was requiring more time 

than planned and that this was causing the test aircraft to be 

delivered late to the test center for flight-testing. We have also 

reported annually since 2000 that the flight-test program efficiency--

the amount of flight-testing accomplished--has been less than planned.



In March 2003, we reported that F/A-22 flight-testing was slower than 

expected in 2002 in all test areas according to Office of the Secretary 

of Defense (OSD) testing officials. Consequently, the Air Force 

extended flight test schedules and reduced the number of flight tests. 

Many tasks originally planned for 2002 were rescheduled for 2003. 

Further, the Air Force now plans to conduct more developmental flight-

testing concurrently with operational testing.



Continuing technical problems were the primary reasons for the most 

recent delay in flight-testing. In addition, late delivery of 

development aircraft to the flight-test center continued to be a 

contributing problem. Late deliveries were due not only to technical 

problems but also to ongoing problems associated with the manufacture 

and assembly of development aircraft by the prime contractor.



With the new schedule, the Air Force delayed the beginning of 

operational testing for 4 months, until the portion of developmental 

testing required to begin operational testing could be completed. 

Operational testing is now planned to begin in August 2003. Table 1 

shows the changes in key F/A-22 schedule events.



Table 1: Schedule Changes for Key F/A-22 Test Program Events:



Key Events: Completion of development flight testing necessary prior to 

operational testing; Prior Schedule: Apr. 2003; Revised Schedule: Aug. 

2003; Change in months: 4.



Key Events: Start of operational testing; Prior Schedule: Apr. 2003; 

Revised Schedule: Aug. 2003; Change in months: 4.



Key Events: Completion of operational testing; Prior Schedule: Dec. 

2003; Revised Schedule: Jul. 2004; Change in months: 7.



Key Events: High-rate production decision; Prior Schedule: Mar. 2004; 

Revised Schedule: Mar. 2004; Change in months: 0.



Source: U.S. Air Force.



[End of table]



Further, according to OSD officials involved in operational testing, 

there is a high risk of not completing an adequate amount of 

development flight-testing before operational testing is scheduled to 

begin. Indeed, we believe that it is unlikely that the Air Force will 

be able to complete all necessary avionics flight-testing prior to the 

planned start of operational testing. Based on F/A-22 flight test 

accomplishment data and current flight test plans, we project that the 

start of operational testing might be delayed until January 2004. As a 

result, operational testing could be delayed by several months beyond 

the current planned date of August 2003.



Cost Increases:



Cost increases have plagued the F/A-22 program since it began in 1991. 

They have spurred Congress to impose spending limits and have forced 

the Air Force to scale back production. Nevertheless, the Air Force is 

still contending with cost increases in three principal areas: 

development, production, and modernization.



Development Costs:



Since 1997, the Air Force’s estimated cost to develop the F/A-22 has 

increased by $3.2 billion. Figure 1 highlights development cost 

limitation and estimate increases during the past 6 years.



Figure 1: Development Cost Limitation and Estimate Increases Since 

1997:



[See PDF for image]



[End of figure]





Increases prior to 1998 have prompted limitations on spending from 

Congress. While the Air Force held the position that these limitations 

could be met until recently, our reviews showed that there was a 

potential for additional increases because of delays. Table 2 presents 

a time line of congressional limitations, our findings and DOD’s 

positions.



Figure 2: Chronology of Development Cost Growth:



[See PDF for image]



[A] Adjusted to reflect conferee direction and reduced effect of 

inflation.



[B] Adjusted for inflation.



[End of figure]



The initial congressional limitation of $18.688 billion established in 

1997 followed an Air Force team’s review of estimated development and 

production costs. That team concluded in 1997 that additional time 

would be required to complete the development program and estimated 

that costs would increase from $17.4 billion to $18.688 billion. The 

team recommended several changes to the development program’s schedule, 

including slower manufacturing than planned for a more efficient 

transition from development to low-rate initial production and an 

additional 12 months to complete avionics development.



The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 1998 then 

established this $18.688 billion amount as a cost limitation for the 

development program.[Footnote 9] Congressional direction in fiscal year 

2000 legislation shifted six production representative test aircraft to 

the development program and caused the cost limitation to be adjusted 

upward to $20.4 billion. In September 2001, DOD acknowledged that the 

cost to complete the development program would exceed the cost 

limitation by $557 million. This increase brought the development cost 

estimate to $21 billion. Subsequently, in December 2001, the National 

Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2002 eliminated the 

development cost limitation.



In March 2003, we reported that the Air Force estimated that 

development costs had increased by $876 million, bringing total 

development cost to $21.9 billion. This increase was due to the 

technical problems and schedule delays related to avionics and vertical 

fin buffeting discussed earlier.



Production Cost Growth:



Over the last 6 years, DOD has identified about $18 billion in 

estimated production cost growth during the course of two DOD program 

reviews. As a result, the estimated cost of the production program 

currently exceeds the congressional cost limit. The Air Force has 

implemented cost reduction plans designed to offset a significant 

amount of this estimated cost growth. But the effectiveness of these 

cost reduction plans has varied.



During a 1997 review, the Air Force estimated cost growth of $13.1 

billion.[Footnote 10] The major contributing factors to this cost 

growth were inflation, increased estimates of labor costs and materials 

associated with the airframe and engine, and engineering changes to the 

airframe and engine. These factors made up about 75 percent of the cost 

growth identified in 1997.



In August 2001, DOD estimated an additional $5.4 billion in cost growth 

for the production of the F/A-22, bringing total estimated production 

cost to $43 billion. The major contributing factors to this cost growth 

were again due to increased labor costs and airframe and engine costs. 

These factors totaled almost 70 percent of the cost growth. According 

to program officials, major contractors’ and suppliers’ inability to 

achieve the expected reductions in labor costs throughout the building 

of the development and early production aircraft has been the primary 

reason for estimating this additional cost growth.



Mixed Success With Cost Reduction Plans:



The Air Force was able to implement cost reduction plans and offset 

cost growth by nearly $2 billion in the first four production contracts 

awarded. As shown in table 2, the total offsets for these contracts 

slightly exceeded earlier projections by about $.5 million.



Table 2: Comparison of Planned Versus Implemented Cost Reduction 

Offsets for Awarded Production Contracts:



(Dollars in millions).



Fiscal Year 1999 (2 aircraft); Planned 

offsets: $199.0; Implemented 

offsets: $200.5; Difference: $1.5.



Fiscal Year 2000 (6 aircraft); Planned 

offsets: $329.3; Implemented 

offsets: $336.4; Difference: $7.1.



Fiscal Year 2001 (10 aircraft); Planned 

offsets: $580.2; Implemented 

offsets: $611.1; Difference: $30.9.



Fiscal Year 2002 (13 aircraft); Planned 

offsets: $827.2; Implemented 

offsets: $788.2; Difference: $(39.0).



Total; Planned 

offsets: $1,935.7; Implemented 

offsets: $1,936.2; Difference: $.5.



Source: Air Force.



[End of table]



Cost reduction plans exist but have not yet been implemented for 

subsequent production lots planned for fiscal years 2003 through 2010 

because contracts for these production lots have not yet been awarded. 

If implemented successfully, the Air Force expects these cost reduction 

plans to achieve billions of dollars in offsets to estimated cost 

growth and to allow the production program to be completed within the 

current production cost estimate of $43 billion.[Footnote 11] However, 

this amount exceeds the production cost limit of $36.8 billion.



In addition, while the Air Force has been attempting to offset costs 

through production improvement programs (PIP), recent funding cutbacks 

for PIPs may reduce their effectiveness. PIPs focus specifically on 

improving production processes to realize savings by using an initial 

government investment. The earlier the Air Force implements PIPs, the 

greater the impact on the cost of production. Examples of PIPs 

previously implemented by the Air Force include manufacturing process 

improvements for avionics, improvements in fabrication and assembly 

processes for the airframe, and redesign of several components to 

enable lower production costs.



As shown in figure 2, the Air Force reduced the funding available for 

investment in PIPs by $61 million for lot 1 and $26 million for lot 2 

to cover cost growth in production lots 1 and 2.[Footnote 12] As a 

result, it is unlikely that PIPs covering these two lots will be able 

to offset cost growth as planned.



Figure 3: Planned Versus Actual F/A-22 Production Improvement Program 

Investment for Production Lots 1 (Fiscal Year 2001) and 2 (Fiscal Year 

2002):



[See PDF for image]



[End of figure]





Figure 3 shows the remaining planned investment in PIPs through fiscal 

year 2006 and the $3.7 billion in estimated cost growth that can 

potentially be offset through fiscal year 2010 if the Air Force invests 

as planned in these PIPs.



Figure 4: Planned Offsets to Cost Growth From Investing in and 

Implementing PIPs:



[See PDF for image]



[End of figure]





In the past, Congress has been concerned about the Air Force’s practice 

of requesting fiscal year funding for these PIPs but then using part of 

that funding for F/A-22 airframe cost increases. [Footnote 13] 

Recently, Congress directed the Air Force to submit a request if it 

plans to use PIP funds for an alternate purpose.



Modernization Cost Increases:



Modernization costs have increased dramatically in recent years. In 

fiscal year 2001, the Air Force plan was to spend a total of $166 

million for upgrades to enhance the operational capabilities of the F/

A-22. Currently, Air Force plans in 2004 call for spending almost $3 

billion through fiscal year 2009 for modernization projects. (See fig. 

4). Most of the recent increase in modernization funding is necessary 

to provide increased ground attack capability. Other modernization 

projects include upgrading avionics software, adding an improved short-

range missile capability, upgrading instrumentation for testing, and 

incorporating a classified project.



Figure 5: Planned Modernization Funding Increases, Fiscal Year 

President’s budgets for 2001-2004:



[See PDF for image]



[End of figure]



Broader Effects of Cost Increases:



The cost increases experienced by the F/A-22 program have, in part, 

forced the Air Force to reduce its planned procurement over time by 

more than half (see fig. 5). Such a decrease, in turn, has jeopardized 

the Air Force’s ability to modernize its fleet of tactical aircraft.



In late 2001, in the face of a significant cost overrun in the 

estimated cost to produce the F/A-22, the total aircraft to be produced 

was reduced. At the same time, DOD requested that Congress remove the 

production cost limit. While the congressional limit on production 

costs remains in effect, DOD transferred production funding to help 

offset $876 million in development cost growth. The net effect was 

another decrease in total aircraft to be produced--now estimated at 

276.



This reduction may have a negative effect on Air Force plans to 

modernize its tactical aircraft fleet. The F/A-22 is designed to be a 

replacement for the F-15 aircraft, but the F/A-22 quantity reductions 

that have occurred since 1991 tend to exacerbate the increasing trend 

in the average age of current Air Force fighter aircraft. In 2001, we 

reported that the average age of Air Force tactical fighters would 

continue to increase until the fleet reached an average age of 21 years 

in 2011. This is almost twice the average age goal of the Air Force. 

Aging equipment contributes significantly to increased operating and 

support costs.



Figure 6: Aircraft Quantity Reduction Since 1991:



[See PDF for image]



[End of figure]



Risks in the F/A-22 Acquisition Plan:



Despite continuing development problems and challenges, the Air Force 

plans to continue acquiring production aircraft at increasing annual 

rates. For example, the Air Force plans to acquire 20 aircraft during 

2003, rather than the maximum of 16 Congress allowed without DOD’s 

submittal of a risk assessment and certification.[Footnote 14] Since 

2001, we have reported that this is a very risky strategy because the 

Air Force runs the chance of higher production costs by acquiring 

significant quantities of aircraft before adequate testing is complete. 

Late testing could identify problems requiring costly modifications to 

achieve satisfactory performance.



As shown in figure 6, the Air Force is committed to acquiring 73 

production aircraft (26 percent) before operational and development 

testing is complete. We believe that this is an overly optimistic 

strategy given the remaining F/A-22 technical problems and the current 

status of testing. As we have noted, acquiring aircraft before 

completing adequate testing to resolve significant technical problems 

increases the risk of costly modifications later. If F/A-22 testing 

schedules slip further--as we believe is likely--even more aircraft 

will be acquired before development and operational testing is 

complete, and the risk of costly modifications will increase still 

more.



Figure 7: Number of Production Aircraft on Contract Prior to Completion 

of Operational Testing:



[See PDF for image]



[End of figure]



Conclusions:



The F/A-22 has the potential for being the most advanced air 

superiority aircraft ever to join the Air Force’s inventory--using 

several advanced technologies and capabilities. But performance 

problems, schedule delays, and cost overruns threaten the program’s 

success as well as DOD’s ability to modernize its tactical aircraft 

fleet. Moreover, uncertainties about some of the performance 

capabilities have increased the risk that the Air Force will have to 

modify a larger quantity of aircraft after they are built. For these 

reasons, our recommendations have stressed the need for the Air Force 

to (1) avail itself of all opportunities for gaining manufacturing 

efficiencies during production, (2) find ways to fund cost reduction 

plans that require initial government investment instead of using 

funding to cover cost growth in earlier aircraft lots, and (3) 

reconsider its decision to increase the annual production rate beyond 

16 until greater knowledge on any need for modifications is established 

through operational testing. Moreover, we have also recommended, in 

light of the high risk nature of the program, that Congress be informed 

about the amount of cost reduction plans identified to offset cost 

growth, the potential cost of production if cost reduction plans are 

not as effective as planned, or the quantity of aircraft that can be 

produced within the cost limit. Congress would be able to use this 

information to help exercise proper program oversight.



Mr. Chairman, that concludes my statement. I will be happy to respond 

to any questions you or other Members of the Subcommittee may have.



Contacts and Acknowledgements:



For future questions regarding this testimony, please contact Allen Li, 

(202) 512-4841. Individuals making key contributions include Marvin E. 

Bonner, Edward Browning, Cristina Chaplain, Gary Middleton, Sameena 

Nooruddin, Don M. Springman, and Ralph White.



FOOTNOTES



[1] “F/A” stands for fighter/attack aircraft. The Air Force changed the 

designation from F-22 to F/A-22 in September 2002 to reflect the 

aircraft’s air-to-surface attack capability.



[2] P.L. 105-85, section 217, Nov. 18, 1997.



[3] See U.S. General Accounting Office, Tactical Aircraft: DOD Needs to 

Better Inform Congress about Implications of Continuing F/A-22 Cost 

Growth, GAO-03-280 (Washington D.C.: Feb. 28, 2003) and Tactical 

Aircraft: DOD Should Reconsider Decision to Increase F/A-22 Production 

Rates While Development Risks Continue, GAO-03-431 (Washington, D.C.: 

Mar. 14, 2003).



[4] P.L. 105-85, section 217, Nov. 18, 1997.



[5] P.L. 107-107, section 213, Dec. 28, 2001.



[6] The cost limitation, before adjustment under the act’s provisions, 

was $43.4 billon.



[7] Supercruise is the aircraft’s ability to travel at high speeds for 

long ranges. The F/A-22’s supercruise requirement is approximately 

1,000 miles per hour.



[8] U.S. General Accounting Office, Tactical Aircraft: F-22 Delays 

Indicate Initial Production Rates Should Be Lower to Reduce Risks, 

GAO-02-298 (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 5, 2002).



[9] P.L. 105-85, section 217, Nov. 18, 1997.



[10] Based on a plan to procure 438 aircraft.



[11] The F/A-22 President’s budget for fiscal year 2004 would transfer 

$876 million in production funding to help fund estimated cost 

increases in development. As a result, the current production cost 

estimate is $42.2 billion.



[12] Production lot 1 was awarded in fiscal year 2001 and production 

lot 2 was awarded in fiscal year 2002.



[13] Report 107-298, Nov. 19, 2001.



[14] DOD justified this strategy in the December 2002 risk assessment 

and certification it submitted to Congress.