Title: Sanctions and Export Controls on Russia Description: In the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, the United States and its allies responded with wide-ranging sanctions and export controls on Russia. What impact have these actions had on Russia's economy and its war efforts and have sanctions achieved their intended results? We learn more from GAO's Nagla'a El-Hodiri. Related work: GAO-25-107079, Russia Sanctions and Export Controls: U.S. Agencies Should Establish Targets to Better Assess Effectiveness. Released: September 2025 {Music} [Nagla'a El-Hodiri:] After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. imposed numerous sanctions, and we've been using these tools more and more frequently. [Holly Hobbs:] Hi, and welcome to GAO's Watchdog Report, your source for fact based, nonpartisan news and information from the U.S. Government Accountability Office. I'm your host, Holly Hobbs. After Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States and its allies responded with wide-ranging sanctions and export controls. But what impact have these actions had on Russia's economy and its war efforts? And have sanctions achieved their intended results? We'll learn more from GAO's Nagla'a El-Hodiri, who lead work for a new report on this topic. Thanks for joining us! [Nagla'a El-Hodiri:] Thank you for having me, Holly. [Holly Hobbs:] Nagla'a, maybe we can start with what are some of the sanctions and export controls that were put on Russia? [Nagla'a El-Hodiri:] Sure. Some of the sanctions were really focused on the financial sector. So, for example, the U.S. and its allies froze almost $300 billion of Russian assets. In addition, the U.S. and its allies restricted Russia's access to global financial markets, making it harder for Russia to borrow. Besides the financial sector, the U.S. also worked with a coalition of countries to impose a price cap on Russian oil exports. Then there were some sanctions that were against or targeted at individuals who violated human rights or supported Russia's war efforts. For example, the U.S. seized assets of certain Russian oligarchs. Beyond these sanctions, the U.S. also implemented numerous export controls to try to stem the flow of technologies that were critical to Russia's war efforts. [Holly Hobbs:] You said that some of the sanctions included seizing assets from oligarchs. Is that the yachts? [Nagla'a El-Hodiri:] Yes, it is. As well as other assets and bank accounts. [Holly Hobbs:] So, sanctions and export controls could certainly hurt Russia. But what's the goal of these actions? [Nagla'a El-Hodiri:] Well, there were three major goals. The first was to have a negative impact on Russia's economy, including by decreasing revenues. The second was really to impede Russia's war efforts. And the third was to hold accountable malign actors, those who abuse human rights and those who supported Russia's war in Ukraine. [Holly Hobbs:] So they had three goals. Let's start with the first one. Do we know what the impact has been on Russia's economy? [Nagla'a El-Hodiri:] So according to our analysis, Russia's economic growth in 2022 was about 6 percentage points lower than we estimate it would have been absent the war and the subsequent sanctions. In 2023 and 2024, the economy did recover somewhat, and this was partly buoyed by revenue from oil exports, as well as by Russia's spending on its war efforts. We also looked at Russia's forecasted growth. And we found that from 2025 to 2029, in each of those years, Russia was forecasted to grow at rates that were lower than what we estimate it would have grown at, absent the war and the sanctions. [Holly Hobbs:] So you said one of the areas that the U.S. targeted was Russian oil. But you also said that oil helped buoy Russia's economy. How does that work? What's that dynamic? [Nagla'a El-Hodiri:] So after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the United States worked with a coalition of countries to impose a price cap on Russian oil exports. They chose this as to lower Russia's revenues without destabilizing global energy markets. Russia began to evade this price cap, in part by having a shadow fleet of older oil tankers with opaque ownership that were sailing under other flags, not the Russian flag. And they used this to circumvent this price cap. And we saw that in later 2023. We did step up enforcement efforts. And our analysis showed that the Russia's revenues from oil exports decreased after these enforcement efforts. Since then, the revenue from Russian oil exports has increased again in part because Russia has shifted its trading of oil away from coalition countries in the West, more towards other countries outside the coalition, such as China, India and Turkey. [Holly Hobbs:] And, the second goal was to impact Russia's war efforts. Have sanctions had an effect? [Nagla'a El-Hodiri:] Right. As we can see, Russia is continuing its war in Ukraine. The U.S. implemented export controls to prevent Russia from acquiring key technologies. So agency officials told us that while export controls may not fully stem the flow of these technologies to Russia, they do make it more expensive for Russia to acquire the technologies and take a take a longer time to do so. So, despite having controls on certain technologiesâ€"say advanced computer chips that can help with precision guided weaponsâ€"those chips are still making their ways to Russia. In large part, this can be due to diversion through third countries. And that's a big challenge for enforcing export controls. China is also assisting Russia in this regard. China has supplied Russia with about 80% of all the imported goods that are critical to Russia's war efforts. [Holly Hobbs:] The last goal was to curb human rights violations. This is something we've seen a lot on the news. Have the sanctions had any impact there? [Nagla'a El-Hodiri:] Well, the response is less clear here. The agencies have had many sanctions directed at malign actors who are abusing human rights. For example, Treasury imposed sanctions against Russians responsible for the imprisonment of a Russian citizen who spoke out against the war. And State imposed sanctions against members of the Russian judiciary that were prosecuting the individual. But agency officials told us that beyond holding like specific people accountable for their actions, these efforts can also be a mechanism to signal or message that the U.S. was standing up against human rights abuse. And that broader goal is harder to observe and measure, and takes a longer time before it has an effect. {MUSIC} [Holly Hobbs:] So Nagla'a just told us that U.S. sanctions and export controls on Russia aimed to impact its economy, its war effort, and curb human rights violations. Nagla'a, the first sanctions were put on Russia in 2022. So, it's been 2 or 3 years since then, how does the U.S. know if they are working? How are we measuring success? [Nagla'a El-Hodiri:] So the agencies did make some efforts to determine whether their activities were contributing to the broader goals. For example, State and Commerce have looked at trade data, analyzed trade patterns, to determine whether the export controls were effective. But we saw no evidence that these agencies were measuring progress of their activities against specific metrics. So, for example, a potential metric for the oil price cap could be a specific percentage decrease in revenue from oil exports. [Holly Hobbs:] And what more do we think U.S. agencies should be doing to assess the impact of sanctions and export controls on Russia? [Nagla'a El-Hodiri:] Agencies should establish specific objectives with well-defined measurable outcomes and targets. And they should use those metrics to assess the effectiveness of sanctions and export controls. And by doing so, agencies can have a better idea of what's working well and what's not. And that can help them direct their resources. [Holly Hobbs:] And last question, what's the bottom line of this report? [Nagla'a El-Hodiri:] After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. imposed numerous sanctions and export controls. And we've been using these tools more and more frequently. And as we do so, it's important that we understand how effective they are and use that information to guide future efforts. [Holly Hobbs:] That was Nagla'a El-Hodiri talking about our new report on Russian sanctions and export controls. Thanks for your time. [Nagla'a El-Hodiri:] Thank you for having me, Holly. [Holly Hobbs:] And thank you for listening to the Watchdog Report. To hear more podcasts, subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen. And make sure to leave a rating and review to let others know about the work we're doing. For more from the congressional watchdog, the U.S. Government Accountability Office, visit us at GAO.gov.