Title: Aviation Workforce--Concerns about Future Pilot and Mechanic
Shortages

Description: Widespread cancellations and delays seemed commonplace
during the last holiday travel season. But while airlines are taking
actions to address the causes of these disruptions, larger obstacles may
lie ahead, including concerns about major shortages of pilots and
airline mechanics. GAO's Heather Krause discusses.

Related GAO Work: GAO-23-105571, Aviation Workforce: Current and Future
Availability of Airline Pilots and Aircraft Mechanics

Released: May 2023

[Music]

[Heather Krause:] The strong recovery of aviation demand coming out of
the pandemic has been good for the industry, but it's also exacerbated
longstanding workforce challenges.

[Holly Hobbs:] Hi and welcome to GAO's Watchdog Report. Your source for
fact-based, nonpartisan news and information from the U.S. Government
Accountability Office. I'm your host, Holly Hobbs. Disruptions at the
airport have plagued travelers recently. Widespread cancellations and
delays seemed commonplace during the last holiday travel season. But
while airlines are taking actions to address the causes of these
disruptions, larger obstacles may lay ahead, including concerns about
major shortages of pilots and airline mechanics. To tell us more about
these concerns and how they could impact air travel is GAO's Heather
Krause, an expert on aviation industries and a director in our Physical
Infrastructure team. Thanks for joining us.

[Heather Krause:] Thank you. I'm happy to be here.

[Holly Hobbs:] So, Heather, there have been a lot of predictions that
air travel is going to take off this year, so to speak, even above
pre-pandemic levels. Are airlines ready?

[Heather Krause:] You know, it's difficult to know whether airlines are
ready to meet the air travel demands. There were a lot of highly
publicized meltdowns in 2021 and 2022. And we found that in response,
airlines cut their capacity roughly 10% as they tried to build more
resilience into their operations. And so while we have seen
cancellations down this year, demand is still really high and planes are
very full, which means that if there are some disruptions, it's going to
be hard for the airlines to recover, resolve them quickly. 

[Holly Hobbs:] What caused these disruptions? 

[Heather Krause:] You know, while staffing was certainly an issue that
wasn't the only one. There were things like outdated technology, poor
staffing models, changing consumer demand patterns, and sort of the
preparation for weather events that were also factors. You know, the
airline representatives that we spoke to in the spring of last year,
talked about a variety of actions that they're taking to rebuild their
workforces and also increase the resilience of their systems and their
networks. A lot of those actions are focused on staffing and training
issues. So things like hiring new employees, creating incentives,
increasing training capacity, reducing flights and schedules, improving
staffing models and other actions that they are taking. Those continue
to be an ongoing effort.

[Holly Hobbs:] So in this report, we're specifically looking at concerns
about shortages in pilots and mechanics. Maybe we can start with, what's
going on with pilots?

[Heather Krause:] Yeah, you know, the concerns about pilot shortages
have really been longstanding in the industry. And that's even before
the pandemic. Pilot employment dropped early in the pandemic--when the
airlines were starting to implement early retirement and sort of respond
to what was happening in the pandemic. From 2019 to 2020, pilot
employment at 22 of the airlines dropped 9% from 78,000 to 71,000. And
so they've been rapidly hiring pilots to meet that rising demand that's
been occurring since the spring of 2021. The term shortage can sometimes
be used in reference circumstances in which airlines generally have an
insufficient number of pilots to meet demand for air travel, as well as
their individual growth targets. We also talked to industry stakeholders
and they're concerned about the future pilot supply may be insufficient
to meet the industry demand. And some of those factors that they spoke
about in terms of the challenges to the pilot supply include the high
cost of pilot education, the number of training hours required to obtain
a certificate to be a pilot, and limited diversity in the current pilot
workforce. We also looked at FAA forecasts and they show that the supply
may increase over the next two decades. But that, the extent to which
that supply might meet or fall short of the industry's demand for pilots
is unknown given some uncertainties and what we know about demand.

[Holly Hobbs:] What about concerns about airline mechanics shortages?

[Heather Krause:] Similar to pilots, industry stakeholders that we
talked with are concerned about their ability to meet the demand in the
industry. You know, this workforce is approaching retirement age and
there are concerns that there are not enough new workers coming in to
replace those retiring. You know available data that we're able to see
with mechanics show a decline in employment levels. And that, coupled
with an increase in wages, may suggest that there could be a decrease in
the number of mechanics willing to work or able to work for the
airlines. Again, the range of stakeholders we spoke with about these
issues, cited some factors that might be contributing to some of these
supply concerns. And those include pay and working conditions,
competition for talent from other industry sectors--so, maintenance
workers have skills that are very attractive to industries like the
amusement park industry--and also limited awareness and sort of the
stigma associated with aviation maintenance careers.

[Holly Hobbs:] So what is the aviation industry doing to attract new
pilots and mechanics?

[Heather Krause:] There are a number of steps that the airlines and
other aviation employers are taking. Some of the ones to highlight are
offering higher pay increases, recruiting foreign pilots and developing
their own training programs and schools. You know, when we look at
mechanics, they have seen some modest increase wages in the last two
years. But the consumer price inflation might counteract some of those
more recent pay increases. Several of the regional and low cost U.S.
airlines, so things like Breeze Airways, SkyWest Airlines, Spirit
Airlines, Frontier Airlines have recruited and hired Australian pilots
to address workforce concerns. You have airlines like United and
Republic Airways launching flight schools to help directly train their
pilots and supplement their hiring pipelines. And you see something
similar with the airlines and repair stations creating pathway programs
with maintenance schools and universities to attract and retain some of
those entry level mechanics--offer them employment once they graduate,
and then advance them throughout their career.

{MUSIC}

[Holly Hobbs:] So Heather just told us that while the aviation industry
is hiring more pilots and mechanics, and there's some growth in these
numbers, it may not be enough to meet future demand for air travel. So,
Heather, what's the federal government's role in helping the aviation
industry attract workers?

[Heather Krause:] First and foremost, FAA's role is to ensure the safety
of the national airspace system. When it comes to the workforce, they
are responsible for the oversight of training and certification of those
workers. However, aviation is a critical component of the economy, so
the viability of the workforce is a federal interest. FAA has had
several efforts to enhance aviation education outreach and attract more
youth and greater diversity to aviation careers. So, for example, there
is an aviation workforce grant program that the Congress established in
the last FAA Reauthorization Act. You know in 2022, FAA awarded $10
million, and that included to 16 schools that are dedicated to pilots
and 15 schools for maintenance workers. FAA received over 300
applications in 2022 for those awards, and that was the first year of
funding, which really indicates strong demand for that program. 

[Holly Hobbs:] Heather, last question, what's the bottom line of this
report?

[Heather Krause:] The strong recovery of aviation demand coming out of
the pandemic has been good for the industry, but it's also exacerbated
longstanding workforce challenges. Addressing these challenges and
meeting those aviation workforce needs is a shared responsibility among
the aviation industry, schools, and the government.

[Holly Hobbs:] That was Heather Krause talking about GAO's recent report
on the aviation industry. Thanks for your time, Heather.

[Heather Krause:] Thank you.

[Holly Hobbs:] And thank you for listening to the Watchdog Report. To
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