From the U.S. Government Accountability Office, www.gao.gov Transcript for: NASA Human Space Exploration: Significant Investments in Figure Capabilities Required to Strengthen Management Oversight Description: NASA has plans to return American astronauts to the moon by the end of 2024. However, the success of these plans depend on the success of two upcoming test flights. GAO reviewed NASA's progress towards that first test flight, as well as, the cost of efforts and the likelihood NASA will meet its 2024 deadline. We talk with GAO's Bill Russell, an expert on NASA programs and a director in our Contracting and National Security Acquisition Team, to find out more. Related GAO Work: GAO-21-105, NASA Human Space Exploration: Significant Investments in Future Capabilities Require Strengthened Management Oversight Released: December 2020 [Intro Music] [Bill Russell:] NASA has made progress in developing some of its human space flight programs but there's a lot more that needs to be done. [Holly Hobbs:] Hi and welcome to GAO's Watchdog Report, your source for news and information from the U.S. Government Accountability Office I'm Holly Hobbs. NASA has plans to return American astronauts to the moon by the end of 2024. However, the success of NASA's plans depend on the outcomes of two upcoming test flights. In a new report released today, GAO reviewed NASA's progress towards that first test flight, as well as, the cost of efforts and the likelihood NASA will meet its 2024 deadline. Today we talk with the director of this report--GAO's Bill Russell--an expert on NASA programs and a director in our Contracting and National Security Acquisition Team. Thanks for joining us Bill! [Bill Russell:] Thanks for having me Holly. [Holly Hobbs:] So Bill, will NASA meet its 2024 goal? [Bill Russell:] It's going to be a big challenge to meet the 2024 goal. We took a look at the human space flight programs that are going to contribute to meeting that goal. That includes looking at the space launch system, the Orion crew vehicle, the exploration ground systems associated with those, which is the effort to ultimately get back to land astronauts on the moon in 2024. But before they get there, they're going to have to complete Artemis I, which is basically launching those systems without astronauts; going to the moon and back--successfully completing that; trying it again in 2023--this time with an astronaut crew; go around the moon; come back to earth; and if all that goes well, then launch the actual moon landing mission in 2024. So given that we're in the end of 2020 now a lot has to go right for the 2024 date to happen. [Holly Hobbs:] And what is the status of the two test flights? [Bill Russell:] So, Artemis I, which is the first mission, where you basically launch an un-crewed mission around the moon and back, was just delayed to November 2021. There's still some key space launch system testing that needs to happen for even the November 2021 date to occur. So, depending on NASA's ability to reach that 2021 date is obviously going to impact the next mission--Artemis II--where you're going to have a crewed flight around the moon and back. [Holly Hobbs:] Has COVID-19 added to these delays? [Bill Russell:] So far, these cost increases and schedule flips that we account for in our report do not take into account COVID-19 delays. As soon as NASA's able to discern what those are, and update its schedule and costs associated with any schedule changes--that's going to put even more pressure on NASA's ability to achieve even the first test flight date in November 2021, as well as the ultimate moon landing date in 2024. [Holly Hobbs:] And do we know how delays are impacting costs? [Bill Russell:] We do. In our report, we detail a number of cost increases for some of the key systems. For example, in the space launch system, there's been a 42.5% cost increase in their latest baseline. Those ground systems had more than a 32% cost increase, which totaled to $3 billion since the last baseline was put into place. So, that's a significant amount of cost, and there's also the associated schedule delays that go along with that. [Music:] [Holly Hobbs:] So, it sounds like NASA is making progress toward its goal of returning astronauts to the Moon by 2024, and it has some important tests ahead that will determine its success. But NASA also faces delays and challenges in meeting that deadline. Bill, NASA missions tend to be complicated and costly. In terms of meeting deadlines and cost estimates, how does this Moon mission compare to other NASA projects? [Bill Russell:] The Artemis mission is in some ways consistent with how other major NASA projects have gone, in terms of there being some schedule delays and cost increases. It is a large, complex effort. It's trying to go back to the moon, you know, after 50+ years, so it's not an easy task. There have been significant cost increases. On the whole, other major NASA programs have certainly had schedule flips and cost increases as well. [Holly Hobbs:] Bill, did we make any recommendations to help NASA as it moves forward with its test flights? [Bill Russell:] We did. We made two recommendations aimed at improving some of the transparency and oversight of the key human flight space programs. For example, we recommended that NASA establish cost and schedule baselines for some of their upcoming technology needs. For example, the space launch system is going to have a big upgrade called Block 1B, and then ultimately Block 2 upgrade that provides more thrust to a bigger, more capable system that's going to be needed for future Artemis missions. But they haven't yet set some of the cost and schedule baselines that we think are important before it finalizes some of the key designs. We also recommended to improve oversight of some of those future capabilities that NASA improve the amount of details that it includes in some of its internal reporting on the future systems. [Holly Hobbs:] And Bill, last question, what's the bottom line of this report? [Bill Russell:] The bottom line is NASA has made progress in developing some of its human space flight programs, whether that's the space launch system or the Orion crew capsule. But there's a lot more that needs to be done. There are important integration tests and other challenges that are going to really put pressure on meeting the Artemis I goals for November 2021, as well as ultimately reaching the moon in 2024. [Holly Hobbs:] That was Bill Russell talking about GAO's recent review of NASA's efforts to send astronauts back to the Moon. Thank you for your time Bill! [Bill Russell:] Thank you. [Holly Hobbs:] And thank you for listening to the Watchdog Report. To hear more podcasts, subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts. And make sure you leave a rating and review to let others know about the work we're doing. For more from the congressional watchdog, the U.S. Government Accountability Office, visit us at GAO.gov.