From the U.S. Government Accountability Office, www.gao.gov

Transcript for: Warhead Plans Could Be U.S.'s Most Expensive Nuclear
Replacement Effort

Description: Introduced in 1979, the W78 nuclear warhead is the oldest
weapon in the U.S. nuclear stockpile that has not undergone a major
update or replacement. Replacing this warhead could end up being the
most expensive warhead replacement effort since the end of the Cold War,
and could have broader implications on the Air Force and on warhead
programs. We talk to Allison Bawden--an expert on U.S. nuclear weapons
management and a director in our Natural Resources and Environment
team--about her review of Department of Defense's and the National
Nuclear Security Administration's efforts.

Related GAO Work: GAO-20-703, Nuclear Weapons: NNSA Should Further
Develop Cost, Schedule, and Risk Information for the W87-1 Warhead
Program

Released: September 2020 

[Intro Music]

[Allison Bawden:] The major driver of the program for the W87-1 is to
improve its safety. 

[Holly Hobbs:] Hi and welcome to GAO's Watchdog Report, your source for
news and information from the U.S. Government Accountability Office. I'm
Holly Hobbs. Introduced in 1979, the W78 nuclear warhead is one of the
oldest in the United States nuclear stockpile that has not undergone a
major update or replacement. Replacing this warhead could end up being
the most expensive warhead replacement effort since the Cold War and
could have broader implications on the U.S. Air Force and on warhead
programs. Today we talk to Allison Bawden, an expert on U.S. nuclear
weapons management and a director in our Natural Resources and
Environment Team. Thank you for joining us, Allison. 

[Allison Bawden:] Thank you for having me. 

[Holly Hobbs:] So Allison, can you give us a little history about the
W78 warhead? Beyond its age, why does it need to be replaced? 

[Allison Bawden:] The W78 warhead is one of two warheads that are
associated with the Air Force's intercontinental ballistic missile
fleet. And that fleet is also aging. The Air Force's Minuteman III
missile will be replaced in the 2030s, and the warhead replacement and
missile replacement schedule need to stay aligned. The W87-1 program
that replaces the W78 is being designed for the Air Force's new missile.
But in addition, a major drive of the program for the W87-1 is to
improve its safety. These weapons are transported over rural roads to
missile silos, and their current design uses a type of conventional
explosive material. The Air Force is seeking further replacement to
include what's known as an insensitive high explosive, which is less
sensitive to things like shock and impact and fire. So switching to an
insensitive high explosive will improve safety and security throughout
the warhead's manufacturing, assembly, maintenance and transport. 

[Holly Hobbs:] So what's driving the cost? What's causing this
replacement to become so expensive? 

[Allison Bawden:] Most significantly, this is the first warhead program
since the Cold War for which NNSA is planning to newly manufacture all
of the warhead's components. I talked about the high explosives, but
this also includes newly manufacturing other nuclear components and
literally thousands of non-nuclear components such as phones and cables
and electronics. In addition, NNSA and the Air Force are evaluating a
range of different technical solutions to other challenges beyond the
explosives. So, some of these are other safety and security features,
new ways to manage power and also some component manufacturing
processes. But it's important to note that NNSA's cost estimates are
preliminary, and not all of these design decisions are yet finalized.

[ Music ]

[Holly Hobbs:] So it sounds like the Department of Defense and other
agencies have long planned to replace the aging W78 warhead, which is
over 40 years old. But despite long term plans, there have been a number
of challenges as the program progresses.
So Allison, your report says that this replacement is part of a larger
effort to modernize the nation's nuclear stockpile. Are we seeing any of
these same issues across that effort? 

[Allison Bawden:] Absolutely. Replacing the W78 with the W87-1 involves
literally every part of the nuclear security enterprise and includes
reconstituting capabilities to produce materials that have been
mothballed sometimes for decades. The infrastructure to do so needs to
be replaced and recapitalized just like the warheads themselves. Perhaps
the most significant example of this capability upgrade is the nation's
capability to manufacture plutonium components known as pits. The nation
has not had this capability at more than a demonstration level since it
closed its plant in the late 80s, early 90s. Recapitalizing the entire
nuclear security enterprise is planned to cost tens of billions of
dollars more than the individual warhead modernizations themselves, and
this effort will last decades. In addition to the W87-1 program, NNSA
and the Department of Defense have additional warhead modernization
programs planned for after the W87-1. So keeping it on schedule, along
with the schedules for all of the work on the infrastructure is really
important to the overall modernization effort. 

[Holly Hobbs:] And Allison, last question, what's the bottom line of
this report? 

[Allison Bawden:] Like all weapons modernization programs, the W87-1 is
complex. But this one is even more complex because it's so tied to
modernizing the Nuclear Security Enterprise overall and to the Air
Force's replacement of its intercontinental ballistic missile system.
This is exercising the entire nuclear security enterprise in ways that
haven't been done for decades and is a really good example of trying to
change the wheel on the car while the car is moving, but also maybe
while you're repaving the highway. There's a lot going on, and there's a
lot to coordinate. 

[Holly Hobbs:] That was Allison Bawden talking about GAO's recent review
of plans to replace the W-78 nuclear warhead. Thank you for your time,
Allison. 

[Allison Bawden:] Thank you. 

[Holly Hobbs:] And thank you for listening to the Watchdog Report. To
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For more from the congressional watchdog, the U.S. Government
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[ Music ]