From the U.S. Government Accountability Office, www.gao.gov Transcript for: Earthquake Preparedness Description: Audio interview by GAO staff with Chris Currie, Director, Homeland Security and Justice Related GAO Work: GAO-16-680: Earthquakes: Additional Actions Needed to Identify and Mitigate Risks to Federal Buildings and Implement an Early Warning System Released: September 2016 [ Background Music ] [ Narrator: ] Welcome to GAO's Watchdog Report, your source for news and information from the U.S. Government Accountability Office. It's September 2016. Earthquakes pose a significant threat to people and infrastructure because they can cause catastrophic casualties, property damage, and economic disruption. A team led by Chris Currie, a director in GAO's Homeland Security and Justice team, recently reviewed local and federal efforts to assess risks, and prepare for earthquakes in the United States. Jacques Arsenault sat down with Chris to talk about what they found. [ Jacques Arsenault: ] When I hear about earthquakes, I tend to think about large, rare events, like the 1989 Bay Area quake. But, are earthquakes a threat all over the United States? [ Chris Currie: ] Well the short answer's yes. Folks tend to think "California" when they hear the word "earthquake." But there's significant risk in other parts of the country, such as the Pacific Northwest, the New Madrid Fault that runs right up the middle of the country, too. In the early 1800s, a really strong quake hit the Midwest, which was felt hundreds of miles away, and it hasn't happened since. Also, the 2011 earthquake that impacted DC, here, is evidence that these can happen anywhere. [ Jacques Arsenault: ] So then how big of a threat are we talking about? [ Chris Currie: ] So there's a lot of factors that can impact the amount of damage an earthquake causes. The obvious first factor is the size and strength of the quake. However, even in the same geographic area, damage can vary for many reasons. For example, those closer to the epicenter of a quake likely experience much stronger shaking. Also, the strength of the building and the number of earthquake mitigation actions has a huge impact. Another factor that might not be as obvious is the actual soil and geology under a building. For example, some areas of soil are such that an earthquake can actually liquefy the soil below a building, and thus cause extreme damage. [ Jacques Arsenault: ] So then what are some of the things that cities or states are doing to look at these earthquake risks and prepare? [ Chris Currie: ] Well, we looked at four cities in our review of -- probably for obvious reasons -- Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Memphis. They're all in extremely high-risk seismic areas. They're all taking various actions to mitigate against earthquakes. It's important to understand that there's a wide range of things that can be done to mitigate against quakes. So there's lower-cost options like conducting earthquake drills, or simply bolting shelves and bookcases to walls to keep them from falling and causing injuries during a quake. There's also much more expensive and laborious options, such as reinforcing building structures. Or retrofitting buildings to sway or move during shaking. So these cities were taking a variety of actions like these. [ Jacques Arsenault: ] And you also looked in particular at federal buildings and what federal agencies are doing around earthquake preparedness. What were some of the things you found there? [ Chris Currie: ] Well, the federal government's the largest owner of property and buildings in the U.S. As you can guess, it owns thousands of buildings and structures around the country in high seismic zones. In fact, we found that about 40 percent of federal buildings are located in parts of the country where very strong or extreme shaking could happen. So these can vary from military bases, to VA medical centers, to federal courthouses, and such things like that. What we focused on was DOD -- the Department of Defense -- and the General Service Administration -- really, the government's landlord -- because they're responsible for most of these buildings. What we found is that DOD and GSA haven't identified their exceptionally high-risk buildings. They also haven't prioritized seismic safety measures to mitigate against those risks. So in short, there's really no plan for how to overcome this. So we also observed in our work and our site visits, inconsistent use of earthquake mitigation measures in certain federal buildings. So here's a great example of that. In one federal building we toured, certain floors occupied by GSA may have had safety measures, such as bolting bookshelves to walls, while other floors in the same building occupied by another federal tenant were doing nothing. So what we recommend is the DOD and GSA define first what exceptionally high risk is. And then identify their high-risk buildings. And then take it a step further and develop a, you know, short and long-term plans to mitigate against that. [ Jacques Arsenault: ] So it sounds like there's not -- in either the case of DOD or GSA -- there's not a big, overall plan in place to have a look at this? [ Chris Currie: ] That's exactly right. [ Jacques Arsenault: ] Now, thinking about the preparedness angle, your team also looked at an early warning system run by the federal government, Shake Alert? How well is that working? [ Chris Currie: ] So we did. But Shake Alert -- so it's actually a partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey which is federal - USGS, and several universities on the West Coast, but also the West Coast states. So it's a really interesting federal program in there. It's quasi-federal, private, and governmental with the state governments too. So each of those provide funding, and help manage the program. It's important to understand that for, you know, some of the issues we identify. We've found that the system works well -- the science of the system works well, and could definitely have public safety benefits. The network of sensors in the West Coast states can provide early warnings that can be used by the public or others. However, what people need to understand about this is that earthquake early warnings are measured in seconds and possibly minutes. So they're not like hurricane warnings where folks have time to evacuate an area outright. What we report is that the system can provide up to 90 seconds of advanced warning in California, and as much as 5 minutes in the Pacific Northwest. And so you can imagine, this information could be used for a lot of different safety things around that part of the country. For example, a train in San Francisco that was about to enter a tunnel, if they had warning of an earthquake coming, they could stop that train before it went into a tunnel, and potentially it would collapse. So however, while the technology works, there's still a number of technical and management challenges that need to be addressed. For example, the details on how the public will be notified and educated about the warnings, still needs to be sorted out. So that's the science behind the sensors actually detect the earthquake, to where I get something on my phone that says, "shaking coming in 30 seconds," or something like that. Also, as you might imagine, given all the stakeholders that are involved, there are governance issues that need to be addressed. So we recommend that USGS really take the lead to work out all those challenges. [ Jacques Arsenault: ] So then finally, what would you say is the bottom line of this report? [ Chris Currie: ] Earthquakes are definitely one of the scarier natural disasters because it's very difficult to predict when they'll happen, where they're going to happen, and how strong they're going to be. They're also one of the harder disasters to get folks to pay attention to, since they don't happen often. However, preparing for, and mitigating against them, is really -- it's not a hopeless situation. We reported there are many actions that can be taken to better prepare ourselves in the environments we live in. I think most important, in my view, is that by assessing our greatest risks, we can then develop both short and long-term plans to better prepare ourselves and the environments we live in. [ Background Music ] [Narrator:] To learn more, visit GAO.gov and be sure to tune in to the next episode of GAO's Watchdog Report for more from the congressional watchdog, the U.S. Government Accountability Office.