GAO Federal Fiscal Risks Fiscal exposures are programs and activities that may expose the government to future spending. An Overview --- Many fiscal exposures come from these five sources of risk: DEMOGRAPHICS & HEALTH CARE [IMAGE: Group of three people.] ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS [IMAGE: Scissors and a dollar bill.] ENVIRONMENT AND DISASTERS [IMAGE: Storm cloud and tornado.] GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS [IMAGE: Government building and flagpole.] SECURITY [IMAGE: Generic shield.] --- [IMAGE: Group of three people.] DEMOGRAPHICS & HEALTH CARE Trends such as the aging population and rising health care costs drive spending for major health and retirement programs. Average Number of People Turning 65 Each Day [IMAGE: Bar chart.] 2000: 5,600 people 2005: 6,100 people 2010: 7,400 people 2015: 9,400 people 2020: 10,800 people 2025: 11,600 people 2029: 11,200 people Source: GAO analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. | Excerpted from GAO-15-246CG. --- [IMAGE: Scissors and a dollar bill.] ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS The federal government's response to the financial crisis that began in 2008 demonstrated the role of federal assistance in supporting the U.S. economy in a downturn. Overview of Recovery Act Spending by Program and Category [IMAGE: Pie chart.] All Recovery Act Funding Tax benefits: 36 percent Entitlements: 32 percent Grants: 25 percent Contracts: 5 percent Loans: 2 percent [IMAGE: Bar chart.] Grant programs by category Education: $78.7 billion Transportation: $38.5 billion Energy and Environment: $20.1 billion Infrastructure: $14.1 billion Research and Development and Science: $13.0 billion Housing: $11.0 billion Family: $5.0 billion Health: $5.0 billion Public Safety: $5.0 billion Job Training and Unemployment: $4.7 billion Other: $0.7 billion Source: GAO analysis of Recovery.gov, U.S. Treasury Federal Agency Financial and Activity Reports, and Recovery Act recipient reporting data. | Excerpted from GAO-14-219. Note: Data presented as of October 31, 2013. Medicaid is included in the entitlement category of the pie chart and not reflected in the bar chart. --- [IMAGE: Storm cloud and tornado.] ENVIRONMENT AND DISASTERS Extreme weather events and other disasters have cost hundreds of billions of dollars over the past decade. Number of Disaster Declarations [IMAGE: Line chart.] 1953: 10 1958: 5 1963: 25 1968: 19 1973: 46 1978: 26 1983: 20 1988: 17 1993: 39 1998: 61 2003: 62 2008: 68 2011: 98 Source: GAO analysis of Federal Emergency Management Agency data as issued in GAO-12-838. --- [IMAGE: Government building and flagpole.] GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS Implementation risks in federal operations may lead to inefficient or improper spending or foregone revenues. Programs with the Highest Reported Amounts of Improper Payments in Fiscal Year 2014 [IMAGE: Bar chart.] Unemployment Insurance: $5.6 billion Medicare Advantage (Part C): $12.2 billion Medicaid: $17.6 billion Earned Income Tax Credit: $17.7 billion Medicare Fee-for-Service: $45.8 billion Source: GAO summary of agency data. --- [IMAGE: Generic shield.] SECURITY A complex, uncertain national security environment can increase the costs of addressing challenges such as regional instability, weapons proliferation, and cyber attacks. Number of Cyber Incidents Reported [IMAGE: Bar chart.] 2006: 5,503 2007: 11,911 2008: 16,843 2009: 29,999 2010: 41,776 2011: 42,854 2012: 48,562 Source: GAO analysis of U.S. Computer Emergency Readiness Team data for fiscal years 2006-2014. | Excerpted from GAO-15-290. Note: Data presented are the number of incidents reported to the US-CERT during this period. --- Looking for more information? Visit GAO.GOV/fiscal_outlook --- [IMAGE: GAO logo] --- This work has been released into the public domain.