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Anticipating and Meeting Accountability Challenges in 2014 and Beyond: 

2014 JFMIP Federal Financial Management Conference: 
Washington, D.C. 
May 20, 2014: 

Gene L. Dodaro: 
Comptroller General of the United States: 
U.S. Government Accountability Office: 

GAO-14-591CG:  

Overview: 
* GAO's Strategic Plan; 
* Key trends; 
* Related GAO work. 

GAO's Planning & Performance Documents:  

[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/sp.html] 

Performance & Accountability Report; 
Performance Plan; 
Strategic Plan. 

Strategic Plan – Trends: 

* Threats Confronting U.S. National Security Interests; 
* Fiscal Sustainability and Debt Challenges; 
* Changing Dynamics of Global Interdependence and Multilateral 
Cooperation; 
* Science and Technology Trends; 
* Advances in Communications Networks and Information Technologies; 
* Shifting Roles in Governance and Government; 
* Demographic and Societal Changes. 

Trend 1: Threats Confronting U.S. National Security Interests: 

* Continuing regional and political instability (Middle East, Africa, 
South Asia); 
* Potential for further proliferation of nuclear, biological, and 
chemical weapons; 
* Evolving and growing threats in cyberspace; 
* Climate-related risks; 
* Growing fiscal pressures on national security agencies; 
* Shifting dynamics in Asia. 

Figure: Selected Current U.S. Overseas Presence and Plans in the Asia-
Pacific Region: 

[Refer to PDF for image: illustrated area map] 

South Korea: Currently about 26,500 U.S. forces; 
Japan: Currently about 51,200 U.S. forces; 
Guam: Currently about 6,000 U.S. forces; 
The Philippines: Increased expansion of rotational U.S, forces under 
discussion; 
Singapore: Plans to increase rotational U.S. presence: 
Australia: Plans to increase rotational U.S. presence to around 1,100 
U.S. forces. 

Source: GAO. 

[End of figure] 

Related GAO work: 

* Examining the implementation of U.S. programs to strengthen 
counterterrorism capacity in the Middle East and Africa. 

* Reviewing U.S. transition from a military to civilian-led presence 
in Afghanistan, including oversight of grants and contracts. 

* Analyzing initiatives to adapt and modify U.S. overseas presence and 
programs in Asia and other parts of the world. 

* Reviewing U.S. efforts and programs to secure and stabilize regions 
in conflict and the extent to which such efforts are coordinated among 
federal agencies. 

* Assessing the government's efforts to ensure the safety and security 
of diplomatic facilities and personnel. 

* Reviewing the government's efforts to identify and act on credible 
threats to homeland and border security. 

* Reviewing efforts to secure radioactive and nuclear material. 

* Evaluating efforts to ensure the reliability, security, and 
affordability of energy supply infrastructure. 

* Analyzing the funding and costs of military operations and programs 
given the fiscal pressures facing the nation. 

* Evaluating the implications of climate-related risks for U.S. 
national security agencies and their plans and programs to address 
these implications. 

[End of Trend 1] 

Trend 2: Fiscal Sustainability and Debt Challenges: 

Figure: Deficits and Debt Held by the Public Under CBO's May 2013 
Baseline: 

[Refer to PDF for image: 2 combined vertical bar and line graph] 

Fiscal year: 2012; 
Deficit: $1.087 trillion; 
Debt held by the public: $11.281 trillion. 

Fiscal year: 2013; 
Deficit: $642 billion; 
Debt held by the public: $12.036 trillion. 

Fiscal year: 2014; 
Deficit: $560 billion; 
Debt held by the public: $12.685 trillion. 

Fiscal year: 2015; 
Deficit: $378 billion; 
Debt held by the public: $13.156 trillion. 

Fiscal year: 2016; 
Deficit: $432 billion; 
Debt held by the public: $13.666 trillion. 

Fiscal year: 2017; 
Deficit: $482 billion; 
Debt held by the public: $14.223 trillion. 

Fiscal year: 2018; 
Deficit: $542 billion; 
Debt held by the public: $14.827 trillion. 

Fiscal year: 2019; 
Deficit: $648 billion; 
Debt held by the public: $15.537 trillion. 

Fiscal year: 2020; 
Deficit: $733 billion; 
Debt held by the public: $16.33 trillion. 

Fiscal year: 2021; 
Deficit: $782 billion; 
Debt held by the public: $17.168 trillion. 

Fiscal year: 2022; 
Deficit: $889 billion; 
Debt held by the public: $18.118 trillion. 

Fiscal year: 2023; 
Deficit: $895 billion; 
Debt held by the public: $19.07 trillion. 

Percentage of GDP: 

Fiscal year: 2012; 
Deficit: 6.8%; 
Debt held by the public: 70.1%. 

Fiscal year: 2013; 
Deficit: 3.9%; 
Debt held by the public: 72.5%. 

Fiscal year: 2014; 
Deficit: 3.3%; 
Debt held by the public: 73.6%. 

Fiscal year: 2015; 
Deficit: 2.1%; 
Debt held by the public: 72.1%. 

Fiscal year: 2016; 
Deficit: 2.2%; 
Debt held by the public: 70.3%. 

Fiscal year: 2017; 
Deficit: 2.3%; 
Debt held by the public: 68.8%. 

Fiscal year: 2018; 
Deficit: 2.5%; 
Debt held by the public: 68.4%. 

Fiscal year: 2019; 
Deficit: 2.9%; 
Debt held by the public: 68.6%. 

Fiscal year: 2020; 
Deficit: 3.1%; 
Debt held by the public: 69%. 

Fiscal year: 2021; 
Deficit: 3.2%; 
Debt held by the public: 69.6%. 

Fiscal year: 2022; 
Deficit: 3.5%; 
Debt held by the public: 70.4%. 

Fiscal year: 2023; 
Deficit: 3.3%; 
Debt held by the public: 71.1%. 

[End of figure] 

Figure: Debt Held by the Public under Two Fiscal Policy Simulations: 

[Refer to PDF for image: multiple line graph] 

Percentage of GDP: 

Historical high: 109% in 1946. 

Fiscal year: 2000; 
Baseline extended: 34.72%; 
Alternative: 34.72%. 

Fiscal year: 2001; 
Baseline extended: 32.46%; 
Alternative: 32.46%. 

Fiscal year: 2002; 
Baseline extended: 33.58%; 
Alternative: 33.58%. 

Fiscal year: 2003; 
Baseline extended: 35.64%; 
Alternative: 35.64%. 

Fiscal year: 2004; 
Baseline extended: 36.76%; 
Alternative: 36.76%. 

Fiscal year: 2005; 
Baseline extended: 36.9%; 
Alternative: 36.9%. 

Fiscal year: 2006; 
Baseline extended: 36.51%; 
Alternative: 36.51%. 

Fiscal year: 2007; 
Baseline extended: 36.25%; 
Alternative: 36.25%. 

Fiscal year: 2008; 
Baseline extended: 40.32%; 
Alternative: 40.32%. 

Fiscal year: 2009; 
Baseline extended: 53.52%; 
Alternative: 53.52%. 

Fiscal year: 2010; 
Baseline extended: 62.8%; 
Alternative: 62.8%. 

Fiscal year: 2011; 
Baseline extended: 67.72%; 
Alternative: 67.72%. 

Fiscal year: 2012; 
Baseline extended: 72.8%; 
Alternative: 72.8%. 

Fiscal year: 2013; 
Baseline extended: 76.1%; 
Alternative: 78.6%. 

Fiscal year: 2014; 
Baseline extended: 76.6%; 
Alternative: 82.4%. 

Fiscal year: 2015; 
Baseline extended: 73.8%; 
Alternative: 82.8%. 

Fiscal year: 2016; 
Baseline extended: 70.8%; 
Alternative: 82.8%. 

Fiscal year: 2017; 
Baseline extended: 67.9%; 
Alternative: 82.9%. 

Fiscal year: 2018; 
Baseline extended: 65.2%; 
Alternative: 83.2%. 

Fiscal year: 2019; 
Baseline extended: 63.2%; 
Alternative: 84.4%. 

Fiscal year: 2020; 
Baseline extended: 61.4%; 
Alternative: 85.9%. 

Fiscal year: 2021; 
Baseline extended: 59.8%; 
Alternative: 87.7%. 

Fiscal year: 2022; 
Baseline extended: 58.5%; 
Alternative: 89.9%. 

Fiscal year: 2023; 
Baseline extended: 57.8%; 
Alternative: 93.1%. 

Fiscal year: 2024; 
Baseline extended: 57.5%; 
Alternative: 97.4%. 

Fiscal year: 2025; 
Baseline extended: 57.8%; 
Alternative: 102.6%. 

Fiscal year: 2026; 
Baseline extended: 58.2%; 
Alternative: 108.4%. 

Fiscal year: 2027; 
Baseline extended: 59%; 
Alternative: 114.5%. 

Fiscal year: 2028; 
Baseline extended: 60%; 
Alternative: 121.2%. 

Fiscal year: 2029; 
Baseline extended: 61.2%; 
Alternative: 128.5%. 

Fiscal year: 2030; 
Baseline extended: 62.6%; 
Alternative: 136.2%. 

Fiscal year: 2031; 
Baseline extended: 64.2%; 
Alternative: 144.4%. 

Fiscal year: 2032; 
Baseline extended: 66%; 
Alternative: 152.9%. 

Fiscal year: 2033; 
Baseline extended: 67.8%; 
Alternative: 161.6%. 

Fiscal year: 2034; 
Baseline extended: 69.8%; 
Alternative: 170.5%. 

Fiscal year: 2035; 
Baseline extended: 71.9%; 
Alternative: 179.7%. 

Fiscal year: 2036; 
Baseline extended: 74.2%; 
Alternative: 189.1%. 

Fiscal year: 2037; 
Baseline extended: 76.6%; 
Alternative: 198.8%. 

Fiscal year: 2038; 
Baseline extended: 79.1%. 

Fiscal year: 2039; 
Baseline extended: 81.7%. 

Fiscal year: 2040; 
Baseline extended: 84.4%. 

Fiscal year: 2041; 
Baseline extended: 87.1%. 

Fiscal year: 2042; 
Baseline extended: 89.9%. 

Fiscal year: 2043; 
Baseline extended: 92.7%. 

Fiscal year: 2044; 
Baseline extended: 95.7%. 

Fiscal year: 2045; 
Baseline extended: 98.7%. 

Fiscal year: 2046; 
Baseline extended: 101.9%. 

Fiscal year: 2047; 
Baseline extended: 105.3%. 

Fiscal year: 2048; 
Baseline extended: 108.6%. 

Fiscal year: 2049; 
Baseline extended: 112.1%. 

Fiscal year: 2050; 
Baseline extended: 115.6%. 

Fiscal year: 2051; 
Baseline extended: 119.1%. 

Fiscal year: 2052; 
Baseline extended: 122.8%. 

Fiscal year: 2053; 
Baseline extended: 126.5%. 

Fiscal year: 2054; 
Baseline extended: 130.2%. 

Fiscal year: 2055; 
Baseline extended: 134%. 

Fiscal year: 2056; 
Baseline extended: 138%. 

Fiscal year: 2057; 
Baseline extended: 142.1%. 

Fiscal year: 2058; 
Baseline extended: 146.2%. 

Fiscal year: 2059; 
Baseline extended: 150.4%. 

Fiscal year: 2060; 
Baseline extended: 154.7%. 

Source: GAO. 

[End of figure] 

Revenues and Composition of Spending in the Alternative Simulation: 

[Refer to PDF for image: stacked vertical bar and line graph] 

Percentage of GDP: 

Fiscal year: 2010; 
Net interest: 1.4%; 
Social Security: 4.9%; 
Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, and exchange subsidies: 5.1%; 
All other spending: 12.8%; 
Revenue: 15.1%. 

Fiscal year: 2020; 
Net interest: 3.2%; 
Social Security: 5.2%; 
Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, and exchange subsidies: 6.1%; 
All other spending: 8.7%; 
Revenue: 18.4%. 

Fiscal year: 2030; 
Net interest: 5.9%; 
Social Security: 6.2%; 
Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, and exchange subsidies: 7.8%; 
All other spending: 9.5%; 
Revenue: 17.9%. 

Fiscal year: 2040; 
Net interest: 10.2%; 
Social Security: 6.3%; 
Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, and exchange subsidies: 9.3%; 
All other spending: 10.0%; 
Revenue: 17.9%. 

Source: GAO. 

[End of figure] 

State and Local Governments Face Increasing Fiscal Challenges: 

[Refer to PDF for image: line graph] 

Percent of GDP: 

Year: 2005; 
Operating Balance: 0.006%. 

Year: 2010; 
Operating Balance: -0.5%. 

Year: 2015; 
Operating Balance: -1.5%. 

Year: 2020; 
Operating Balance: -1.3%. 

Year: 2025; 
Operating Balance: -1.5%. 

Year: 2030; 
Operating Balance: -1.9%. 

Year: 2035; 
Operating Balance: -2.2%. 

Year: 2040; 
Operating Balance: -2.5%. 

Year: 2045; 
Operating Balance: -2.9%. 

Year: 2050; 
Operating Balance: -3.2%. 

Year: 2055; 
Operating Balance: -3.5%. 

Year: 2060; 
Operating Balance: -3.9%. 

Source: GAO simulations, updated April 2013. 

Note: Historical data are from BEA's National Income and Product 
Accounts. Data in 2012 are GAO estimates aligned with published data 
where available. GAO simulations are from 2013 to 2060, using many CBO 
projections and assumptions, particularly for the next 10 years. 

[End of figure] 

Related GAO work: 

* Performing long-term fiscal simulations and analyzing the drivers 
of the fiscal position of federal and state and local sectors, 
including tax policy, health, disability & retirement programs. 

* Analyzing federal debt & debt management, including the debt 
limit. 

* Improving the quality of financial and cost information. 

* Identifying and recommending solutions to reduce the risk of 
waste, fraud, and abuse and improper payments. 

* Identifying opportunities to reduce or eliminate fragmentation, 
overlap, and duplication in government programs and activities. 

* Identifying specific opportunities to reduce the tax gap. 

* Monitoring and evaluating GPRA program effectiveness. 

[End of Trend 2] 

Trend 3: The Changing Dynamics of Global Interdependence & 
Multilateral Cooperation: 

Figure: Five Year Economic Growth Forecast for Select Countries: 

[Refer to PDF for image: horizontal bar graph] 

CIVETS (Columbia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa): 
Vietnam: 6.2%; 
Indonesia: 6.1%; 
Turkey: 4.8%; 
Colombia: 4.3%; 
South Africa: 4.2%; 
Egypt: 4.1%. 

G7: 
United States: 2.5%; 
Canada: 2.3%; 
United Kingdom: 1.9%; 
France: 1.4%; 
Germany: 1.4%; 
Japan: 1.4%; 
Italy: 0.9%. 

BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China): 
China: 6.7%; 
India: 6.3%; 
Russia: 3.6%; 
Brazil: 3.1%. 

Other emerging markets: 
Nigeria: 6.8%; 
South Korea: 4%; 
Mexico: 3.7%. 

Source: GAO analysis of Economist Intelligence Unit data. 

[End of figure] 

Figure: Forecast of Current Account Balances, 2013-2018: 

[Refer to PDF for image: multiple line graph] 

Dollars in billions: 

Year: 2013; 
United States: -$451.458; 
European Union: $253.113; 
China: $224. 

Year: 2014; 
United States: -$489.182; 
European Union: $290.528; 
China: $259, 

Year: 2015; 
United States: -$524.548; 
European Union: $327.062; 
China: $317. 

Year: 2016; 
United States: -$563.502; 
European Union: $352.21; 
China: $390. 

Year: 2017; 
United States: -$605.698; 
European Union: $384.488; 
China: $463. 

Year: 2018; 
United States: -$638.939; 
European Union: $414.462; 
China: $559. 

Source: International Monetary Fund, Word Economic Outlook Database, 
October 2013. 

[End of figure] 

* Examining the implementation, progress, and efficacy of national & 
international financial regulatory reforms and efforts to create a 
more stable financial system, including work examining systemically 
important financial institutions. 

* Evaluating threats to exploit vulnerabilities across the global 
financial system, including tax evasion, corruption, fraud, cyber 
attacks on financial institutions, and money laundering. 

* Analyzing the effectiveness of U.S. government programs designed to 
protect critical technologies. 

* Assessing efforts to preserve U.S. economic and national security 
interests as the global supplier base widens. 

* Evaluating efforts to ensure a safe food supply and medical products. 

* Evaluating the effectiveness of federal programs to prevent, prepare 
for, and respond to public health emergencies. 

* Evaluate U.S. government media programs to improve the U.S. image 
abroad. 

* Assessing U.S. export promotion programs and other trade-related 
jobs creation activities. 

* Analyzing energy market regulation, competition, and information. 

* Evaluating U.S. efforts to address unfair trade practices and 
monitor and enforce the labor and environment provisions of recent 
international trade agreements. 

* Assessing federal efforts to provide development and humanitarian 
assistance, including those to enhance international food security. 

[End of Trend 3] 

Trend 4: Advances in Science and Technology:  

* Emerging technologies: 
- Nanotechnology & manufacturing; 
- 3-D printing; 
- Synthetic biology; 
- Unmanned aircraft systems; 
* Energy and natural resources nexus; 
* Science, technology, engineering and mathematics education. 

Related GAO work: 

* Performing studies and technology assessments of S&T issues, such as 
nanomanufacturing, next generation nuclear reactors, freshwater 
conservation, national and homeland defense systems, and additive 
manufacturing.  

* Enhancing the security and privacy of computer systems and networks 
supporting federal operations and critical infrastructures. 

Assessing the government's planning, implementation, and use of 
information technology, including health IT. 

Improving transparency and governance of major IT projects. 

Assessing the management and results of the federal investment in 
science and technology and the effectiveness of efforts to protect 
intellectual property.  

[End of Trend 4] 

Trend 5: Communications Networks and Information Technology: 

Figure: Growth in data created, replicated, or consumed in the United 
States: 

[Refer to PDF for image: line graph] 

Year: 2009; 
Exabytes: 310. 

Year: 2010; 
Exabytes: 512. 

Year: 2011; 
Exabytes: 699. 

Year: 2012; 
Exabytes: 898. 

Year: 2013; 
Exabytes: 1,166. 

Year: 2014; 
Exabytes: 1,542. 

Year: 2015; 
Exabytes: 1,960. 

Year: 2016; 
Exabytes: 2,491. 

Year: 2017; 
Exabytes: 3,148. 

Year: 2018; 
Exabytes: 3,998. 

Year: 2019; 
Exabytes: 5,124. 

Year: 2020; 
Exabytes: 6,617. 

Source: GAO analysis of EMC-IDC Digital Universe Study. 

[End of figure] 

Related GAO work: 

* Assessing federal efforts to promote affordable access to 
broadband Internet services. 

* Reviewing the management of government and interconnected 
public-safety networks. 

* Assessing DHS's efforts to enhance the resiliency of critical 
national assets, networks, and systems. 

* Reducing duplicative and inefficient legacy IT spending through 
data center consolidation and portfolio management. 

* Evaluating the management of telecommunications products and 
services purchased government-wide. 

[End of Trend 5] 

Trend 6: Shifting Roles in Government and Governance: 

Figure: United States Federalism in Practice: 

[Refer to PDF for image: illustration] 

Series of networked circles: 

50 States: Many state and quasi-governmental agencies. 

Nonprofit Sector: Approximately 33,000 human service NPs with federal 
contracts. 

Federal: 14 executive departments & about 200 agencies & sub-agencies. 

Many Local: 3,031 counties; 19,519 municipalities; 16,360 townships; 
12,880 school districts; 38,266 special districts[A]. 

For-profit Sector: federal and state/local contractors. 

In 2012, there were 90,056 local governments in the United States. 

[A] Examples of special districts include mosquito abatement 
districts, utility districts, water and sewer districts, transit 
authorities, etc. 

Sources: GAO graphic based on U.S. Census Bureau, Government 
Organization Summary Report 2012 (Released Sept. 26, 2013), U.S. 
Government Manual: 2009-10; and Urban Institute's National Study of 
Nonprofit-Government Contracting Survey Results (2009 Data). 

[End of figure] 

Figure: Federal Outlays for Grants to State and Local Governments and 
Medicaid (2011 Constant Dollars): 

[Refer to PDF for image: stacked line graph] 

Dollars in billions: 

Fiscal year: 1980; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $220.621; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $33.695. 

Fiscal year: 1981; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $208.126; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $36.993. 

Fiscal year: 1982; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $181.275; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $35.77. 

Fiscal year: 1983; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $182.136; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $37.403. 

Fiscal year: 1984; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $185.327; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $38.111. 

Fiscal year: 1985; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $194.798; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $41.692. 

Fiscal year: 1986; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $202.035; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $44.955. 

Fiscal year: 1987; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $189.901; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $48.062. 

Fiscal year: 1988; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $195.782; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $51.706. 

Fiscal year: 1989; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $199.224; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $56.541. 

Fiscal year: 1990; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $213.282; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $64.781. 

Fiscal year: 1991; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $234.626; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $79.768. 

Fiscal year: 1992; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $263.512; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $100.375. 

Fiscal year: 1993; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $280.326; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $109.711. 

Fiscal year: 1994; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $298.62; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $116.322. 

Fiscal year: 1995; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $312.401; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $123.674. 

Fiscal year: 1996; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $310.326; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $125.31. 

Fiscal year: 1997; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $313.229; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $127.817. 

Fiscal year: 1998; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $325.096; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $133.714. 

Fiscal year: 1999; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $349.202; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $140.838. 

Fiscal year: 2000; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $365.428; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $150.736. 

Fiscal year: 2001; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $397.799; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $161.639. 

Fiscal year: 2002; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $433.54; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $181.392. 

Fiscal year: 2003; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $467.78; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $193.599. 

Fiscal year: 2004; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $478.491; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $206.926. 

Fiscal year: 2005; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $486.753; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $206.656. 

Fiscal year: 2006; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $477.446; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $198.661. 

Fiscal year: 2007; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $474.09; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $203.636. 

Fiscal year: 2008; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $481.63; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $210.295. 

Fiscal year: 2009; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $553.684; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $258.244. 

Fiscal year: 2010; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $620.386; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $278.149. 

Fiscal year: 2011; 
Federal grant outlays to state and local governments: $606.766; 
Medicaid federal grant outlays: $274.964. 

Source: GAO analysis of OMB data. 

[End of figure] 

Related GAO work: 

* Focusing on major areas that are at high-risk, including the U.S. 
Postal Service's financial condition, funding the nation's surface 
transportation system, and mitigating gaps in weather satellite data. 

* Identifying ways to improve federal acquisition of goods & services, 
such as through strategic sourcing and enhanced competition. 

* Analyzing the extent to which agencies understand and manage risks 
associated with their large dependence on contractor-provided services. 

* Assessing the government's strategy for developing and maintaining a 
properly-sized workforce and closing mission-critical skills gaps. 

* Reviewing government's ability to manage for results, including 
whether agencies have a cross-cutting “whole of government” 
perspective. 

* Evaluating federal agency collaboration: across federal agencies, 
across levels of government, and across sectors. 

* Assessing government's capacity to respond to governance challenges, 
including integration of risk management and risk identification into 
strategic and program planning. 

[End of Trend 6] 

Trend 7: Demographic and Societal Changes Confronting Young and Old: 
 
Figure: Large Numbers of Baby Boomers Eligible to Retire in Next 5 
Years: 

[Refer to PDF for image: vertical bar graph] 

Year: 2000: 5,500. 

Year: 2001: 5,500. 

Year: 2002: 5,500. 

Year: 2003: 5,800. 

Year: 2004: 5,800. 

Year: 2005: 6,000. 

Year: 2006: 6,200. 

Year: 2007: 6,700. 

Year: 2008: 7,200. 

Year: 2009: 7,200. 

Year: 2010: 7,200. 

Baby boomers begin turning 65. 

Year: 2011: 7,600. 

Year: 2012: 9,100. 

Year: 2013: 9,200. 

Year: 2014: 9,100. 

Year: 2015: 9,400. 

Year: 2016: 9,400. 

Year: 2017: 9,700. 

Year: 2018: 10,000. 

Year: 2019: 10,200. 

Year: 2020: 10,700. 

Year: 2021: 10,700. 

Year: 2022: 11,000. 

Year: 2023: 11,200. 

Year: 2024: 11,200. 

Year: 2025: 11,600. 

Year: 2026: 11,400. 

Year: 2027: 11,400. 

Year: 2028: 11,300. 

Year: 2029: 11,400. 

Source: GAO analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.	 

[End of figure] 

Figure: Mean Household Incomes, by Quintiles and Top 5 Percent: 

[Refer to PDF for image: multiple line graph] 

Year: 1970; 
Top 5 percent: $172,030; 
Highest quintile: $112,080; 
Fourth quintile: $63,310; 
Third quintile: $44,914; 
Second quintile: $27,892; 
Lowest quintile: $10,297. 

Year: 1975; 
Top 5 percent: $173,489; 
Highest quintile: $114,324; 
Fourth quintile: $64,752; 
Third quintile: $44,562; 
Second quintile: $27,161; 
Lowest quintile: $11,057. 

Year: 1980; 
Top 5 percent: $180,571; 
Highest quintile: $120,834; 
Fourth quintile: $67,770; 
Third quintile: $46,000; 
Second quintile: $27,877; 
Lowest quintile: $11,201. 

Year: 1985; 
Top 5 percent: $204,029; 
Highest quintile: $132,266; 
Fourth quintile: $70,808; 
Third quintile: $47,073; 
Second quintile: $28,360; 
Lowest quintile: $11,191. 

Year: 1990; 
Top 5 percent: $231,470; 
Highest quintile: $145,360; 
Fourth quintile: $74,903; 
Third quintile: $49,680; 
Second quintile: $30,077; 
Lowest quintile: $11,954. 

Year: 1995; 
Top 5 percent: $276,708; 
Highest quintile: $160,330; 
Fourth quintile: $76,829; 
Third quintile: $49,979; 
Second quintile: $29,890; 
Lowest quintile: $12,229. 

Year: 2000; 
Top 5 percent: $329,647; 
Highest quintile: $185,810; 
Fourth quintile: $85,746; 
Third quintile: $55,158; 
Second quintile: $33,123; 
Lowest quintile: $13,266. 

Year: 2005; 
Top 5 percent: $323,912; 
Highest quintile: $183,852; 
Fourth quintile: $83,900; 
Third quintile: $53,342; 
Second quintile: $31,517; 
Lowest quintile: $12,275. 

Year: 2010; 
Top 5 percent: $296,260; 
Highest quintile: $174,734; 
Fourth quintile: $81,365; 
Third quintile: $50,718; 
Second quintile: $29,432; 
Lowest quintile: $11,341. 

Year: 2011; 
Top 5 percent: $311,444; 
Highest quintile: $178,020; 
Fourth quintile: $80,080; 
Third quintile: $49,842; 
Second quintile: $29,204; 
Lowest quintile: $11,239. 

Source: GAO analysis of U.S. Census data (Current Population Survey, 
1970 to 2011 Annual Social and Economic Supplements). 

[End of figure] 

* Supporting health care financing and reform efforts through analyses 
of Medicare, Medicaid, and other health programs. 

* Evaluating efforts to implement the Patient Protection and 
Affordable Care Act. 

* Assess the policy and administrative challenges to providing Social 
Security and other benefits for older adults in retirement. 

* Identify ways to improve programs that facilitate job opportunities 
and skills for workers, including veterans. 

* Assess policy and administrative challenges to improving school 
readiness and K-12 education, and greater access, affordability, and 
completion of postsecondary education. 

* Evaluating efforts to assist communities with combating crime and to 
manage a growing federal prison population. 

[End of Trend 7] 

[End of section] 

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