Sensitivity to Changes in Interest Rate "Fiscal Year" "Baseline, with -1 percentage point" Baseline "Baseline, with +1 percentage point" "Alternative, with -1 percentage point" Alternative "Alternative, with +1 percentage point" 2017 76.5% 76.5% 76.5% 76.5% 76.5% 76.5% 2018 77.8% 77.8% 77.8% 78.0% 78.0% 78.0% 2019 78.3% 78.3% 78.3% 78.7% 78.7% 78.7% 2020 79.4% 79.6% 79.7% 80.1% 80.3% 80.4% 2021 80.8% 81.2% 81.6% 81.8% 82.2% 82.6% 2022 82.6% 83.2% 83.9% 83.9% 84.6% 85.3% 2023 83.9% 85.0% 86.1% 85.7% 86.8% 87.9% 2024 84.7% 86.2% 87.8% 86.9% 88.5% 90.1% 2025 85.6% 87.7% 89.8% 88.3% 90.4% 92.6% 2026 86.2% 89.0% 91.8% 89.8% 92.6% 95.5% 2027 86.5% 90.0% 93.6% 91.4% 95.0% 98.7% 2028 87.2% 91.5% 96.1% 93.4% 97.9% 102.5% 2029 87.5% 92.7% 98.2% 94.9% 100.3% 106.0% 2030 87.6% 93.6% 100.1% 96.3% 102.6% 109.4% 2031 87.9% 94.8% 102.2% 98.1% 105.4% 113.2% 2032 88.4% 96.2% 104.5% 100.1% 108.3% 117.1% 2033 89.1% 97.6% 106.9% 102.3% 111.4% 121.3% 2034 89.8% 99.1% 109.3% 104.8% 114.8% 125.8% 2035 90.6% 100.8% 112.0% 107.6% 118.5% 130.7% 2036 91.6% 102.5% 114.8% 110.7% 122.6% 135.9% 2037 92.6% 104.4% 117.7% 114.1% 127.0% 141.5% 2038 93.7% 106.2% 120.6% 117.7% 131.6% 147.5% 2039 94.9% 108.3% 123.7% 121.6% 136.6% 153.8% 2040 96.1% 110.3% 126.9% 125.8% 141.9% 160.5% 2041 97.3% 112.4% 130.1% 130.0% 147.2% 167.2% 2042 98.5% 114.5% 133.4% 134.1% 152.5% 174.1% 2043 99.9% 116.7% 136.8% 138.4% 158.0% 181.2% 2044 101.1% 118.9% 140.2% 142.6% 163.4% 188.2% 2045 102.4% 121.1% 143.6% 146.8% 168.9% 195.4% 2046 103.9% 123.4% 147.3% 151.2% 174.6% 202.8% 2047 105.3% 125.8% 151.0% 155.6% 180.4% 210.5% 2048 106.7% 128.1% 154.7% 159.9% 186.2% 218.1% 2049 108.2% 130.6% 158.5% 164.4% 192.1% 226.1% 2050 109.7% 133.1% 162.5% 168.9% 198.1% 234.2% 2051 111.2% 135.6% 166.5% 173.4% 204.2% 242.4% 2052 112.8% 138.1% 170.5% 177.9% 210.2% 250.7% 2053 114.3% 140.6% 174.6% 182.5% 216.4% 259.1% 2054 115.8% 143.2% 178.7% 187.0% 222.6% 267.7% 2055 117.4% 145.8% 182.9% 191.5% 228.8% 276.4% 2056 118.9% 148.4% 187.2% 196.1% 235.1% 285.2% 2057 120.5% 151.0% 191.5% 200.7% 241.5% 294.2% 2058 122.1% 153.7% 195.9% 205.3% 247.9% 303.3% 2059 123.7% 156.4% 200.4% 209.9% 254.4% 312.5% 2060 125.4% 159.2% 204.9% 214.6% 260.9% 321.9% 2061 127.1% 162.1% 209.7% 219.4% 267.7% 331.7% 2062 128.9% 165.0% 214.6% 224.3% 274.7% 341.7% 2063 130.8% 168.0% 219.6% 229.3% 281.7% 351.9% 2064 132.6% 171.1% 224.7% 234.2% 288.8% 362.2% 2065 134.5% 174.1% 229.8% 239.2% 295.9% 372.7% 2066 136.4% 177.3% 235.0% 244.3% 303.2% 383.4% 2067 138.3% 180.4% 240.4% 249.4% 310.5% 394.3% 2068 140.2% 183.6% 245.8% 254.5% 317.9% 405.3% 2069 142.2% 186.9% 251.3% 259.6% 325.4% 416.5% 2070 144.1% 190.0% 256.7% 264.6% 332.7% 427.6% 2071 146.0% 193.2% 262.1% 269.5% 340.0% 438.8% 2072 147.9% 196.3% 267.6% 274.5% 347.4% 450.1% 2073 149.8% 199.5% 273.1% 279.5% 354.8% 461.6% 2074 151.7% 202.8% 278.8% 284.5% 362.3% 473.2% 2075 153.7% 206.0% 284.5% 289.6% 369.9% 485.1% 2076 155.6% 209.3% 290.3% 294.7% 377.5% 497.0% 2077 157.5% 212.6% 296.2% 299.7% 385.2% 509.2% 2078 159.5% 215.9% 302.1% 304.8% 392.9% 521.4% 2079 161.4% 219.2% 308.1% 309.9% 400.7% 533.8% 2080 163.3% 222.5% 314.1% 314.9% 408.4% 546.4% 2081 165.2% 225.8% 320.1% 320.0% 416.2% 559.0% 2082 167.0% 229.0% 326.2% 325.0% 424.1% 571.9% 2083 168.9% 232.3% 332.4% 330.0% 431.9% 584.8% 2084 170.7% 235.6% 338.6% 335.0% 439.8% 597.9% 2085 172.5% 238.8% 344.8% 339.9% 447.7% 611.1% 2086 174.3% 242.1% 351.1% 344.9% 455.6% 624.4% 2087 176.0% 245.4% 357.4% 349.8% 463.6% 637.9% 2088 177.8% 248.6% 363.8% 354.8% 471.6% 651.6% 2089 179.6% 251.9% 370.2% 359.7% 479.6% 665.4% 2090 181.3% 255.2% 376.8% 364.7% 487.7% 679.4% 2091 183.1% 258.5% 383.3% 369.6% 495.8% 693.5% 2092 185.0% 262.0% 390.3% 374.9% 504.4% 708.3% Source: GAO. Notes: For each factor except for excess health care cost growth, GAO gradually transitions to the sensitivity test assumption beginning in 2019. For excess health care cost growth, GAO transitions to the sensitivity test assumption after 2029. Excess health care cost growth and interest rates are increased and decreased by 1 percent over the long term in each of the simulations. Discretionary spending and revenues are increased and decreased by 5 percent over the long term in each of the simulations. URL: https://www.gao.gov/americas_fiscal_future?t=fiscal_forecast | TXT Last Updated: 04/05/2019