We ran both of our simulations by making assumptions about key factors, such as health care cost growth and interest rates. We determined that changes in these factors change the timing and pace of debt growth. However, under all of these analyses, the federal fiscal path continues to be unsustainable.

Source: GAO.
Notes: For each factor except for excess health care cost growth, GAO gradually transitions to the sensitivity test assumption beginning in 2019. For excess health care cost growth, GAO transitions to the sensitivity test assumption beginning in 2027. Excess health care cost growth and interest rates are increased and decreased by 1 percent over the long term in each of the simulations. Discretionary spending and revenues are increased and decreased by 5 percent over the long term in each of the simulations.