Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO examined the Department of Agriculture's (USDA) long-term commodity forecasts used in the President's budget process, focusing on the: (1) accuracy of those long-term supply and utilization forecasts, referred to as baselines; and (2) effect that forecast inaccuracies could have on outlay estimates in the President's January 1990 budget submission.

GAO found that: (1) USDA baseline forecasts, particularly those made 3 to 5 years in advance, exhibited both large total error rates and consistent bias error components; (2) weather, macroeconomic factors, and program and policy assumptions contributed to baseline forecast inaccuracies; (3) USDA forecasts for the first 2 years tended to be more accurate than GAO benchmarks, but GAO benchmarks for the third through fifth years showed less bias error than the USDA forecasts; and (4) if the bias error exhibited in long-term forecasts for crop years 1981 through 1988 continued, and if the 1985 farm bill provisions had been extended, costs for the commodity programs could have been $19.5 billion higher than estimated in the President's January 1990 budget submission.

Status Legend:

Review Pending-GAO has not yet assessed implementation status.

Open-Actions to satisfy the intent of the recommendation have not been taken or are being planned, or actions that partially satisfy the intent of the recommendation have been taken.

Closed-implemented-Actions that satisfy the intent of the recommendation have been taken.

Closed-not implemented-While the intent of the recommendation has not been satisfied, time or circumstances have rendered the recommendation invalid.

• Review Pending
• Open
• Closed - implemented
• Closed - not implemented

Recommendation for Executive Action

Recommendation: The Secretary of Agriculture should specifically direct the World Agricultural Outlook Board to measure and report forecast accuracy of 5-year baselines, as well as develop and report on benchmark forecasts.

Agency Affected: Department of Agriculture

Status: Closed - Implemented

Comments: USDA has calculated some measures of forecast accuracy and compared its forecasts with benchmark alternatives. Additional results are expected by the end of 1993.