Bottom-Up Review:

Analysis of Key DOD Assumptions

NSIAD-95-56: Published: Jan 31, 1995. Publicly Released: Jan 31, 1995.

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GAO reviewed the key assumptions the Department of Defense (DOD) has made during its bottom-up review to determine whether they reasonably support the execution of a two-conflict strategy.

GAO found that: (1) the strategy of fighting and winning two nearly simultaneous conflicts will require a significant change in military planning; (2) DOD has not fully analyzed key bottom-up review assumptions about the ability of forces to redeploy from other operations to regional conflicts or between conflicts, availability of strategic lift and support forces, or the deployability of Army National Guard combat brigades; (3) war-fighting command officials believe that the DOD plan for responding to two simultaneous major regional conflicts is questionable; (4) official estimates of the amount of warning time between the onset of each conflict, mix of combat forces needed to respond to each conflict, and timing of force deployments differ significantly from DOD estimates; (5) the military commands believe that the DOD scenario may not reflect the most effective deployment of U.S. forces and they are examining options they believe may maximize the use of U.S. capabilities; and (6) until DOD fully analyzes its bottom-up review assumptions and considers the war fighting commands' options, it will not be able to determine force size and mix, the supporting capabilities and funding needed for the two-conflict strategy, or if the strategy should be changed.

Recommendations for Executive Action

  1. Status: Closed - Not Implemented

    Comments: DOD issued the report which was the subject of the recommendation on July 21, 1995.

    Recommendation: As part of the congressionally mandated examination of the bottom-up review, the Secretary of Defense should thoroughly examine the assumptions related to the redeployment of forces from other operations to major regional conflicts, availability of strategic mobility assets and Army support forces, deployability of Army National Guard enhanced brigades, and planned enhancements to strategic mobility and U.S. firepower.

    Agency Affected: Department of Defense

  2. Status: Closed - Not Implemented

    Comments: DOD issued the report which was the subject of the recommendation on July 21, 1995. GAO is in the process of analyzing this DOD report at the request of the House National Security Committee.

    Recommendation: As part of the congressionally mandated examination of the bottom-up review, the Secretary of Defense should thoroughly consider the options being examined by the war-fighting commands.

    Agency Affected: Department of Defense

 

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