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Consumer Price Index: Impact of Commodity Analysts' Decisionmaking Needs to Be Assessed

GGD-99-84 Published: Jun 15, 1999. Publicly Released: Jun 15, 1999.
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Highlights

Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO reviewed the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) decisions to substitute one product for another in its computation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), focusing on: (1) how commodity analysts decide whether to make adjustments to the CPI; (2) the adjustment methods they use; and (3) how supervisors of commodity analysts review the analysts' decisions.

Recommendations

Recommendations for Executive Action

Agency Affected Recommendation Status
Bureau of Labor Statistics To help ensure that the CPI is protected from potential effects of errors or inconsistencies resulting from commodity analysts' substitution decisionmaking, the Commissioner of BLS should evaluate, on a periodic basis, the degree of consistency and accuracy in analysts' substitution determinations and the resulting effects on the CPI.
Closed – Implemented
Following the issuance of GAO's report, BLS formed a task team to pilot and test options for meeting GAO's recommendation. In December 2000, this task team recommended that BLS develop written guidelines to assist commodity analysts' decision-making for certain groups of items in the CPI. In addition, the team made recommendations for periodic supervisory review. These recommendations were developed by a second task team that refined and piloted additional options. In April 2002, the second task team recommended that standard written documentation be developed for all the groups of items in the CPI, that the documentation be updated regularly, and that it be used by commodity analysts' in their decision-making. Furthermore, the team's report called for monthly supervisory review of the commodity analysts' decisions. GAO followed up in June 2003, and agreed with BLS to keep the recommendation open for another year. In July 2004, BLS reported that written documentation had been developed for 273 of its items and that it planned to develop documentation for the remaining 8 in the near future. Furthermore, a process for the monthly review of commodity analysts' decisions had been in place for 13 months, and had been reported on. Based on the fact that BLS had developed documentation for almost all its commodities, and was practising monthly supervisory review, we decided to close this recommendation as implemented.

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Topics

Econometric modelingEconomic analysisInternal controlsPrice indexesPrices and pricingStatistical dataStatistical methodsAgricultural commoditiesConsumer price indexCommodities