Nuclear Weapons: NNSA Needs to Refine and More Effectively Manage Its New Approach for Assessing and Certifying Nuclear Weapons
GAO-06-261
Published: Feb 03, 2006. Publicly Released: Feb 03, 2006.
Skip to Highlights
Highlights
In 1992, the United States began a unilateral moratorium on the testing of nuclear weapons. To compensate for the lack of testing, the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) developed the Stockpile Stewardship Program to assess and certify the safety and reliability of the nation's nuclear stockpile without nuclear testing. In 2001, NNSA's weapons laboratories began developing what is intended to be a common framework for a new methodology for assessing and certifying the safety and reliability of the nuclear stockpile without nuclear testing. GAO was asked to evaluate (1) the new methodology NNSA is developing and (2) NNSA's management of the implementation of this new methodology.
Recommendations
Recommendations for Executive Action
| Agency Affected | Recommendation | Status |
|---|---|---|
| National Nuclear Security Administration | 1. To ensure that the weapons laboratories will have the proper tools in place to support the continued assessment of the existing stockpile or the certification of redesigned nuclear components under the RRW program, the Administrator of NNSA should require the three weapons laboratories to formally document an agreed upon, technical description of the QMU methodology that clearly recognizes and reconciles any methodological differences. |
Closed – Implemented
In addition to GAO, the National Academy of Sciences and the JASONs have viewed this recommendation as critical. The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has been in the process of updating its Tri-Lab "quantification of margins and uncertainties" (QMU) policy as a way to respond to this recommendation. In 2009, the National Academy of Engineering reported that LANL and LLNL had made substantial progress in this area.
|
| National Nuclear Security Administration | 2. To ensure that the weapons laboratories will have the proper tools in place to support the continued assessment of the existing stockpile or the certification of redesigned nuclear components under the RRW program, the Administrator of NNSA should establish a formal requirement for periodic collaboration between the three weapons laboratories to increase their mutual understanding of the development and implementation of QMU. |
Closed – Implemented
National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) and its National Labs have taken a number of actions that positively respond to GAO's recommendation for enhanced collaboration on "quantification of margins and uncertainties" (QMU). Actions include annual strategic planning meetings with the labs where QMU is discussed; annual site visits to the labs where QMU is covered; the annual assessment process where the labs exhaustively examine the safety and reliability of the stockpile using, in part, QMU methodologies; formal meetings between the labs and DOE's Office of Science; periodic reviews with STRATCOM; and major formal reviews by the National Academy of Sciences and the JASONs which facilitated better collaboration between the three major weapons laboratories.
|
| National Nuclear Security Administration | 3. To ensure that NNSA can more effectively manage the development and implementation of QMU, the Administrator of NNSA should develop an integrated plan for implementing QMU that contains (1) clear, consistent, and realistic milestones for the development and implementation of QMU across the weapons complex and (2) formal requirements for certifying the completion of these milestones. |
Closed – Implemented
National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has taken two actions that effectively implement this recommendation. First, the Fiscal Years 2010-2014 Stockpile Stewardship Plan lists significant "quantification of margins and uncertainties" (QMU)-related goals within the the Predictive Capability Framework(PCF). The PCF and specific QMU activities provides a roadmap that identifies long-term stockpile goals requiring tight integration between the Science, Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC), Inertial Confinement Fusion Ignition and High Yield, and Engineering Campaigns. Second, NNSA has issued a new Tri-lab QMU policy that establishes common definitions
|
| National Nuclear Security Administration | 4. To ensure that NNSA can more effectively manage the development and implementation of QMU, the Administrator of NNSA should establish a formal requirement for conducting annual, technical reviews of the scientific research conducted by the weapons laboratories that supports the development and implementation of QMU. |
Closed – Implemented
National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has implemented this recommendation by conducting a number of important periodic "quantification of margins and uncertainties" (QMU) reviews, notably a major National Academy of Sciences review in 2007, a US Strategic Command review in 2008, a review by the JASONs in 2009, and annual reviews and collaboration between NNSA, its three national weapons labs, and DOE's DOE's Office of Science.
|
| National Nuclear Security Administration | 5. To ensure that NNSA can more effectively manage the development and implementation of QMU, the Administrator of NNSA should revise the performance evaluation plans for the three weapons laboratories so that they contain annual performance targets that can be measured and linked to specific milestones related to QMU. |
Closed – Implemented
National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has introduced a number of features in the recent performance evaluation plans (PEPs) for Sandia, Livermore, and Los Alamos National Labs that allow "quantification of margins and uncertainties" (QMU) to be measured and linked to specific QMU milestones (Livermore) or linked to broader milestones such as the predictive capability framework, boost phase initiative, and advanced certification in which QMU plays a major analytical role (Los Alamos, Sandia). In addition, NNSA has revised the Office of Management and Budget PART measure that is related to QMU, which allows QMU to be more closely tracked.
|
Full Report
Office of Public Affairs
Topics
Evaluation methodsLaboratoriesNuclear weaponsPerformance measuresProgram evaluationProgram managementResearch and developmentResearch programsSafety regulationSafety standardsWeapons research and development