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Testimony:
Before the Subcommittee on Energy and Environment, Committee on Energy
and Commerce, House of Representatives:
United States Government Accountability Office:
GAO:
For Release on Delivery:
Expected at 9:30 a.m. EDT:
Wednesday, March 25, 2009:
Climate Change:
Observations on Federal Efforts to Adapt to a Changing Climate:
Statement of John Stephenson, Director:
Natural Resources & Environment:
GAO-09-534T:
GAO Highlights:
Highlights of GAO-09-534T, a testimony before the Subcommittee on
Energy and Environment, Committee on Energy and Commerce, House of
Representatives.
Why GAO Did This Study:
Changes in the climate attributable to increased concentrations of
greenhouse gases may have significant environmental and economic
impacts in the United States. For example, climate change could
threaten coastal areas with rising sea levels, alter agricultural
productivity, and increase the intensity and frequency of floods and
storms.
Federal, state, and local agencies are tasked with a wide array of
responsibilities that will be affected by a changing climate, such as
managing natural resources. Furthermore, climate change could increase
the cost of federal programs, such as crop and flood insurance, and
place new stresses on infrastructure.
Greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere will continue altering the
climate system into the future regardless of emissions control efforts.
Therefore, adaptation—defined as adjustments to natural or human
systems in response to actual or expected climate change—is an
important part of the response to climate change.
Today’s testimony summarizes GAO’s prior and ongoing work examining (1)
actions that federal, state, local, and international authorities are
taking to adapt to a changing climate, (2) the challenges that federal,
state, and local officials face in their efforts to adapt, and (3)
actions that the Congress and federal agencies could take to help
address these challenges.
What GAO Found:
Based on preliminary observations from GAO’s ongoing adaptation work
for the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming,
certain federal, state, local, and international government authorities
are beginning to consider and implement climate change adaptation
measures. Some federal programs are already helping officials make
decisions in response to a changing climate. For example, the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Regional Integrated Sciences
and Assessments (RISA) program supports climate change research to meet
the adaptation-related information needs of decision makers and
planners at the regional level. In addition, certain state, local, and
international governments are developing and implementing climate
change adaptation plans. For example, GAO’s recent site visit to
Maryland examined the state’s comprehensive strategy for reducing
vulnerability to climate change focused on sea level rise and coastal
storms. As part of ongoing work for the Select Committee, GAO plans to
conduct four additional site visits to learn from international,
federal, and local adaptation efforts.
Several of GAO’s recent reports on climate change examined a number of
challenges faced by government officials in their efforts to adapt.
First, climate change is one of many priorities competing for attention
and resources. Second, a lack of guidance can constrain the ability of
officials to consider climate change in management and planning
decisions. Third, insufficient site-specific data, including a lack of
local projections of expected changes, can reduce the ability of
officials to manage the effects of climate change on the resources they
oversee. Fourth, officials are struggling to make decisions based on
future climate scenarios that may not reflect past conditions. Our
ongoing work seeks to identify other challenges warranting the
attention of policymakers.
Some of GAO’s recent climate change-related reports offer clues on the
types of actions federal agencies and the Congress could take to assist
states and communities in their efforts to adapt. A recent GAO report
on federal land management, for example, recommended that certain
agencies develop guidance advising managers how to address the effects
of climate change on the resources they manage. Furthermore, a recent
GAO report on the economics of climate change identified actions the
Congress and federal agencies could take, such as reforming insurance
subsidy programs in areas vulnerable to hurricanes or flooding. GAO’s
current effort for the Select Committee, which focuses more directly on
adaptation, will obtain information and perspectives from diverse
groups of knowledgeable federal, state, and local officials, and in
particular will seek to learn from the experience of practitioners on
the front lines working to adapt to a changing climate. This work will
be completed by late 2009.
View [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-534T] or key
components. For more information, contact John Stephenson, (202) 512-
3841, stephensonj@gao.gov.
[End of section]
Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee:
I am pleased to be here today to provide observations on federal
efforts to adapt to a changing climate. Changes in the earth's climate
attributable to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases may have
significant environmental and economic impacts in the United States and
internationally.[Footnote 1] Among other potential impacts, experts
agree that climate change could threaten coastal areas with rising sea
levels, alter agricultural productivity, and increase the intensity and
frequency of floods and tropical storms. Federal, state, and local
agencies are tasked with a wide array of responsibilities, such as
managing natural resources, that will be affected by a changing
climate. Furthermore, climate change has implications for the fiscal
health of the federal government, affecting federal crop and flood
insurance programs, and placing new stresses on infrastructure. The
effects of increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
and temperature on ecosystems and economic growth are expected to vary
across regions, countries, and economic sectors (see table 1).
Table 1: Potential Impacts of Climate Change by Sector:
Sector: Agriculture, forestry, and ecosystems;
Major projected impacts:
Increased yields in colder environments;
Decreased yields in warmer environments;
Increased insect outbreaks;
Increased danger of wildfires;
Damage to crops;
Waterlogging of soils;
Land degradation;
Increased livestock deaths;
Uprooting of trees;
Damage to coral reefs;
Salinization of irrigation water, estuaries, and freshwater systems.
Sector: Water resources;
Major projected impacts:
Effects on some water resources, such as increased salinization of
groundwater and decreased availability of freshwater for humans and
ecosystems;
Increased water demand;
Water quality problems;
Adverse effects on quality of surface and groundwater;
More widespread water scarcity;
Power outages causing disruption of public water supply;
Decreased freshwater availability due to saltwater intrusion.
Sector: Human health;
Major projected impacts:
Reduced human mortality from decreased cold exposure;
Increased risk of heat-related mortality;
Increased risk of deaths, injuries, and infectious respiratory and skin
diseases;
Increased risk of food and water shortage;
Increased risk of malnutrition;
Increased risk of water-and food-borne diseases;
Increased risk of deaths and injuries by drowning and floods.
Sector: Industry, settlement, and society;
Major projected impacts:
Reduced energy demand for heating;
Increased energy demand for cooling;
Declining air quality in cities;
Reduced disruption to transport due to snow, ice;
Disruption of settlements, commerce, transport, and societies due to
flooding;
Pressures on urban and rural infrastructures;
Water shortages for settlements, industry, and societies;
Reduced hydropower generation potential;
Potential for population migration;
Disruption by flood and high winds;
Withdrawal of risk coverage in vulnerable areas by private insurers;
Costs of coastal protection versus costs of land use relocation;
Potential for movement of populations and infrastructure.
Source: IPCC, Working Group III, AR4, Summary for Policymakers.
[End of table]
Proposed responses to climate change include reducing greenhouse gas
emissions through regulation, the promotion of low-emissions
technologies, and adapting to the possible impacts by planning and
improving protective infrastructure. Thus far, government attention and
resources have been focused on emissions reductions options, climate
science research, and technology investment. In recent years, however,
climate change adaptation--adjustments to natural or human systems in
response to actual or expected climate change--has begun to receive
more attention because the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere
are expected to continue altering the climate system into the future
regardless of efforts to control emissions.
Policy makers are increasingly viewing adaptation as a risk-management
strategy to protect vulnerable sectors and communities that might be
affected by changes in the climate. It may be costly to raise river or
coastal dikes to protect communities and resources from sea level rise,
build higher bridges, or improve storm water systems. But there is a
growing recognition, in the United States and elsewhere, that the cost
of inaction could be greater.
My testimony today addresses (1) what actions federal, state, local,
and international authorities are taking to adapt to a changing
climate, (2) the challenges that federal, state, and local officials
face in their efforts to adapt, and (3) actions that the Congress and
federal agencies could take to help address these challenges. The
information in this testimony is based largely on prior GAO work,
including recent reports on climate change on federal lands, federal
flood and crop insurance programs, and climate change
economics.[Footnote 2] In addition, certain information in this
testimony was gathered through interviews of knowledgeable stakeholders
and review of existing adaptation reports as part of our ongoing study
of climate change adaptation for the Select Committee on Energy
Independence and Global Warming (Select Committee). We conducted our
work in accordance with GAO's Quality Assurance Framework, which
requires that we plan and perform each engagement to obtain sufficient
and appropriate evidence to meet our stated objectives and to discuss
any limitations in our work. We believe that the information and data
obtained, and the analyses conducted, provided a reasonable basis for
the findings and conclusions in these reports.
Federal, State, Local, and International Efforts to Adapt to a Changing
Climate:
Based on preliminary observations from our ongoing adaptation work for
the Select Committee, certain federal, state, local, and international
government authorities are beginning to consider and implement climate
change adaptation measures. A range of federal activities are underway,
including efforts to provide information and guidance to decision
makers. Certain federal programs are already helping officials make
decisions in response to a changing climate. For example, two programs
managed by the Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) help policy makers and managers
obtain the information they need to adapt to a changing climate. NOAA's
Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments program supports climate
change research to meet the needs of decision makers and policy
planners at the regional level. Similarly, NOAA's Sectoral Applications
Research Program is designed to help decision makers in different
sectors, such as coastal resource managers, use climate information to
respond to and plan for climate variability and change, among other
goals. Other agencies--including the Department of the Interior's
(Interior) U.S. Geological Survey and the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration--also manage programs to provide climate
information to decision makers.
Federal resource management agencies are also taking steps to adapt to
a changing climate. For example, the United States Department of
Agriculture's (USDA) Forest Service developed a strategic framework for
responding to climate change that recognizes the need to enhance the
capacity of forests and grasslands to adapt. In written testimony at a
March 3, 2009 hearing before the House Committee on Natural Resources,
Subcommittee on National Parks, Forests, and Public Lands, the Chief of
the Forest Service stated that dealing with risks and uncertainties
introduced or made worse by climate change will need to be a more
prominent part of the Forest Service's management decision processes.
[Footnote 3] Similarly, Interior recognized a number of adaptation-
related policy options for land managers in reports produced for its
Climate Change Task Force.[Footnote 4] For example, the task force
recognized the need to revise management plans to reflect the effects
of predicted climate conditions.
Other federal efforts are also attempting to link climate information
with the needs of decision makers. The Climate Change Science Program
(CCSP)--a multi-agency coordinating group that integrates federal
research on climate change--is in the process of developing a series of
"building blocks" that outline options for future climate change work,
including science to inform adaptation. The adaptation building block
includes support and guidance for federal, regional, and local efforts
to prepare for and respond to climate change, including characterizing
the need for adaptation, and developing, implementing, and evaluating
adaptation approaches. In addition, a recent CCSP report described
adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources on
federally owned and managed lands.[Footnote 5] Another example of
federal efforts to link climate information with the needs of decision
makers is the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Climate Ready
Estuaries program to develop and implement adaptation strategies in
coastal communities.[Footnote 6]
While adaptation is one of many competing priorities for decision
makers, certain state, local, and international governments are
nonetheless developing and implementing climate change adaptation
plans. For example, we just completed a site visit exploring Maryland's
adaptation initiatives. In August 2008, the state issued a
comprehensive strategy for reducing its vulnerability to climate
change, focusing on sea level rise and coastal storms. The state has
completed an extensive mapping effort to identify coastal vulnerability
and has begun educating coastal counties about changes that can be made
to local ordinances to reduce coastal erosion and increase resilience.
Specifically, it provided guidance to three coastal counties
recommending changes to planning documents, buildings codes, and local
laws to address the risks resulting from sea level rise. Two recent
reports by non-government research groups summarize other state and
local adaptation planning efforts.[Footnote 7] As part of our ongoing
work for the Select Committee, we plan to further explore the Maryland
example and examine additional international, federal, and local
adaptation planning and implementation efforts through four more site
visits, including the United Kingdom, a federal land management unit,
the City of Chicago, and King County, Washington. These site visits
will allow us to identify and document how existing adaptation efforts
were developed and implemented. Further, site visits will help us
identify the information and other needs of decision-makers, how the
federal government is addressing these needs, and how these efforts can
be improved.
Challenges in Adapting to Climate Change:
Several of our recent reports on climate change illustrate a number of
challenges faced by government officials when adapting to a changing
climate. Among them, (1) climate change is one of many competing
priorities for government officials, (2) a lack of guidance can
constrain the ability of officials to consider climate change in
management and planning decisions, (3) insufficient site-specific
information can reduce the capability of officials to manage the
effects of climate change on the resources they oversee, and (4)
officials are struggling to make decisions based on projected future
climate scenarios that may not reflect past conditions. Our ongoing
work for the Select Committee will continue to explore these and other
challenges by obtaining information from a broad range of federal,
state, and local officials knowledgeable about climate change
adaptation.
Competing priorities. Our August 2007 report on climate change on
federal lands shows how climate change impacts compete for the
attention of decision makers with many more immediate priorities.
[Footnote 8] The federal government manages nearly 30 percent of the
land in the United States. Three federal agencies within Interior--the
Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the
National Park Service--and USDA's Forest Service administer over 90
percent of these lands. NOAA administers Marine Protected Areas.
[Footnote 9] These agencies manage their resources for a variety of
purposes related to preservation; recreation; and in some cases,
resource use, yet each agency has distinct responsibilities for the
resources it administers. The agencies are generally authorized to plan
and manage for changes in resource conditions, regardless of the cause
that brings about the change. As such, federal resource management
agencies are generally authorized but not specifically required to
address changes in resource conditions resulting from climate change in
their actions and planning efforts.
The same report found that the resource management agencies we reviewed
did not at that time make climate change a priority, and that the
agencies' strategic plans did not specifically address climate change.
Resource managers explained that they had a wide range of
responsibilities and that, because none of the agencies designated
climate change as a priority, they focused first on near-term
activities that they were specifically required to undertake, leaving
less time and resources for longer-term issues such as climate change.
Resource managers told us that climate change effects were typically
not addressed in agency planning activities. Although resource
management agencies are now beginning to consider climate change
adaptation in planning decisions, this example illustrates how other
issues may overshadow climate change adaptation if it is not explicitly
designated as a priority.
Lack of guidance. Our August 2007 report also noted that resource
managers were constrained by limited guidance about whether or how to
address climate change and, therefore, were uncertain about what
actions, if any, they should take. In general, resource managers from
all of the agencies said that they needed specific guidance to
incorporate climate change into their management actions and planning
efforts. For example, officials from several federal land and water
resource management agencies said that guidance would help resolve
differences in their agencies about how to interpret broad resource
management authorities with respect to climate change and give them an
imperative to take action. While these agencies have started to issue
guidance to resource managers, this example shows how a lack of
guidance can limit efforts to adapt.
Lack of site-specific information. Our report also demonstrated that
resource managers did not have sufficient site-specific information to
plan for and manage the effects of climate change on the federal
resources they oversee. In particular, the managers lacked
computational models for local projections of expected changes. For
example, at that time, officials at the Florida Keys National Marine
Sanctuary said that they lacked adequate modeling and scientific
information to enable managers to predict change on a small scale, such
as that occurring within the sanctuary. Without such models, most of
the managers' options for dealing with climate change were limited to
reacting to already-observed effects on their units, making it
difficult to plan for future changes. Furthermore, these resource
managers generally lacked detailed inventories and monitoring systems
to provide them with an adequate baseline understanding of the plant
and animal species that existed on the resources they manage. Without
such information, it is difficult to determine whether observed changes
are within the normal range of variability.
Uncertainties in making decisions based on projected future conditions.
A recent report by the National Research Council (NRC) shows how
officials are struggling to make decisions based on future climate
scenarios instead of past climate conditions.[Footnote 10] According to
the report, requested by EPA and NOAA, government agencies, private
organizations, and individuals whose futures will be affected by
climate change are unprepared both conceptually and practically for
meeting the challenges and opportunities it presents. Many of their
usual practices and decision rules (for building bridges, implementing
zoning rules, using private motor vehicles, and so on) assume a
stationary climate--a continuation of past climate conditions,
including similar patterns of variation and the same probabilities of
extreme events. According to the NRC, that assumption, fundamental to
the ways people and organizations make their choices, is no longer
valid. Climate change will create a novel and dynamic decision
environment.
Our own 2007 climate change-related report on the Federal Emergency
Management Agency's (FEMA) National Flood Insurance Program, which
insures properties against flooding, and USDA's Federal Crop Insurance
Corporation, which insures crops against drought or other weather
disasters, reached similar conclusions, highlighting how historical
information may no longer be a reliable guide for decision making.
[Footnote 11] Among other things, the report contrasted the experience
of public and private insurers. Many major private insurers were
incorporating some near-term elements of climate change into their risk
management practices. In addition, some private insurers were
approaching climate change at a strategic level by publishing reports
outlining the potential industry-wide impacts and strategies to
proactively address the issue. This more proactive view was recently
echoed on March 17, 2009, by the National Association of Insurance
Commissioners, which adopted a mandatory requirement that insurance
companies disclose to regulators the financial risks they face from
climate change, as well as actions the companies are taking to respond
to those risks.
In contrast, our 2007 report noted that the agencies responsible for
the nation's key federal insurance programs had done little to develop
the kind of information needed to understand their programs' long-term
exposure to climate change for a variety of reasons. As a FEMA official
explained, the National Flood Insurance Program is designed to assess
and insure against current--not future--risks. Unlike the private
sector, neither this program nor the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation
had conducted an analysis to assess the potential impacts of an
increase in the frequency or severity of weather-related events on
their operations over the near-or long-term. Both FEMA and USDA have
committed to study these issues further and report to the Congress,
with USDA estimating completion by December 31, 2009.
Preliminary observations from our interviews with knowledgeable
stakeholders and review of existing adaptation reports confirm the
challenges discussed above, but also identify additional issues. For
example, certain documents we reviewed as part of our ongoing work for
the Select Committee identified the lack of public awareness about
adaptation as a challenge. Our continuing work will explore this issue
further and seek to identify other challenges warranting the attention
of policymakers by collecting information from diverse groups of
knowledgeable federal, state, and local officials.
Potential Adaptation Actions by the Congress and Federal Agencies:
Some of our recent climate change-related reports offer clues on the
types of actions federal agencies and the Congress could take to assist
states and communities in their efforts to adapt to climate change. Our
August 2007 report on federal land management, for example, recommended
that the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, and the Interior develop
guidance that advises resource managers on how to address climate
change effects and gather the information needed to do so. Our March
2007 report assessing the financial risks to federal insurance programs
found that their exposure to weather-related losses had grown
substantially and recommended that the Secretaries of Agriculture and
Homeland Security analyze the potential long-term fiscal implications
of climate change for the programs and report their findings to the
Congress.
Our May 2008 report on the economics of climate change also identified
actions that could assist officials in their efforts to adapt to a
changing climate.[Footnote 12] Some of the economists surveyed for this
report suggested, for example, reforming insurance subsidy programs in
areas vulnerable to natural disasters like hurricanes or flooding.
Several noted that a clear federal role exists for certain sectors,
such as water resource management, which could require additional
resources for infrastructure development, research, and managing
federal lands.
Our current effort for the Select Committee, focused more directly on
climate change adaptation than our prior reports, will provide
additional information and insights on the types of actions federal
agencies and the Congress could take to assist adaptation efforts. To
date, several interviews with knowledgeable stakeholders and evaluation
of existing adaptation reports suggested a need for improved
coordination among federal agencies and between federal, state, and
local governments. Some have also suggested the creation of a
centralized government entity to collect and share information about
climate change impacts and adaptation. We plan to explore these
observations in greater detail by obtaining information and
perspectives from a wide range of knowledgeable officials on the front
lines of the nation's efforts to adapt to a changing climate. We expect
to complete our ongoing work by late 2009.
Mr. Chairman, this concludes my prepared statement. I would be happy to
respond to any questions that you or other Members of the Subcommittee
may have at this time.
Contact and Staff Acknowledgments:
Contact points for our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public
Affairs may be found on the last page of this statement. For further
information about this testimony, please contact John Stephenson,
Director, Natural Resources and Environment at (202) 512-3841 or
stephensonj@gao.gov. Key contributors to this statement were Steven
Elstein (Assistant Director), Ben Shouse, and Joe Thompson. Chuck
Bausell, Kate Cardamone, Cindy Gilbert, Richard P. Johnson, Kirsten
Lauber, Jeanette Soares, and Ruth Solomon also made important
contributions.
[End of section]
Footnotes:
[1] Major greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4),
nitrous oxide (N2O), and synthetic gases (hydrofluorocarbons {HFCs},
perfluorocarbons {PFCs}, and sulfur hexafluoride {SF6}).
[2] See Climate Change: Agencies Should Develop Guidance for Addressing
the Effects on Federal Land and Water Resources, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-07-863], (Washington, D.C.: Aug. 7,
2007); Climate Change: Financial Risks to Federal and Private Insurers
in Coming Decades Are Potentially Significant, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-07-285], Mar. 16, 2007; and Climate
Change: Expert Opinion on the Economics of Policy Options to Address
Climate Change, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-605],
May 9, 2008.
[3] Also, on January 16, 2009, the Forest Service issued guidance for
addressing climate change considerations in land management planning
and project implementation.
[4] For more information about the Department of the Interior Climate
Change Task Force, see [hyperlink,
http://www.usgs.gov/global_change/doi_taskforce.asp].
[5] CCSP, 2008: Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-
sensitive ecosystems and resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change
Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research.
[Julius, S.H., J.M. West (eds.), J.S. Baron, B. Griffith, L.A. Joyce,
P. Kareiva, B.D. Keller, M.A. Palmer, C.H. Peterson, and J.M. Scott
(Authors)]. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA,
873 pp.
[6] Estuaries are places where rivers meet the sea.
[7] See Adaptation Planning: What U.S. States and Localities are Doing,
Prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, November 2007
(Updated January 2009), available at [hyperlink,
http://www.pewclimate.org/working-papers/adaptation], and A Survey of
Climate Change Adaptation Planning, The H. John Heinz III Center for
Science, Economics, and the Environment, Washington DC, 2007, available
at [hyperlink,
http://www.heinzctr.org/publications/meeting_reports.shtml].
[8] Climate Change: Agencies Should Develop Guidance for Addressing the
Effects on Federal Land and Water Resources, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-07-863], (Washington, D.C.: Aug. 7,
2007)
[9] Marine Protected Areas are areas of the marine environment that
have been reserved
by federal, state, territorial, tribal, or local laws or regulations to
provide lasting protection for part or all of the natural and cultural
resources therein.
[10] National Research Council (2009), Informing Decision in a Changing
Climate. Panel on Strategies and Methods for Climate-Related Decision
Support, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Division
of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The
National Academies Press.
[11] Climate Change: Financial Risks to Federal and Private Insurers in
Coming Decades Are Potentially Significant, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-07-285], (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 16,
2007)
[12] Climate Change: Expert Opinion on the Economics of Policy Options
to Address Climate Change, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-605], (Washington, D.C.: May 9,
2008)
[End of section]
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