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a Dynamic Environment' which was released on August 18, 2010. 

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Anticipating and Meeting Accountability Challenges in a Dynamic 
Environment: 

AICPA National Governmental Accounting and Auditing Update Conference: 

August 16, 2010: 

Gene L. Dodaro: 
Acting Comptroller General: 
U.S. Government Accountability Office: 

GAO-10-955CG: 

Overview: 

* GAO's Strategic Plan: 

* New and ongoing responsibilities for GAO: 

* Yellow Book update and International coordination: 

[End of section] 

GAO's Planning & Performance Documents: 

hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/sp.html: 

Strategic Plan: 

Performance Plan: 

Performance & Accountability Report: 

Strategic Planning Framework: 

Goal: Provide Timely, Quality Service to the Congress and the Federal 
Government to: Address Current and Emerging Challenges to the Well-
being and Financial Security of the American People related to: 
Objectives: 
* Health care needs; 
* Lifelong learning; 
* Benefits and protections for workers, families, and children; 
* Financial security; 
* Effective system of justice; 
* Viable communities; 
* Stable financial system and consumer protection; 
* Stewardship of natural resources and the environment; 
* Infrastructure. 

Goal: Provide Timely, Quality Service to the Congress and the Federal 
Government to: Respond to Changing Security Threats and the Challenges 
of Global Interdependence involving: 
Objectives: 
* Homeland security; 
* Military capabilities and readiness; 
* Advancement of U.S. Interests; 
* Global market forces. 

Goal: Help Transform the Federal Government to Address National 
Challenges by assessing: 
Objectives: 
* Government's fiscal position and options for closing gap; 
* Fraud, waste, and abuse; 
* Major management challenges and program risks. 

Goal: Maximize the Value of GAO by Enabling Quality, Timely Service to 
the Congress and Being a Leading Practices Federal Agency in the areas 
of: 
Objectives: 
* Efficiency, effectiveness and quality; 
* Diverse and inclusive work environment; 
* Professional networks and collaboration; 
* Institutional stewardship and resource management. 

[End of section] 

Trend 1: Threats Confronting U.S. National Security Interests: 

* Regional instability (Middle East, Central Asia, Africa). 

* Longstanding threats (extremism, terrorism, proliferation of 
weapons, cybersecurity). 

* Emerging threats (energy security, climate change, global recession). 

* Need for new capabilities alongside increasingly constrained 
resources. 

Related GAO work: 

* Reviewing U.S. efforts related to Afghanistan, Iraq and other 
regions in conflict, including reviewing the effect of drawing down 
resources in Iraq, providing more resources to Afghanistan, and 
retooling operations in Pakistan. 

* Tracking U.S. efforts to combat terrorism abroad. 

* Reviewing the government's efforts to identify and act on credible 
threats to homeland and border security, as well as those involving 
biological, chemical, and nuclear dimensions. 

* Analyzing the funding and costs of military operations and programs 
given the fiscal pressures facing the nation. 

* Evaluate efforts to ensure the reliability, security, and 
affordability of energy supply infrastructure and assess the 
implications of climate change for the federal government. 

[End of Trend 1] 

Trend 2: Fiscal Sustainability and Debt Challenges: 

Figure: Debt Held by the Public Under Two Fiscal Policy Simulations: 

[Refer to PDF for image: line graph] 

Historical high: 109% in 1946. 

Year: 2000; 	
Baseline Extended: 35.1%; 
Alternative: 35.1%. 

Year: 2001; 	
Baseline Extended: 33.0%; 
Alternative: 33.0%. 

Year: 2002; 	
Baseline Extended: 34.1%; 
Alternative: 34.1%. 

Year: 2003; 	
Baseline Extended: 36.2%; 
Alternative: 36.2%. 

Year: 2004; 	
Baseline Extended: 37.3%; 
Alternative: 37.3%. 

Year: 2005; 	
Baseline Extended: 37.5%; 
Alternative: 37.5%. 

Year: 2006; 	
Baseline Extended: 36.5%; 
Alternative: 36.5%. 

Year: 2007; 	
Baseline Extended: 36.2%; 
Alternative: 36.2%. 

Year: 2008; 	
Baseline Extended: 40.1%; 
Alternative: 40.1%. 

Year: 2009; 	
Baseline Extended: 53.0%; 
Alternative: 53.0%; 

Year: 2010; 	
Baseline Extended: 60.3%; 
Alternative: 60.7%. 

Year: 2011; 	
Baseline Extended: 65.3%; 
Alternative: 68.0%. 

Year: 2012; 	
Baseline Extended: 66.6%; 
Alternative: 72.8%. 

Year: 2013; 	
Baseline Extended: 66.3%; 
Alternative: 76.2%. 

Year: 2014; 	
Baseline Extended: 65.6%; 
Alternative: 79.6%. 

Year: 2015; 	
Baseline Extended: 65.4%; 
Alternative: 83.7%. 

Year: 2016; 	
Baseline Extended: 65.5%; 
Alternative: 88.3%. 

Year: 2017; 	
Baseline Extended: 65.5%; 
Alternative: 93.0%. 

Year: 2018; 	
Baseline Extended: 65.7%; 
Alternative: 98.2%. 

Year: 2019; 	
Baseline Extended: 66.1%; 
Alternative: 103.8%. 

Year: 2020; 	
Baseline Extended: 66.7%; 
Alternative: 109.8%. 

Year: 2021; 	
Baseline Extended: 67.5%; 
Alternative: 116.0%. 

Year: 2022; 	
Baseline Extended: 68.5%; 
Alternative: 122.0%. 

Year: 2023; 	
Baseline Extended: 69.8%; 
Alternative: 128.3%. 

Year: 2024; 	
Baseline Extended: 71.4%; 
Alternative: 134.7%. 

Year: 2025; 	
Baseline Extended: 73.3%; 
Alternative: 141.4%. 

Year: 2026; 	
Baseline Extended: 75.6%; 
Alternative: 148.6%. 

Year: 2027; 	
Baseline Extended: 78.2%; 
Alternative: 156.2%. 

Year: 2028; 	
Baseline Extended: 84.4%; 
Alternative: 172.5%. 

Year: 2030; 	
Baseline Extended: 88.0%; 
Alternative: 181.2%. 

Year: 2031; 	
Baseline Extended: 91.8%; 
Alternative: 190.3%. 

Year: 2032; 	
Baseline Extended: 96.0%; 
Alternative: 199.8%. 

Year: 2033; 	
Baseline Extended: 100.5%. 

Year: 2034; 	
Baseline Extended: 105.2%. 

Year: 2035; 	
Baseline Extended: 110.2%. 

Year: 2036; 	
Baseline Extended: 115.5%. 

Year: 2037; 	
Baseline Extended: 121.0%. 

Year: 2038; 	
Baseline Extended: 126.8%. 

Year: 2039; 	
Baseline Extended: 132.8%. 

Year: 2040; 	
Baseline Extended: 139.1%. 

Year: 2041; 	
Baseline Extended: 145.5%. 

Year: 2042; 	
Baseline Extended: 152.2%. 

Year: 2043; 	
Baseline Extended: 159.1%. 

Year: 2044; 	
Baseline Extended: 166.2%. 

Year: 2045; 	
Baseline Extended: 173.5%. 

Year: 2046; 	
Baseline Extended: 181.0%.
	
Year: 2047; 	
Baseline Extended: 188.7%. 

Year: 2048; 
Baseline Extended: 196.8%. 

Source: GAO. 

Note: Data are from GAO's January 2010 analysis based on the trustee 
assumptions for Social Security and Medicare. Some of the increase in 
debt has been used to purchase financial assets as part of programs to 
stabilize financial markets and stimulate the economy. The value of 
these financial assets has not been subtracted from the total debt 
held by public in our simulations. 

[End of figure] 

Table: Challenges Affecting the Federal Budget in the Near Term: 

2008: 
Oldest members of the baby-boom generation became eligible for early 
Social Security retirement benefits. 

2008: 
Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) outlays exceeded cash income. 

2010: 
Social Security runs first cash deficit since 1984. 

2010: 
45 percent of Medicare outlays funded by general revenue.[A] 

2011: 
Oldest members of the baby-boom generation become eligible for 
Medicare. 

Source: GAO. 

[A] Based on 2010 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the 
Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance 
Trust Funds (August 5, 2010). Projections showing the percentage of 
funding from general revenue reaching 45 percent by law trigger a 
"Medicare funding warning," requiring a proposal from the President in 
response. 

[End of table] 

Figure: Combined Federal, State, & Local Surpluses and Deficits 
(Percent of GDP): 

[Refer to PDF for image: multiple line graph] 

Year: 2000; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: 2.4%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: 2.1%; 
Alternative: federal only: 2.4%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: 2.1%. 

Year: 2001; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: 1.3%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: 0.3%; 
Alternative: federal only: 1.3%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: 0.3%. 

Year: 2002; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -1.5%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -2.9%; 
Alternative: federal only: -1.5%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -2.9%. 

Year: 2003; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -3.5%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -4.7%; 
Alternative: federal only: -3.5%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -4.7%. 

Year: 2004; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -3.6%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -4.5%; 
Alternative: federal only: -3.6%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -4.5%. 

Year: 2005; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -2.6%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -3.1%; 
Alternative: federal only: -2.6%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -3.1%. 

Year: 2006; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -1.9%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -2.2%; 
Alternative: federal only: -1.9%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -2.2%. 

Year: 2007; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -1.2%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -1.8%; 
Alternative: federal only: -1.2%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -1.8%. 

Year: 2008; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -3.2%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -4.2%; 
Alternative: federal only: -3.2%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -4.2%. 

Year: 2009; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -9.9%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -10.9%; 
Alternative: federal only: -9.9%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -10.9%. 

Year: 2010; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -9.2%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -10.2%; 
Alternative: federal only: -9.6%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -10.6%. 

Year: 2011; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -6.5%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -8%; 
Alternative: federal only: -8.9%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -10.4%. 

Year: 2012; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -4.1%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -5.6%; 
Alternative: federal only: -7.7%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -9.2%. 

Year: 2013; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -3.2%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -4.6%; 
Alternative: federal only: -7.3%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -8.7%. 

Year: 2014; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -2.7%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -4%; 
Alternative: federal only: -7.2%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -8.5%. 

Year: 2015; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -2.6%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -3.9%; 
Alternative: federal only: -7.5v
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -8.8%. 

Year: 2016; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -2.7%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -4.1%; 
Alternative: federal only: -8%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -9.3%. 

Year: 2017; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -2.6%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -4%; 
Alternative: federal only: -8.3%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -9.7%. 

Year: 2018; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -2.6%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -4.1%; 
Alternative: federal only: -8.7%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -10.2%. 

Year: 2019; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -3%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -4.5%; 
Alternative: federal only: -9.5%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -11%. 

Year: 2020; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -3%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -4.6%; 
Alternative: federal only: -10%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -11.5%. 

Year: 2021; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -3.3%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -4.9%; 
Alternative: federal only: -10.3%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -11.9%. 

Year: 2022; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -3.6%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -5.3%; 
Alternative: federal only: -10.7%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -12.3%. 

Year: 2023; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -4%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -5.6%; 
Alternative: federal only: -11%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -12.7%. 

Year: 2024; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -4.3%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -6%; 
Alternative: federal only: -11.4%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -13.1%. 

Year: 2025; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -4.7%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -6.4%; 
Alternative: federal only: -11.9%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -13.7%. 

Year: 2026; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -5%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -6.9%; 
Alternative: federal only: -12.5%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -14.4%. 

Year: 2027; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -5.4%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -7.3%; 
Alternative: federal only: -13.2%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -15%. 

Year: 2028; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -5.8v
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -7.8%; 
Alternative: federal only: -13.8%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -15.8%. 

Year: 2029; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -6.2%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -8.3%; 
Alternative: federal only: -14.4v
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -16.5%. 

Year: 2030; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -6.7%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -8.8%; 
Alternative: federal only: -15.1%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -17.2%. 

Year: 2031; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -7.1%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -9.3%; 
Alternative: federal only: -15.8%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -18%. 

Year: 2032; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -7.5%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -9.8%; 
Alternative: federal only: -16.5%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -18.7%. 

Year: 2033; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -8%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -10.3%; 
Alternative: federal only: -17.2%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -19.5%. 

Year: 2034; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -8.4%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -10.9%; 
Alternative: federal only: -17.9%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -20.3%. 

Year: 2035; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -8.8%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -11.4%; 
Alternative: federal only: -18.6%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -21.1%. 

Year: 2036; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -9.3%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -11.9%; 
Alternative: federal only: -19.3%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -21.9%. 

Year: 2037; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -9.7%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -12.5%; 
Alternative: federal only: -20%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -22.8%. 

Year: 2038; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -10.2%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -13%; 
Alternative: federal only: -20.7%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -23.6%. 

Year: 2039; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -10.6%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -13.6%; 
Alternative: federal only: -21.4%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -24.4%. 

Year: 2040; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -11%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -14.1%; 
Alternative: federal only: -22.1%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -25.2%. 

Year: 2041; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -11.5%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -14.6%; 
Alternative: federal only: -22.9%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -26%. 

Year: 2042; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -11.9%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -15.2%; 
Alternative: federal only: -23.6%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -26.9%. 

Year: 2043; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -12.3%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -15.7%; 
Alternative: federal only: -24.3%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -27.7%. 

Year: 2044; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -12.8%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -16.3%; 
Alternative: federal only: -25.1%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -28.6%. 

Year: 2045; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -13.3%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -16.9%; 
Alternative: federal only: -25.9%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -29.5%. 

Year: 2046; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -13.7%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -17.4%; 
Alternative: federal only: -26.6%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -30.3%. 

Year: 2047; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -14.2%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -18%; 
Alternative: federal only: -27.4%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -31.2%. 

Year: 2048; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -14.7%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -18.6%; 
Alternative: federal only: -28.2%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -32.2%. 

Year: 2049; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -15.2%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -19.3%; 
Alternative: federal only: -29%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -33.1%. 

Year: 2050; 
Baseline Extended: federal only: -15.7%; 
Baseline Extended: federal, state, and local: -19.9%; 
Alternative: federal only: -29.9%; 
Alternative: federal, state, and local: -34.1%. 

Source: GAO. 

Note: Data are from GAO's January 2010 federal simulations and March 
2010 state and local simulations. 

[End of figure] 

Not Just a U.S. Challenge: 

* Financial market stress in other major industrial nations. 

* Public debt levels in other major industrial countries have also 
increased dramatically. 

* Projections show many countries on a path of rising debt to GDP 
ratios. 

Moving Forward: 

* Budget Controls. 

* Creation of Commission. 

* Continued Public Education, Discussion, and Debate. 

Related GAO work: 

* Conducting work to assess duplication and overlap among federal 
programs and agencies. 

* Identifying elements to help address the nation's financial 
challenges including Social Security, tax reform, retirement, and
disability programs; opportunities to reduce spending; and reducing 
the gap between taxes owed and taxes collected. 

* Performing financial statement audits (IRS, Schedule of Federal 
Debt, FDIC, FHA, Consolidated Financial Statements, SEC). 

* Performing long-term fiscal simulations and analyses of federal
deficits, federal debt levels, and the state and local sector. 

* Identifying and recommending solutions to reduce the risk of waste, 
fraud, and abuse and improper payments. 

[End of Trend 2] 

Trend 3: Economic Recovery and Restored Growth: 

* Different scenarios for economic recovery; 

* Replacement of lost jobs; 

* Role of consumers; 

* Housing and commercial real estate; 

* The timing of fiscal & monetary support; 

* Managing concerns about inflation. 

Figure: Private Investment Has Fallen Sharply, but is Starting to 
Recover: 

[Refer to PDF for image: line graph] 

Billions of constant 2005 dollars: 

Periods of recession indicated on the graph: 
1953; 
1957; 
1960; 
1973-74; 
1980; 
1982; 
1990; 
2001; 
2008-2010. 

Year: 1950; 
Private investment: $215.6. 

Year: 1951; 
Private investment: $264.8. 

Year: 1952; 
Private investment: $234.5. 

Year: 1953; 
Private investment: $247.5. 

Year: 1954; 
Private investment: $221.6. 

Year: 1955; 
Private investment: $268.7. 

Year: 1956; 
Private investment: $286.0. 

Year: 1957; 
Private investment: $271.7. 

Year: 1958; 
Private investment: $235.7. 

Year: 1959; 
Private investment: $271.6. 

Year: 1960; 
Private investment: $331.7. 

Year: 1961; 
Private investment: $266.4. 

Year: 1962; 
Private investment: $334.3. 

Year: 1963; 
Private investment: $343.7. 

Year: 1964; 
Private investment: $379.5. 

Year: 1965; 
Private investment: $429.1. 

Year: 1966; 
Private investment: $484.2. 

Year: 1967; 
Private investment: $460.00. 

Year: 1968; 
Private investment: $472.9. 

Year: 1969; 
Private investment: $512.7. 

Year: 1970; 
Private investment: $476.9. 

Year: 1971; 
Private investment: $478.4. 

Year: 1972; 
Private investment: $534.0. 

Year: 1973; 
Private investment: $595.5. 

Year: 1974; 
Private investment: $675.8. 

Year: 1975; 
Private investment: $628.1. 

Year: 1976; 
Private investment: $476.1. 

Year: 1977; 
Private investment: $610.5. 

Year: 1978; 
Private investment: $696.1. 

Year: 1979; 
Private investment: $777.5. 

Year: 1980; 
Private investment: $781.1. 

Year: 1981; 
Private investment: $795.1. 

Year: 1982; 
Private investment: $692.5. 

Year: 1983; 
Private investment: $645.1. 

Year: 1984; 
Private investment: $921.8. 

Year: 1985; 
Private investment: $927.4. 

Year: 1986; 
Private investment: $967.4. 

Year: 1987; 
Private investment: $945.8. 

Year: 1988; 
Private investment: $964.4. 

Year: 1989; 
Private investment: $1046.0. 

Year: 1990; 
Private investment: $1021.1. 

Year: 1991; 
Private investment: $896.2 

Year: 1992; 
Private investment: $927.8. 

Year: 1993; 
Private investment: $1055.0. 

Year: 1994; 
Private investment: $1166.9. 

Year: 1995; 
Private investment: $1282.1. 

Year: 1996; 
Private investment: $1287.1. 

Year: 1997; 
Private investment: $1451.3. 

Year: 1998; 
Private investment: $1672.7. 

Year: 1999; 
Private investment: $1810.0 

Year: 2000; 
Private investment: $1887.8. 

Year: 2001; 
Private investment: $1882.7. 

Year: 2002; 
Private investment: $1789.3. 

Year: 2003; 
Private investment: $1813.1. 

Year: 2004; 
Private investment: $1970.0. 

Year: 2005; 
Private investment: $2170.3. 

Year: 2006; 
Private investment: $2131.5. 

Year: 2007; 
Private investment: $2264.7. 

Year: 2008; 
Private investment: $2132.6. 

Year: 2009; 
Private investment: $2026.5. 

Year: 2010; 
Private investment: $1601.7. 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. 

[End of figure] 

American Recovery & Reinvestment Act: 

* Signed February 17, 2009. 

* Purpose:
- Preserve/create jobs and promote recovery; 
- Assist those most hurt by the recession; 
- Invest in infrastructure; 
- Stabilize state and local government budgets. 

* Total cost (tax and spending): $862 billion, including over
$626 billion in additional spending (CBO Estimate). 

Figure: Projected Versus Actual Federal Outlays to States and 
Localities Under the Recovery Act: 

[Refer to PDF for image: vertical bar graph] 

Year: 2010; 
Estimated: $48.9 billion; 
Actual Federal outlays as of March 31, 2010: $52.9 billion. 

Year: 2011; 
Estimated: $107.7 billion; 
Actual Federal outlays as of March 31, 2010: $50.9 billion. 

[$103.8 billion in actual Federal Outlays as of March 31, 2010] 

Year: 2011; 
Estimated: $63.4 billion. 

Year: 2012; 
Estimated: $23.3 billion. 

Year: 2013; 
Estimated: $14.4 billion. 

Year: 2014; 
Estimated: $9.1 billion. 

Year: 2015; 
Estimated: $5.7 billion. 

Year: 2016; 
Estimated: $2.5 billion. 

Source: GAO analysis of data from CBO, Recovery.gov and Federal Funds 
Information for States. 

[End of figure] 

Figure: Composition of State and Local Recovery Act Funding, Fiscal 
Years 2009 Actual and 2012 Estimated: 

[Refer to PDF for image: 2 pie-charts] 

Actual Fiscal Year 2009: $52.9 billion: 
Health: 60%; 
Education and Training: 28%; 
Transportation: 6%; 
Income Security: 3%; 
Community Development: 3%; 
Energy and Environment: 1%. 

Estimated Fiscal Year 2012: $23.3 billion: 
Health: 1%; 
Education and Training: 19%; 
Transportation: 30%; 
Income Security: 17%; 
Community Development: 16%; 
Energy and Environment: 17%. 

Source: GAO analysis of CBO and FFIS data. 

[End of figure] 

Recovery Act: GAO's Monitoring of Selected States: 

[Refer to PDF for image: map of the U.S.] 

The following states are highlighted on the map: 

1. Arizona; 
2. California; 
3. Colorado; 
4. Florida; 
5. Georgia; 
6. Illinois; 
7. Iowa; 
8. Massachusetts; 
9. Michigan; 
10. Mississippi; 
11. New Jersey; 
12. New York; 
13. North Carolina; 
14. Ohio; 
15. Pennsylvania; 
16. Texas; 
17. Washington, D.C. 

Source: GAO analysis. 

[End of figure] 

Recovery Act: GAO Recommendations: 

* GAO has made 28 recommendations to 5 federal agencies (DOT, HUD, 
Education, DOL, and OMB) regarding: 
- Accountability and Transparency; 
- Reporting on Impact and Guidance; 
- Resource Allocation and Capacity. 

Single Audit: GAO Recommendations: 

Leverage Single Audit as an effective oversight tool: 

* Move to earlier reporting on internal controls; 
* Focus on Recovery Act programs; 
* Give relief for low-risk programs; 
* Fund more timely, effective Single Audits. 

Single Audits: GAO Matter for Congressional Consideration: 

* amending the Single Audit Act or enact new legislation that
provides for more timely internal control reporting, as well as audit
coverage for smaller Recovery Act programs with high risk. 

* create mechanisms to provide additional resources to support those
charged with carrying out the Single Audit and related audits. 

Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP): 

* Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 created $700
billion TARP in October 2008; 

* GAO given statutory oversight role; 

* GAO's TARP reports' recommendations follow 3 themes: 
- Monitoring the use of funds to meet the Act's objectives; 
- Articulating a better communication strategy; 
- Ensuring effective Treasury management. 

* Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 
reduces TARPís authority to $475 billion and prohibits any additional 
obligations unless the program or initiative had already been 
initiated prior to June 25, 2010. 

Status of Troubled Asset Relief Program Outstanding Balances: 

As of May 7, 2010, Treasury had disbursed about $382 billion of the 
almost $700 billion in program funds, and had received repayments of 
about $187 billion. 

A total of about $193 billion remains outstanding (see table below). 

Table: Status of TARP Funds as of May 7, 2010 (dollars in billions): 

Program: Capital Purchase Program; 
Gross Outstanding Balance: $65.3[A]. 

Program: AIG; 
Gross Outstanding Balance: $47.5. 
		
Program: Targeted Investment Program; 
Gross Outstanding Balance: $0.0. 

Program: Consumer & Business Lending Initiative: Term Asset-backed 
Securities Loan Facility & Small Business and Community Lending 
Initiative; 
Gross Outstanding Balance: $0.1. 

Program: Automotive Industry Financing Program; 
Gross Outstanding Balance: $70.4. 

Program: Public-Private Investment Program; 
Gross Outstanding Balance: $9.2. 

Program: Totals; 
Gross Outstanding Balance: $192.5. 
		
[A] CPP amount outstanding excludes about $2.3 billion for a 
disbursement that Treasury has deemed to have no value. 

Note: This table does not reflect the approximately $131 disbursed 
under the Home Affordable Modification Program. 

[End of table] 

Status of U.S. Government Ownership of Selected Companies: 

Figure: U.S. Government Ownership (Common Equity) Percentages: 

[Refer to PDF for image: horizontal bar graph] 

Company: AIG; 
U.S. Government Ownership (Common Equity): 79.8%. 

Company: GM; 
U.S. Government Ownership (Common Equity): 60.8%. 

Company: GMAC; 
U.S. Government Ownership (Common Equity): 56.0%. 

Company: Citigroup; 
U.S. Government Ownership (Common Equity): 27.1%. 

Company: Chrysler; 
U.S. Government Ownership (Common Equity): 9.9%. 

Note: All percentages relate to TARP, except for AIG which relates to 
the U.S. Government's beneficial interest in a trust. Also, the 
percentages only represent common equity and do not reflect additional 
financial instruments held by the U.S. Government in these entities 
(e.g., preferred stock, warrants, and direct loans). 

[End of figure] 

Related GAO work: 

* Assessing the effectiveness of financial and regulatory reform 
efforts and plans to ensure the stability of the overall banking,
housing, and financial markets. 

* Monitoring and evaluating various federal assistance programs 
designed stabilize U.S. financial markets and boost the economy, 
including investments in infrastructure and job expansion. 

* Continuing to perform our responsibilities under the Recovery Act. 

* Providing analysis on the functioning of the mortgage market and the 
ultimate disposition of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. 

* Monitoring services to assist job seekers and supports for low-
income families. 

Modernizing The U.S. Financial Regulatory System: 

Financial Regulation: A Framework for Crafting and Assessing Proposals 
to Modernize the Outdated U.S. Financial Regulatory System: 

* Explains the origins of the current financial regulatory system; 

* Describes market developments and changes that pose challenges to 
the current system; 

* Presents an evaluation framework that Congress and others can use to 
craft or evaluate potential regulatory reform efforts. 

(GAO-09-216, Jan. 8, 2009) 

Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010: 

The Act was signed into law on July 21, 2010. 

Key provisions include: 

* Creation of a consumer protection bureau. 

* Power to seize and close down large failing firms. 

* Most derivative deals will go through central clearinghouses. 

* Creation of financial services oversight council. 

The Act includes 44 mandated studies by GAO including: 

* Effectiveness and impact of various appraisal methods. 

* Evaluation of adequacy and gaps in state and federal regulation of 
financial planners. 

* Evaluate the role and importance of the GASB in the municipal 
securities markets and the way the GASB is funded. 

* Audit of Federal Reserve emergency credit facilities. 

* Efforts to combat mortgage foreclosure rescue scams and loan 
modification fraud. 

[End of Trend 3] 

Trend 4: The Changing Dynamics of Global Interdependence: 

Figure: International Reserves in Developing & Emerging Economies Have 
Increased More Than Twelvefold: 

[Refer to PDF for image: multiple line graph] 

Dollars in trillions: 
		
Year: 1990; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.36; 
Advanced Economies: $0.63; 
World: $0.99. 

Year: 1991; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.27; 
Advanced Economies: $0.78; 
World: $1.05. 

Year: 1992; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.28; 
Advanced Economies: $0.77; 
World: $1.05. 

Year: 1993; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.34; 
Advanced Economies: $0.81; 
World: $1.15. 

Year: 1994; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.40; 
Advanced Economies: $0.91; 
World: $1.31. 

Year: 1995; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.50; 
Advanced Economies: $1.03; 
World: $1.53. 

Year: 1996; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.59; 
Advanced Economies: $1.11; 
World: $1.70. 

Year: 1997; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.65; 
Advanced Economies: $1.11; 
World: $1.76. 

Year: 1998; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.66; 
Advanced Economies: $1.15; 
World: $1.81. 

Year: 1999; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.70; 
Advanced Economies: $1.23; 
World: $1.93. 

Year: 2000; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.76; 
Advanced Economies: $1.31; 
World: $2.07. 

Year: 2001; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.85; 
Advanced Economies: $1.35; 
World: $2.19. 

Year: 2002; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $1.02; 
Advanced Economies: $1.55; 
World: $2.57. 

Year: 2003; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $1.32; 
Advanced Economies: $1.88; 
World: $3.21. 

Year: 2004; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $1.75; 
Advanced Economies: $2.18; 
World: $3.92. 

Year: 2005; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $2.16; 
Advanced Economies: $2.13; 
World: $4.29. 

Year: 2006; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $2.85; 
Advanced Economies: $2.30; 
World: $5.14. 

Year: 2007; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $4.04; 
Advanced Economies: $2.47; 
World: $6.52. 

Year: 2008;
Emerging and Developing Economies: $4.50; 
Advanced Economies: $2.54; 
World: $7.03. 

Source: GAO analysis of International Monetary Fund data. 

[End of figure] 

Related GAO work: 

* Understanding the effects of a global supplier base on U.S. national 
security interests and evaluating the effectiveness of programs to 
protect critical technologies. 

* Evaluating efforts to ensure a safe food supply. 

* Evaluating the effectiveness of federal programs to prevent, prepare 
for, and respond to public health emergencies. 

* Evaluating programs to improve the U.S. image abroad. 

* Assessing U.S. export promotion programs and other trade-related 
jobs creation efforts. 

* Analyzing energy market regulation, competition, and information. 

[End of Trend 4] 

Trend 5: Advances in Science and Technology: 

* Nanotechnology; 

* Biomedical technology; 

* Information technology: 
- Quantum computing; 
- Cloud computing; 
- Virtualization technologies; 
- Health IT. 

Figure: China Has Caught Up to the United States in Terms of the 
Number of Scientific Researchers: 

[Refer to PDF for image: multiple line graph] 

Full-time equivalents (in thousands): 

Year: 1995; 
Russia: 8; 
Taiwan: No data; 
Singapore: 610; 
China: 522; 
South Korea: 100; 
Japan: 673; 
European Union: 964; 
United States: 1036. 

Year: 1996; 
Russia: 9; 
Taiwan: 46; 
Singapore: 562; 
China: 548; 
South Korea: 99; 
Japan: 617; 
European Union: 960; 
United States: 1098. 

Year: 1997; 
Russia: 10; 
Taiwan: 48; 
Singapore: 533; 
China: 589; 
South Korea: 103; 
Japan: 625; 
European Union: 956; 
United States: 1160. 

Year: 1998; 
Russia: 11; 
Taiwan: 54; 
Singapore: 493; 
China: 486; 
South Korea: 93; 
Japan: 653; 
European Union: 994; 
United States: 1210. 

Year: 1999; 
Russia: 13; 
Taiwan: 55; 
Singapore: 497; 
China: 531; 
South Korea: 100; 
Japan: 659; 
European Union: 1036; 
United States: 1261. 

Year: 2000; 
Russia: 17; 
Taiwan: 56; 
Singapore: 506; 
China: 695; 
South Korea: 108; 
Japan: 648; 
European Union: 1079; 
United States: 1289. 

Year: 2001; 
Russia: 17; 
Taiwan: 60; 
Singapore: 506; 
China: 743; 
South Korea: 136; 
Japan: 676; 
European Union: 1116; 
United States: 1320. 

Year: 2002; 
Russia: 18; 
Taiwan: 70; 
Singapore: 492; 
China: 811; 
South Korea: 142; 
Japan: 647; 
European Union: 1174; 
United States: 1343. 

Year: 2003; 
Russia: 20; 
Taiwan: 75; 
Singapore: 488; 
China: 862; 
South Korea: 151; 
Japan: 675; 
European Union: 1206; 
United States: 1431. 

Year: 2004; 
Russia: 21; 
Taiwan: 81; 
Singapore: 478; 
China: 926; 
South Korea: 156; 
Japan: 677; 
European Union: 1239; 
United States: 1394. 

Year: 2005; 
Russia: 24; 
Taiwan: 89; 
Singapore: 465; 
China: 1119; 
South Korea: 180; 
Japan: 705; 
European Union: 1292; 
United States: 1388. 

Year: 2006; 
Russia: 25; 
Taiwan: 95; 
Singapore: 464; 
China: 1224; 
South Korea: 200; 
Japan: 710; 
European Union: 1342; 
United States: 1426. 

Year: 2007; 
Russia: 27; 
Taiwan: 104; 
Singapore: 469; 
China: 1423; 
South Korea: 222; 
Japan: 710; 
European Union: 1360; 
United States: 1442. 

Source: National Science Board. 

Note: 2007 data for United States are estimated based on annual growth 
rate between 1995 and 2006. 

[End of figure] 

Related GAO work: 

* Performing specialized studies and technology assessments of a wide 
range of science and technology issues, such as climate change, the 
challenges of developing sophisticated space and defense systems, and 
green energy. 

* Reviewing the effectiveness of computer and network security at 
federal agencies to better ensure the protection of government and
personal information. 

* Assessing the government's planning, implementation, and use of IT. 

* Assessing the management and results of the federal investment in 
science and technology and the effectiveness of efforts to protect
intellectual property. 

* Reviewing federal efforts to turn around low-performing schools, to
enhance oversight of charter schools, and to establish effective 
teacher evaluation and compensation programs. 

[End of Trend 5] 

Trend 6: Increasing Impact of Networks and Virtualization: 

* Less-expensive technology that is increasingly more powerful. 

* Greater prevalence of wireless networks. 

* More powerful portable devices. 

* Increased collaboration and sharing at home, in school, and at work. 

* Consumers are becoming content creators. 

* Location and time independence (telework, virtual meetings). 

Related GAO work: 

* Assessing federal efforts to promote affordable access to telephone 
and broadband Internet services. 

* Reviewing the management of government telecommunications and 
interconnected systems and federal agencies' effectiveness in 
providing secure, reliable, and fast Internet and Web connections. 

* Assessing DHS's efforts to enhance the resiliency of critical 
national assets, networks, and systems. 

* Analyzing and supporting efforts to improve the federal workforce 
infrastructure. 

[End of Trend 6] 

Trend 7: Shifting Roles in Government and Governance: 

* Evolving roles for the public, private, and NGO sectors. 

* Contracting. 

* State and local government. 

* Non-profit and non-governmental organizations. 

Related GAO work: 

* Focusing on major areas that are at high-risk, including the U.S.
Postal Service's financial condition, oversight of food and drug 
safety, and cybersecurity efforts. 

* Assessing the government's strategy for managing its reliance on 
contractors to ensure that agencies determine the right mix of as well 
as proper roles and responsibilities for government and contractor 
employees. 

* Identifying ways to improve the acquisition of goods and services by 
federal agencies. 

* Identifying opportunities to improve the coordination, 
collaboration, and governance of networks of governmental and 
nongovernmental organizations to address complex national issues. 

[End of Trend 7] 

Trend 8: Demographic and Societal Changes Confronting Young and Old: 

Figure: Fewer Workers Will Be Supporting Each Retiree: 

[Refer to PDF for image: line graph] 
	
Year: 1960; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Historical: 5.1. 
	
Year: 1970; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Historical: 3.7. 
	
Year: 1980; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Historical: 3.2. 

Year: 1990; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Historical: 3.4. 

Year: 2000; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Historical: 3.4 

Year: 2010; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 3.0. 

Year: 2020; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.4. 

Year: 2030; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.2. 

Year: 2040; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.1. 

Year: 2050; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.1. 

Year: 2060; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.1. 

Year: 2070; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.0. 

Year: 2080; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.0. 

Year: 2085; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 1.9. 

Source: Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees. 

[End of figure] 

Related GAO work: 

* Supporting health care financing and reform efforts through analyses 
of Medicare, Medicaid, and other health programs. 

* Assessing policy and administrative challenges to the federal 
government in providing for Americans' financial security in 
retirement, as well as options and strategies to help individuals
ensure retirement security for themselves and their families. 

* Assessing financial and administrative challenges to providing
employer-sponsored pensions and retaining older Americans in the 
workforce, and their implications for retirement security. 

* Evaluating the federal government's efforts to assist communities
with combating crime and to safely and effectively manage a growing 
federal prison population. 

[End of Trend 8] 

[End of section] 

Other New & Ongoing Work for GAO: 

* High-Risk List. 

- 2010 Census. 

* Overlap and duplication in government agencies and programs. 

* Appointing members of health care advisory committees, commissions, 
and boards. 

- Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. 

- Other existing laws. 

Table: Commissions/Committees/Boards Appointed by GAO under the
Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA): 

Name: Advisory Board to Consumer Operated and Oriented Plan (COOP) 
Program; 
Number and Term: 15 members; Board terminates when it completes duties 
or by Dec 31, 2015; 
Appointment Date: June 23, 2010. 

Name: National Health Care Workforce commission; 
Number and Term: 15 members; staggered 3-year terms; 
Appointment Date: September 30, 2010. 

Name: Governing Board, Patient Centered Outcomes Research Institute 
(PCOR); 
Number and Term: 19 members, plus NIH and AHRQ Directors are also 
members; staggered 6-year terms; 
Appointment Date: September 23, 2010. 

Name: Methodology Committee, PCOR Institute; 
Number and Term: Up to 15 members, including AHRQ and NIH Directors; 
Appointment Date: November/December, 2010 (related to timing of 
establishment of PCOR). 

Name: Medicare Consumer Advisory Council; 
Number and Term: 10 members; 
Appointment Date: 2014 (related to creation of Independent Payment 
Advisory Board). 

Name: Review Panel for Applicants to State Demonstration Program for 
developing alternatives to current tort litigation for dispute 
resolutions for health providers; 
Number and Term: At least 9 but not more than 13; 
Appointment Date: (related to establishment of program by DHHS). 

[End of table] 

Table: Commissions/Committees/Boards Currently Appointed by GAO under 
Other Laws: 

Name: Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC); 
Number and Term: 17 members; staggered 3-year terms; 
Appointment Date/Month: May, annually. 

Name: Medicaid and CHIP Payment and Access Commission (MACPAC); 
Number and Term: 17 members; staggered 3-year terms; 
Appointment Date/Month: January, annually. 

Name: Health Information Technology Policy Committee (HIT); 
Number and Term: 13 members; staggered 3-year terms; 
Appointment Date/Month: April, annually. 

[End of section] 

2011 Yellow Book: Projected Dates: 

June 2010: 

* Issue Exposure Draft of 2011 Revision of GAGAS. 

September 2010: 

* Comments due on Exposure Draft, 

February - March 2011: 

* Issue 2011 Revision of GAGAS. 

* Effective date to be determined. 

[End of section] 

International Coordination: 

Donor Funding Initiative: 

* Addresses need to augment and strengthen support to Supreme Audit 
Institutions (SAls) in developing countries. 

* MOU signed in Brussels in October 2009 by INTOSAI and 15 Donors: 
- African Development Bank, European Commission, Inter-American 
Development Bank, IMF, World Bank, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Ireland, 
Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United 
States. 

INTOSAI Global Financial Crisis Task Force: 

* INTOSAI chair asked GAO to lead the Task Force. 

* GAO hosted kick-off meeting in June 2009. 

* 25 countries formed 4 subgroups looking at origins of the crisis and 
how to avoid future crises. 

* First subgroup reports are expected in June 2010. 

[End of section] 

On the Web: 

Web site: [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cghome/index.html] 

Contact: 

Chuck Young, Managing Director, Public Affairs: 
YoungC1@gao.gov (202) 512-4800: 
U.S. Government Accountability Office: 
441 G Street NW, Room 7149: 
Washington, D.C. 20548: 

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if you wish to reproduce this material separately. 

[End of presentation]